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cover of episode Has Russia suffered a million casualties in the Ukraine war?

Has Russia suffered a million casualties in the Ukraine war?

2025/6/28
logo of podcast More or Less: Behind the Stats

More or Less: Behind the Stats
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D
David Lammy
O
Olga Ivshina
S
Seth Jones
T
Tim Harford
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Tim Harford: 我认为乌克兰战争给双方都带来了巨大的人员伤亡。我们需要关注新闻中的数字，并进行更深入的分析。 David Lammy: 我认为普京的野心不仅给乌克兰人民带来了伤害，也在窃取俄罗斯的未来。现在俄罗斯的伤亡人数已经达到了惊人的一百万。 Seth Jones: 作为一名军事分析员，我认为要精确地统计前线伤亡人数非常困难，但我估计俄罗斯的伤亡人数接近一百万。这个数字包括死亡和受伤，我对这个估计有中等程度的信心。俄罗斯的战术，如人浪攻击，以及乌克兰的防御，都导致了俄罗斯伤亡惨重。乌克兰也遭受了重大伤亡，估计有40万人伤亡，其中6万到10万人死亡。俄罗斯在乌克兰的推进速度非常缓慢，这场战争的死亡人数是该国自二战以来从未见过的。 Olga Ivshina: 我是一名BBC记者，我认为对伤亡数字的定义可能存在问题，尤其是乌克兰政府的统计方式。西方传统军事分析对伤亡的定义包括死亡、失踪和重伤，但俄罗斯的统计方式可能导致重复计算。如果按照传统估计，伤亡人数可能在80万到90万之间。我们通过开放来源逐一建立在乌克兰阵亡的俄罗斯士兵名单，目前有113,000个名字，但肯定遗漏了一些。估计在乌克兰阵亡的俄罗斯士兵人数可能接近25万。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast investigates claims of one million Russian casualties in the Ukraine war. Experts discuss the challenges in verifying this figure, including differing definitions of 'casualty' and the difficulties of gathering accurate data from a conflict zone. The discussion also highlights the complexities of estimating casualties, especially regarding wounded soldiers.
  • Claims of one million Russian casualties are circulating among politicians and journalists.
  • Defining 'casualty' (killed vs. wounded) significantly impacts the numbers.
  • The Russian military's operational methods may lead to double or triple counting of casualties.
  • Estimates vary, with some suggesting between 800,000 and 900,000 casualties based on traditional definitions.

Shownotes Transcript

It’s been over three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the human toll is growing on both sides.

Recently, politicians and journalists have declared a grim milestone, one million Russian casualties.

But is this number accurate?

Tim talks to Seth Jones, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Olga Ivshina, from the BBC Russian service, to investigate this statistic.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the More or Less team: [email protected]

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon