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cover of episode Is the UN underestimating the global fall in fertility?

Is the UN underestimating the global fall in fertility?

2025/5/24
logo of podcast More or Less: Behind the Stats

More or Less: Behind the Stats
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Patrick Gerland
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Tom Coles
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Tom Coles: 我认为图表在新闻工作中至关重要，但联合国关于阿根廷生育率的图表显示出一种奇怪的现象：生育率急剧下降后突然趋于平缓。这引发了人们对联合国是否低估了全球生育危机的担忧。我希望通过分析这个图表，探讨联合国预测生育率的方法以及可能存在的问题。 Patrick Gerland: 我在联合国人口司工作。自联合国成立以来，全球生育率持续下降。我们的预测基于历史趋势，而非复杂的经济或社会模型。对于生育率已低于更替水平的国家，我们参考其他国家的经验。虽然我们承认我们的方法可能过于保守，尤其是在超低生育率的情况下，但我们试图保持中立，避免过度预测。我认为，虽然生育率下降是全球趋势，但预测未来走向仍然充满挑战。

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This episode discusses the UN's fertility rate predictions, focusing on Argentina's unusual graph showing a sharp decline followed by a sudden leveling off. This leads to questions about whether the UN is underestimating the global fall in fertility.
  • UN predicts global population to peak around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s
  • Argentina's fertility rate graph shows a sharp decline followed by a sudden leveling off
  • The UN's fertility projections may be underestimating the global fall in fertility

Shownotes Transcript

Every two years, the UN release their predictions for the future population of humanity – currently expected to peak in the 2080s at around 10.3 billion people.

One of the things they use to work this out is the fertility rate, the number of children the average woman is expected to have in her lifetime. When this number falls below 2, the overall population eventually falls.

In this episode of More or Less, we look at the fertility estimates for one country – Argentina. The graph of the real and predicted fertility rate for that country looks quite strange.

The collected data – that covers up to the present day – shows a fertility rate that’s falling fast. But the predicted rate for the future immediately levels out. The strangeness has led some people to think that the UN might be underestimating the current fall in global fertility.

To explain what’s going on we speak to Patrick Gerland, who runs the population estimates team in the United Nations Population Division.

Presenter / producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon