Trading Trump and Tariffs 11/26/24
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supply i'm scot Walker and you're listening to c nbc halftime report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at twelve eastern. Listen in. 2， thanks so much. Welcome to the half time report.

I'm scotland in front and center this hour terabits in the rally and what potential new trade actions could mean for your money? We will debate that with the investment committee, what all of that means to the markets of force joining me for the hour today, josh Brownstein y link, jim laban doll Carry firestone. We will go to the market where we do have a mixed picture.

You can see the doll is red S N pee and the nazi c are a little bit in the Green the day. But we begin our top story is related to the lead that I just read about these potential tariff s because that's what they are right now. Um jim van, though you sold general motors on the news of possible terabits mean the president intellectual saying that he's going to impose them canada and mexico was going to double down a bit on the china once as well why did you sell gm on that social media post?

Yeah i'm listening. You freeze that very carefully with the idea of possible terror .

possible yeah .

and and it's not certain is what i'm hearing you say. And I agree. However, I lived through this in the first trumpet administration owning gm during that trade war and IT was Frankly very unpleasant.

I don't want to go through IT again. And when I think about the actual number, number of cars a that come from mexico to be sold into us, putting at twenty five percent tariff on those is going to do many things. It's going to raise the Prices of those cars that's going to eat into demand.

We already know that consumers are having a hard time to adJusting Prices for cars as they are right now or it's going to eat into margins for gm or both. General motors has been on fire. I think we can agree with that.

The results have been fabulous. Analyst estimates have been going up. But with these terrifying, I think those analyst estimates are gonna to go down.

I'll be IT. We don't know that they're actually going to happen. I do think though, based on the experience of the first trumpet administration, generally speaking, when he says he's gone to do something.

he's going to do something, sure. But I mean, he has used the threat of tariffs leverage before. Yes, in negotiations which have some today wondering whether this is simply a cl vo, the opening clavo into a more negotiation.

And that I would ask you on a day like today, why isn't today a buy? Why isn't in an eight and a half percent cell off on the stock you've loved for a variety of reasons, buy back the baLance sheet? You've made the case that consumers are hanging in in you need new cars, the cars on the road of age. All the things that you have listed over the past many months, wison today are buying opportunities.

Well, IT may turn out that IT is a buying opportunity. I'm not going to rule out the idea that I might get back into the name, but also lets give the context here. This is a stock that's up almost one hundred percent in twelve months.

It's had a fabulous run. And if this news were not there, I do think you could get towards seventy dollars a share. However, I simply can't ignore this news.

And I have to you know, I have to reflect on the large game that i've had so far in IT. I know people like to often and say to me what you ve been in IT for so long. true.

I have been in IT for a long time. It's actually been a decent performer. IT has under performed the S M.

P. Five hundred. I will grant you that. But over the last ten years, that had an annual return of eight percent, it's not bad. And I just I can't ignore these news again. Just going back to where I started, having lived through once already, I have the experience from which judgment of my judgment says, let's sell IT let the does settle. He will get back.

Do you have a view on this, josh?

I would, I would take, I would take the president at his, the incoming president at his word, he'll probably do something. But I think most of what's probably going to happen is talking and negotiating. I read trust book, the art of the deal.

I understand he didn't write, he dictated IT, but there is an entire red chapter about his negotiating strategy, which is you walk into the room and you punched the other person in the mouth, metaphorically ally, it's effective. IT gets people's attention. I'm not a huge fan of all this, but i'm just gonna you.

We've seen numerous instances where starting off the negotiation as a hardliner and then ultimately coming to a deal had been effective during the first term, and I wouldn't rule that out this time. So i'm not saying, James, trade is is not a good trade. He's made money with gm and I totally get not one to sit through this for the next year.

But the market is not really reacting. They have individual stock crisis reacting to this. But overall, the market is sort of calling the love.

And then the question becomes, is scotland and there to just kind of like White wash the things that trump s tweet and maybe spin them? Or is he there in a consulting role where he can make some important points about the advocacy of these things? If you think back to some of the agricultural tariff s that china retaliated with, they were our largest exports market.

In twenty fourteen, they bought twenty something billion dollars work of us. Agricultural exports. And then in twenty nineteen they bought more like nine billion IT had a huge negative impact.

The trumpet administration turned around and did a twenty eight billion dollar, a multiyear subsidy to U. S. Farmers in order to not lose that vote.

That's more than we spent on nuclear. That's more than we spent on navy destroyers. That's more than the state department's budget. So sometimes you'll see a tf.

You'll see a trade war and then you will see the federal government come around the back and then say sorry about that. Here's what we're gonna for this industrial, right? So I think the major point here is, yes, take IT seriously. No, don't take IT literally.

So you're the loads of the day for the stock, which is having its first day, by the way, since december of twenty, twenty two. So we will continue to, you know obviously watch that stuff. It's not like people who been buying this market didn't know that there was turfs on the table, the president elect campaign on that.

It's the playbook that we already saw in the first term. I make that point simply because the S M. Peace up four percent in the election came three weeks and bank of amErica client close today suggest that people are buying everything.

That's their words. Um for the third consecutive week, inflows are accelerating to the highest level. Since september, nine of eleven sectors have been bought. So what do we make of this news that you have to figure figure in a factor in possible terabits to the belief that the markets got a pretty good runway ahead of IT because of policies that are expected to stimulate growth? And if they get IT, all right, you grow you, you lower the deficit, you don't have a big pickup in inflation, you increase oil production, all those things, they're going to stimulate growth in this country and lead the Prices potentially coming down.

And we're starting at a point of two point six percent GDP growth. So we're already in a position of strength. We're going to talk about the consumer later.

Individual stocks that the consumer is doing very well. Retail sales came in at four point six percent year over year. I PMI services near sixty.

We have a reassuring tail in that is happening. One point eight trillion dollars of mega projects around the world are to be expected in. Only sixteen percent have started.

So this will continue. And I think that trump, obviously with pro growth, less regulation, let lower taxes, will continue that growth. Is that a little more inflation? yes.

Do we have to deal with tariff noise? yes. I think china is a done deal that thirty, thirty five percent terf.

He wants to make IT more expensive to do business in china, and he wants to move supply chains around the world, including here in the united states. Now, by the way, india, as you know, I am a big fan of. And so mexico and canada, sord been said, there are probably negotiation tactics.

It's very hard to increase terrorist s under the U. S. M, C. A policy. So IT will take a lot longer to do something like that to mexico and canada. Not saying it's not gonna happen, but I don't think it's gonna to the size that we're hearing about.

right? So if you've been buying on the belief Carry that the economy is going to have sizable pick up in the in the years and years ahead, you go to the Russell Russell, up ten percent a month, first enter day high and some three years for the russia two thousand small caps. Wolf now says three thousands in play.

The three thousand level is in play. We're twenty four. And change that seem reasonable to you. Is this the number one place to look right now?

Well, what the market is telling us in all market. So i'm going to talk to about the S M, P, the us. All the various numbers following, Russell, is that you can have the collective go up, and you don't seem to need to have, for example, in video.

Go up in video is down seven percent from its high in video, the most important stock in the market, the number one market cap name with the whisper number wasn't achieved. Even the top estimate for the quarter wasn't achieve whisper on the guidance. The market has continued to go up because the rest of the market around IT, the four hundred and ninety three other names in the S N P and the small cap and the midcap have been able to perform.

And if that's possible with a miss to some extent on NVIDIA, it's possible for the rest of the market broadly to to continue to improve. I find this the most interesting aspect to whats going on today that we've had some quasi disappointments. Target number was disappointing. Walmart was good, but the market has looked through that and said the environment is positive and friendly toward business and tax rate. You're going to be down.

You trying to see the force through the trees, right? There are going to be some trees that look like they're webby. Maybe they want to tip over.

But if you look through, you see what lies ahead. I bring that up because josh severed a super media today at bank of amErica is talking about a sync ical inferno. The words that SHE is used today.

In her note, SHE sets eight, twenty twenty five s and peace target of sixty six. Sixty six actually added the extra six by stocks, not the index, overweight financial discretionary materials, real estate and utilities. But the broader point here of a cyclical inferno points to a dramatic roading out or continued. So of this market, what do you think.

I think it's ready underway. Seva is among my favorites. I don't really allocate portfolios based on chief strategist notes in november, december for the year ahead.

Had you done that in december of last year, the average Price target among thirty of the top all street strategies for the sp was like forty eight hundred were in six thousand. Now they're all in sixty, five hundred, seven thousand. I don't know how that happens.

So I tend to focus more on what what the market itself is saying. And this is what's important to me right now if we're talking about broadening out and adding sick als and adding reilly state and all these things to um the problems of leadership. Eighty two percent of the S M P.

Five hundred names are above there. Two hundred day moving average that says good as IT gets, that says healthy as a bull market could possibly be sixty nine percent above their fifty days. And when you think about um where somebody sectors, so just think about financials.

Financials have the best brand. They're all up ninety five percent above the twenty day every financial stop you can think of this is in its own individual ball market and not even bought the the media. S N P, R I is seventy two. So when I think about sectors and bread and participation, I want to look at the data and not the predictions. And the day that tells me were in a really healthy trend.

I mean, stuff financials of the top performer since election record high. We've set IT five thousand times that feels like since election. But IT just remains the sector that, that leads up nine percent since the election.

Wells new record high today. Goldman, new record high on monday. Bank america, fifty two week on monday.

J, P, M, and Morgan, standing record highs on monday of this week. And city, a new fifty two week on monday. Yeah, so we talk about the S.

M, P, five hundred being at twenty two times forward estimates and its expensive. While the financials are not expensive, they're IT about thirteen to fourteen times a little bit under one point four times spoke value as a whole as a group.

What's like historical reasonable though if they are undervalued at thirteen to fourteen times what they.

I think Normal still a discount to the S M P, like sixteen, fifteen, sixteen times. And one in a hf plus book, you can get to two times book. We know J P.

Morgan been there many times, but I think you can get some of these others also up to up to one seven. One eight is kind of what i'm thinking, especially given what we know in terms of the fee incomes that have been just great. I mean, these stocks really started to take off after they reported earnings, right?

When jack Morgan reported their investment banking fees were supposed to be up fifteen percent in the quarter, IT came in a up thirty percent. And that was the theme across many of the big banks. IT was investment banking fees with wealth management fees.

IT was credit cards. And then if you add something like to wealth, fargo kind of have a self help tourist, a self help story where they're cutting costs and try to grow market chair. And then you have deregulation next year and you have all, by the way, N I I. And interest income recovered next year. Those two things I think are worth at least a multiple or two, Scott.

So IT doesn't matter that the stocks are are up a lots since the election, like wells is up twenty one percent because it's the cracks of what hsbc is talking about today. In their note, goldman and Morgan Stanley ve got downgraded. Why they've rally substantially and in their view today, no longer offer attractive risk reward profile and now has to be taken in to consideration at some point .

doesn't IT IT will eventually, but ma pipelines are fall. They I mean listen to golden sex CEO David salmon talk on his conference call about ma pipelines being at record levels. And so now that we have kind of the knows out there in terms of election and fed and and chinese stimulus and all of that, you're going to see business is start to spend. You're going to start to see that ema pipeline start to unwind in a positive way.

So you're Morgan Stanley, so you don't like to call .

I don't like the call at all. I mean, I think that the stock is trading eighteen times. It's a little on the rich side, but IT has lagged golbin sax year to date fifteen percent.

And I think you are about to see huge ema unwind. And you're also going to see for them the wealth management, peace and more synergies. Remember that they made lots of acclimation under James in in wealth management.

So they're not just a kind of a one stop shop like golden sex by. They are more diversified. And I think that deserves .

a higher multiple. So biller wuk has made some trades in this space. Let's bring him in because he has bought more of one of the stocks on that downed de, listen, I had golden sex.

So you bought more goldmine stocks, up thirteen and a hf percent since the election alone. Stuff just laid out the bull case for a most, if not all, of these stocks. Why do you buy more a bit now?

Now this was a new ad at the end of october before the election. And the idea was, you know, if IT comes down a little bit and the four fifth year, so we want to be buying more of IT, we did to get that opportunity. I think we ve got some confirmation that this was really continuing to break out.

