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cover of episode Could you be hit by a falling satellite?

Could you be hit by a falling satellite?

2025/6/14
logo of podcast More or Less: Behind the Stats

More or Less: Behind the Stats
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
F
Fiona Thompson
J
Jonathan McDowell
T
Tim Harford
Topics
Tim Harford: 听众对目前卫星发射速度提出质疑，认为到2030年将有10万颗卫星在轨运行，并以每小时一颗的速度坠落。我想知道这个数字是否真实，目前有多少卫星在轨，有多少正在重返大气层，以及它们是否会发生碰撞。我希望通过采访专家来解答这些问题。 Jonathan McDowell: 我认为目前卫星数量增长迅速，主要原因是商业公司的参与。现在有超过11,000颗卫星在轨运行，其中一半以上由SpaceX运营。随着卫星数量的增加，太空碰撞的风险也在增加。卫星需要进行避碰操作以避免碰撞。报废卫星会因大气阻力逐渐降低轨道，最终在大气层中燃烧殆尽，但较大的碎片可能落到地面。虽然目前还没有人员伤亡记录，但随着卫星数量的增加，风险也在增加。我估计，如果卫星数量达到10万颗，重返大气层的速率可能达到每小时一颗。 Fiona Thompson: 我主要负责研究卫星在大气层中燃烧的情况。我们对卫星燃烧过程的了解还不够深入，缺乏卫星重返大气层的观测数据，相关知识的积累需要时间。目前，公司需要证明其卫星造成人员伤亡的风险较低。我们发现一些复合材料比预期的更能承受重返大气层的过程，因此我认为需要加强监管。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the European Space Agency's prediction of 100,000 satellites in orbit by 2030. It examines the current number of satellites, the rate of increase, and the factors influencing this growth, including commercial involvement and licensing.
  • ESA predicts 100,000 satellites by 2030
  • Currently over 11,000 satellites in orbit
  • Rapid growth due to commercial companies, especially SpaceX
  • Around 80,000 satellites on the drawing board

Shownotes Transcript

The number of satellites orbiting our planet has been rapidly increasing in recent years. But what are the risks when they start falling back down to earth?

The European Space agency estimate that by 2030 there will be 100,000 satellites in orbit. We look at whether that estimate is realistic and what it means for those of us living on the ground below, with the help of Jonathan McDowell and Fionagh Thomson.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard