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cover of episode The Summer Playbook for Stocks 6/3/25

The Summer Playbook for Stocks 6/3/25

2025/6/3
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Halftime Report

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Joe Terranova: 我认为技术面和市场动能非常强劲,不支持市场即将崩溃的观点。收益率已经稳定下来,而且许多标普500指数成分股都创下了52周新高,这表明市场更有可能上涨而不是下跌。我认为目前市场最大的痛苦交易可能是向上突破,因为市场情绪并未完全反映价格的实际情况。我认为我们可能会看到市场突破历史新高。 Stephanie Link: 我更关注基本面,并认为经济表现好于预期,这对企业盈利有利。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的追踪数据显示本季度增长率为4.6%,虽然我个人认为实际增长率可能在2%到2.5%之间,但这仍然远好于衰退。个人收入数据也超出预期,消费支出稳健,通货膨胀率也处于健康水平。我认为市场正在对这些积极因素做出反应,包括强劲的盈利和收入增长,以及收益率的稳定。我相信今年全年可以看到10%到12%的盈利增长。 Jason Snipe: 我认为盈利非常积极,标普500指数的盈利增长率接近13%,盈利超出预期的比率高达78%。此外,大约48%的标普500指数成分股的交易价格高于200日移动平均线,这与一个季度前的情况大不相同。虽然我认为基本面是积极的,但我也注意到一些公司在盈利报告中缺乏明确的指引,这表明未来几个季度可能会出现一些下调。因此,我认为夏季市场可能会在一个区间内波动,但总体而言,我对市场持建设性态度。 Scott Wapner: 我认为市场正在关注好于预期的经济数据、强劲的盈利和收入增长,以及收益率的稳定。虽然债券市场存在一些潜在的裂缝,但市场似乎并不太关心这些问题,直到它们真正成为问题。我认为第三季度可能会面临一些挑战,因为届时债券发行量将会增加,这可能会导致债券市场出现一些动荡。不过,我认为我们可能会突破历史新高,但不会在短期内大幅突破这些高点。

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Chapters
The Investment Committee discusses the potential for record stock market highs in the coming months, considering technical indicators, momentum, and recent economic data. Concerns about rising yields and the impact of potential trade wars are also debated.
  • Signs point to new record highs, with the market only 3% away from the S&P 500's all-time high.
  • Technical indicators and momentum remain strong.
  • Yields have calmed down, reducing concerns.
  • Strong earnings and better-than-expected economic growth are supporting the market.
  • Potential issuance challenges and bond market contention could pose challenges in the third quarter.

Shownotes Transcript

Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the Summer Setup for stocks as another firm says record highs are coning in the months ahead. Plus, the Committee share their latest portfolio moves. And later, the desk debate the rideshare wars heating up, with Waymo, Uber and Tesla battling for dominance in the space. 

Investment Committee Disclosures)