We wanted to increase exposure. We like the trading activity, capital Marks activity as staff mention imma over the next year should really, really be a good tail when for me like this. So I think that keeps on going.

You bought more interconnected exchange to the ice. Tell me why?

Because exchange is a bit hot. Yeah, that is a new position is actually in ultimately you this is a very diversified business within financials. The services you look at real state market activity is twenty percent Morgan technologies, twenty two percent of the revenue. So I think that could be a really good tail when capital markets, you know, they owned the york aca change where the show is, we continue you to think that you pick up the commodity and trading and hedging services, especially in energy and the environment that we're about. The sea going forward, I think, is going to continue to be a telling to the revenge.

Why do you self sub the insure?

This is was a little rotation within the financial space. We kind of feel that I could be a capital apartment at the moment. We're not too excited about the insurance space in general over the next couple of quarters. We really like this company alive, and we see that getting back getting back into IT.

maybe sometime next year. Enough for burger, not good enough for brook. Yes, you do your thing.

That's okay. So all good. It's good to see you. Thanks for documenting these straight for us. Bill brook, i'd like to get take from from josh on the ice spy because I you own some exchanges, don't you? At least one I thought that, is that right?

Yeah, yeah. Look, this is one of the best businesses on earth if you are among the larger exchanges. And all of the publicly exchanged companies own many exchanges.

So the one i'm personally investment is nazi nda q their own exchanges all over the world. I also like the players in chicago that focus more on futures and options. And just generally speaking, I think the exchange business over the next year has a lot of the stars a line.

Number one, when you read stats like you started the show off with the amount of people buying, the amount of people worrying money into markets, once again, super positive. Look at the share Prices of coin base of Robin hood, all the broker players in every asset class. All of that feeds directly into the success of the exchange businesses.

Top that off with a return to capital markets business and IPO cycle at sea. These companies are set up to make enormous amounts of money on both volumes and listings. Those are the two main businesses of these companies, and I think all of them are gonna. Enter IT in twenty five .

you mention you know, coin base. And when Robin heard IT IT leads us, I guess all roads seem to lead to a bit coin these days, just given how well it's done. You take a look here. Bitcoin is falling back, of course, was on the was on the doorstep of one hundred k but you see it's at ninety three and a half will call IT to third tani mako is here post nine about the winning streak I guess right that these etps were on that that looks like it's over um what do we make of of what's happening now as you watch the spaces, you know IT Better than most.

Yes, got. So you know, bit points. Certainly ly cutting earlier losses that did fall under ninety two thousand dollars earlier and that coincided with bitcoin ney yesterday sing net outflows following a five day positive streak.

And what's really interesting, bitcoin has been regularly hitting these new records throughout november. And in that time, long term holders in the spot market have actually been selling more and more. So about seven hundred twenty thousand bit twins in the last thirty days being sold.

And of course, the Price has grown almost forty percent in that time. And that sell pressure has so far been I was worked by strong inflows into ben etf by institutions and of course, big bitcoin buys by microstrip gy. So bitcoin loss is a little bit more miles today, but you versus the rest of the crop to market. But IT is the lagged since the election versus either, which you can see in ef, ef finally coming life after the july launch and then also in recent and coin base, which doesn't break out the revenge that IT gets from the action in east. But IT is, you know, a big play for point.

There's some suggestion that bitcoin, if IT takes a breather, it's going to a benefit either some of the other crypto s that haven't seen as much of a know a big bump since the election. How much you following that a lot?

I think I really think that either has a lot of room to run. Investors had kind of abandoned IT all years, got for so many different reasons. On the institutional side, the use case was little difficult for them to run their heads around where is bitcoin very straight forward.

It's a store of value and they know exactly what to do with IT, how IT trades. But eat, there are I think, like I said, you're seeing the etps come to life. There's a lot of room to run here, and there is a lot of curiosity about IT by institutions.

Watch IT. I'm sorry me, you know there. Thank you. Thank you. It's something to give a brought interest that will continue to follow that story that gets see if IT gets back. Write up against that door step of one hundred K I D.

Got a thinking, Jimmy, which of the so called speculative trades, if you want to now put that this this is spent in that category, maybe there's more of a fundamental belief in IT these days because of the winds in the way they're blowing in washington. You can decide that. But which of those trades could have the most risk of a reversal? Or uc. Arc asks some twenty three and a half percent months to date, obviously mentioned the bittorrent players coin base microstrip gy at set. You watch this.

I am a speculation is a way to make money. I don't think it's a bad word at all, but let's define what IT is. It's an investment that is hard to put a fundamental valuation on.

I have a problem with that with crypto currency. That doesn't mean that it's a bad investment. That just means it's very hard for me to identify cash lows, earnings growth rates of the same with which to predict what a should be that different than stocks. However, scope, i've love the question and I want to date with you on this.

I will tell you an area of the stock market mentioned IT earlier that is A A bit more speculative, but which there are some fundamentals to think you teeth in to you and that small caps, okay, there's a lot that we can say a speculative about small caps. We can start with the fact that most small cap companies stay private if they're any good, and go public at a large mul exhibit at a larger market cap as opposed to the public. Small caps tend to not be the best companies.

All that said, with what we're seeing in the economic things that you were talking about earlier steffani, we should see top line growth in the small cap world combined with lower interest expenses, which gives me enough of a fundamental basis upon which to say that, that otherwise speculative area of the market, small gaps is a place to be o unfortunately just can't I can't do IT with cyp du. I'm happy when people make money in IT. It's just not something I can value, right?

Let's round up this block in which we've covered an awful lot of what's taking place in the markets to set the table for all of you with a move from stepping any links. Ts buying accenture a newby.

Yes, newby, it's only up three percent year days. So it's been A G IT does have exposure to the text spending in A I and in cybersecurity to areas where were all very foolish on this comedy. The third quarter had the highest book to bill in twenty years, one point two three.

And they actually have twenty billion dollars in new bookings. They also have done forty six deals, M A deals this year. They've spent almost seven billion dollars.

And I think you to see energy in twenty twenty five as a result. So I think this sets up well after being a lagged in twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five. And the stock is trading at a three multiple point discount to its historical average, right?

We are going to take that break. And when we come back, we will do our chart of the day, a stock that is now on pace for its worst day in twenty four years. Kerry says, if you owe IT, you should add to IT too. Day will tell you what IT is. We'll tell you why he says IT next.

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Take a look at our chart of the day as we did that go into break. IT is amgen's ne. IT is on pace for its worst day since october of two thousand as results of its obesity drug coming in with the lower end of wall street expectations, stocks down almost nine percent. Carry you don't own IT, but you have a lot of thoughts on IT been looking at IT.

right? definitely. So here's what happened. They reported faced results for maritim. That's a clip one give drug, which is a new compound or combinations.

And IT reported a twenty percent reduction and weight over a year. That was the average over a year. If you look to add gov. E, which is snow or on the state, that was a seventeen percent reduction and twenty one percent for a zp bound, which was lillies newest phase through that they did. So IT was right in the range.

The reason that the stock is done so much is, I believe, because of side effects, the side effect profile of the drug was a little worse than for the others. This is once a month that could possibly do IT once every two months rather than once a week. They have not yet perfected the titrated, meaning how you raise the dose to get to where you would be for every patient. And I think that's where they have to focus on over the next.

So you used to you know because you know the space so well, you been through a lot of these radios, right? When you used to manage the funds in health care and and biotech, when a stock has this sort of reaction in a space that can be as volunteer as this with drug development, what is the best reaction to sit back and wait a little bit, or to take advantage of a worst day in some twenty four years and buy a stock you've had your eye on? anyway?

I think that this is an opportunity for people who have, I would say, the patients s to wait because it's not going to be a quick fix to say we've really gotten this at a bargain Price. This is the next closest to market of any of the drugs they're in the space right now. They have an oral also that they're developing. And I think that makes sense to add some if you already have a position average down .

on IT stuff you own lilly, um which was up the last I saw probably in reaction to this news. It's up Better than five percent. What do added lily on a result like this? What you do hundred .

percent add to lilly, and I will, when I can, i'm restricted. It's still down sixteen percent from its high, Scott. This company grew total revenues forty two percent. If you exclude diabetes and weight loss, their total revenues grew seventeen percent because they have oncology and logy monolog drugs. Great pipeline.

One of the best the only problem with the stock is, is expensive, but why not on the very best in the business in terms of weight loss and diabetes on sale? And now you have a competitor that's a little bit weakened. And I agree with you, IT probably is a buy in terms of engine for the long term, but why not own the best in breed that's already down and the expectations are a lot .

lower up with Carrying stuff on this. First of farmer biotech is a hard business. okay? Things go wrong sometimes.

We saw two weeks go with the envy. They missed on the skids of fly, a drug that didn't past trials went down. It's now coming back. Amgen has had a bit of a schizophrenic ic last few months because they got locked in a patent battle with general on iea. I was proposed to take them up, and now they get knocked back on this.

What you do with all of this is if you have a high quality franchise and you feel like you know what the drugs are that are winners that you stick with IT through thick, thin, particularly with evaluation like this did on abv. And Frankly, it's something this is going to make you pause for a second, definitely something. I think we're supposed to start looking at personal mires again, I know sorry, you think that I think if you took a fresh look at IT again, without the experiences that you and I ve both had on IT, we both might change our minds.

Why do you say no?

Because IT was a horrible experience.

That was a horrible experience. And because a lot .

of their das performance is no indication of you say that .

a lot of their drugs, most person of pipeline actually is going to eric. So I do lot of and that takes a long time. It's one of the reasons why I like this because I thought they can do M A.

We time and the valuation is really depressed. They consistently could not execute. Maybe they can do a Better job going forward, but I do not have a good experience.

much rather on lilly. I mean, just you've learned this too in in this space. What's hot today is not necessarily hot tomorrow like fighter. What you cut I think in half within the last start, don't know.

couple weeks yeah but i'm .

stubborn and i'm not i'm not selling all of IT and I would love for staff or gym or Carried away in on this. Two years ago, eli really looked like IT shouldn't even be a public company anymore. People were talking about this name like IT should just be acquired by a european or scrap for parts.

And then IT became the most valuable health care stock in the world, literally. And IT didn't take that long. They had early research in a new category of drugs.

They hit IT. They executed, they market IT and IT worked. And i'm not suggesting that that's definitely going to happen just because a farmers stock like an m jan.

Or adviser, sit out the party for a couple of years that like from a contrary and perspective, it's automatically, hey, this is how IT works. I just would reintroduce the idea that that sort of thing is possible. I don't know, guys, any thoughts.

You so charge high and I think that your correct, I mean, exactly about lily lilly in the years that I covered, IT was the company that was in the diabetic's business and they kept trying to come up with an alzheimer strike and couldn't. So things have really changed, right? And things can change quickly with men, with bystanders, even with fir.

So I think that you can keep your eyes open. And I know that the crustal pipeline has a lot in IT. You might not have faith in IT, but I think immo, logy and oncology are very strong possibilities for them.

The next.

and I get I know.

but is which I can, which I grow four times. What first of mars is growing up just to button all this up before we move.

IT is the worst performing sector over the last month. Is health care that most things are up as probably can gather this this stock, the sectors down more than two percent. You a lot of election related uncertainty as a related to that, but we will move to pepper Stevens the headlines. Forest haya.

Hey, guy. Drones have been spotted over three british air bases used by the U. S. Air force, the air force said.

A number of the identified drones responded over the installations during the past of six days, including an airbase that is the largest air force Operated base in england. And how is joint direct attack munitions used by fighter jets? U.

S. Officials say it's too soon to tell who is behind to the incident just after a present elected trump said late monday that he would impose a twenty five percent tariff on goods entering the us. From mexico if the country did not stop the flow of drugs and migrants across the border, mexico s.

President cloudy, a shine bombs, suggested that the country would impose its own terrace in retaliation. China bombs, said he was willing to talk about the issues, but said the drugs were a us. problem.

And in japan, the engine of the country's new flagship rocket exploded during a combust in test. Officials said the explosion didn't cause any injuries, but that is severely damaged. The test facility is the second failure for the absence on s rocket, which is expected to make IT made in flight in march.

Git for thank you. Bit Stevens up. Next, we're going to do our calls of the day and Kevin simpson is to and Kevin simpson is going to join us as well.

Texas specific land added to the S N P. ewes. That stock will give you his take on IT. Maybe you should add IT to your own portfolio. I'll talk about IT next.

Enjoy the power of C N B C rose best deal of the year. Track your portfolio from every angle on one optimize platform.

Walk about the stock tp l text as specific land in the S, M P A day is down little more than four percent. Kevin simpson joins us Normally, this is good news. What's happening here?

I think IT is great news. Scot, know it's the gift that keeps on giving. Tp l, we talked about IT less than two months ago, made our first investment in IT last week.

We actually trim some of IT. But what I think is worth noting today is exactly your point. This gets added to the S P. Five hundred today, a couple trading sessions ago, I picked up at seventy one hundred.

Why isn't IT up? The reason IT isn't is that most index providers will layer into this position in advance of that becoming part of the index today. And that's why we sold this move, if you remember last week, we sold some at thirteen and fifty.

It's two hundred points higher than that. What the trade is the the the arbitrage res know that the index has to buy IT so they can get into IT. It's very common for a new index um inclusion to trade down on the day that is included, which is kind of need to to learn about IT.

But there's an opportunity to be here. There's definite going to be passive money coming into IT for years to come. And we can talk more about this as as we take IT from a trade into an investment.

So maybe some anticipation already in the Price. What else is looking interesting to you before I let you run and i'm going to let you run in the second put what else is on your mind as you look to these markets here?

I really like the conversation you had about engine. I tend to think that you can lean into that if you don't owe IT. We've been in, in engine for several years.

I know it's disappointing anytime you get a little bit of a hick up or a speed bump, but I agree with Carry that. There's opportunity here. We really don't have a position that we can add to because we're so heavily waited into IT. But if we see this pull down any further, I think we're going to have to add regardless because longer turn from an investment, this is this is the company that we want to own for the long term, and you take advantage of pulling backs for sure.

Yeah, worst to twenty four years. As we said, good stuff. Good thanksgiving to you and your family.

We will see you soon. Cap, thanks. Thank you. Let's get to our calls of the day.

Want to talk about zoom because I got up grated today and ever call I S I. time. Time is now to buy.

They call the reinvention. Josh, you've had your eye on this. You said that was added your .

best stocks in the yeah listen, the strategy of hanging around the goal is, I think, the one of the best strategies of this year, which is one of the reasons why we keep our our list. Zoom has been pushing fifty two weeks all year and now of a sudden people of learning what the story is.

The story here is that they are becoming a business communication software provider and they're utilizing the popularity of the video streaming service as kind of the way to get people into the fund. We we pay zoom a lot of money. We're a customer.

Um we need to, for compliance reasons, be able to ask of the discussions and be able to have an organized way to set up meetings with clients. And zoom just has the the most all encompassing technology understand something. There were huge fines being paid on wall street all last year.

The biggest firms, Morgan, standing down to smaller rias. They're paying these finds because they have employees who are using regular ms text messaging to talk to clients. And you can do that, not archive.

Zoom has a product that allows all of my employees to have their own dedicated text messaging system so that we can archive those communications. That's just one of many things that they built. And I think wall street is now waking up to this company looking more like a salesforce or a slack and less like a competitive to google meat.

Jimmy, delta airlines, let's finish a couple of calls here. You got two of them today. Ubs resumes its coverage, they say, by IT eight eight box Price target.

That's a nice subside from here. City not quite as bullish. They go seventy six as they maintain their own buy. What do you think about those calls?

I like the calls, but let let's be honest about this. This is no longer the cheap stock that IT was. IT had a heck of a year, up eighty two percent over the last twelve months and is now trading at almost nine times earnings in the middle or towards the end of an economic cycle that can trade ten, eleven, twelve times.

I don't think we're done with the economic cycle, not by a long shot. So I am going to hang on to this and expect that we get to at least ten, maybe eleven times our own executives are starting to pick up a little bit. So if you get seven and a half dollars per share and earnings next year, but at ten times, seven times multiple, you get to those Price targets and hang in there. But it's .

not cheap. He's going to join us next with his midday word right after this quick break.

Like Sandy are singing Marks commentators here with this midday where you guys so down and we have santos at the table now, right? So we're assessing, you know, the terrible talk to that's really all IT is at this point, although jims not wait around you.

he saw general mode. I saw that what you think had a bit of a run. So it's not as if here you know so in a too deep in the whole or anything like that, I fighting interesting.

The market is very much localizing the perceived effects. It's not going to jump to any grand conclusions. I think we've kind of know this this drill.

You don't want to get necessarily kind of web sod by over pursuing one potential outcome. Another bigger picture market just keeps kind of coLoring inside the lines. You know IT is rotating around semis, look kind of heavy again today.

The rest of the markets angang and in there just shows you that a few of the growth stocks can be a buffer, you know, banks arresting today. So it's fine as IT stands right now. I do think you have to be aware the economic surprise index curled over pretty notably at this point.

All the numbers today were below consensus. I don't think that means weakness. I think it's everything in an acceptable range. But IT sort of shows you were out of this phase where IT was the economy might be accelerating beyond expectations and yields are kind of hang in, in their OK, but not really causing much of a concern. And then i'm just watching for the build up of optimism toward twenty twenty five and whether that gets a little bit of an overshoot in, in the short term. The fix is under fourteen, of course, because the markets going to be closed for a bit.

See another big number PC in the morning. I'll see you in a couple hours on closing baLance, make and toy come up. We will discuss the committee's top winner losers for the month of november when we come back.

Now I get close to the end of the months. So we thought of be wise to look back and see which stocks to work the best in the worst up here in this month. Josh toast up forty six percent in november, a new fifty two week today that is the best one that you've had.

Block is new. It's up twenty five percent. But give me up on toast which is that a new fifty two week to day? Ah I I didn't .

get any this rally in block. I'm late. I'm minute at like ninety one and ninety two but on toast you have to respect my ganger.

This was one of those situations where um people thought that they would negotiate profitability or the spaces too crowded, too many competitors. A lot of these digital markets judge turn into winner take all, and they now have the most market chair. So if you have to bet on somebody, I think it's toast.

And wall street was kind of like figuring in out. So I got this one right. So far.

alphabet was down one to a hundred percent. We are documented visors been down as well. Carry e pam systems your best you ve been adding to IT to its up thirty percent this month.

exactly. This is one of companies, a software provider that got hit hard when everything was about A I. So it's the Browning of the market and a return to software.

bozo. And down 2 percent you've been .

we have been dreaming at and and we did that near the top because these stocks were just inflated because everyone loved the idea of defense。 yeah.

G T. Healthcare staff, down five percent a snowflakes are your best. We talked about that the other day, obviously on the back of the earnings. But what about g health care?

And then I think it's down because of china, to be honest, have a lot of exposure overseas. And so the chinese market obviously has been a very big struggle for all of mettez. So of my winners, I actually would be buying gap.

okay, up seventeen percent and eaten is another big winner, new record high to day up for teen percent. Jimmy, just give me really quick on holding twenty two percent up. New record high yesterday .

is just a fabulous company putting out fabulous products, good momentum in the stock. But fundamentally, there's a lot of demand for their products.

You talk about a vae down thirteen this much, luckily down four and a half finals and next. I'll see on closing, bell will have an interesting last hour liz Young, Thomas on crowd elen sentner rich severstal Chris hides, you've got a great line up, and I hope you'll join me. Josh Brown, your final trade .

is what amazon looks .

good today. Okay, thank you, kerry. Its .

charter communications ctr, three good things happening, increasing subs, lower cap backs and buying stock back. And IT just gone from liberty.

Okay, thank you very much.

Farmer jim, lucky Martin, I know I threw in the tele on gm, and some may say, why not lucky ed marton after the elon musk tweet, but I don't think that tweet has any teeth.

Okay, thank you very much. Stephany link rockwell .

automation reassuring is a ten trillion dollar total addressable market, new forest on margins.

Thank you. Everybody will see on the closing down, the exchange begins right now you've been listening to see nbc halftime report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at twelve turn only on cnbc.

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