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cover of episode Is the world’s population being miscounted?

Is the world’s population being miscounted?

2025/6/7
logo of podcast More or Less: Behind the Stats

More or Less: Behind the Stats
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Josias Langrutter
T
Tim Harford
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Tim Harford: 我指出联合国的人口估计依赖于可能不准确的人口普查数据，并强调一项研究表明农村人口可能被严重低估。我强调媒体对这一发现的夸大解读，并质疑实际情况是否如此。我总结说，研究表明，全球人口地图可能低估了农村人口，导致资源分配不均。 Josias Langrutter: 我解释说，我们的研究主要关注人口分布的准确性，而不是全球人口总数的错误。我通过水坝项目研究发现，全球人口地图显著低估了农村地区的人口数量。我指出，人口普查在农村地区的局限性以及卫星观测的困难是造成这种差异的原因。我强调，尽管总人口数可能被低估，但主要问题在于农村人口的代表性不足，这可能导致资源分配不公。我承认新闻稿可能存在误导，并强调研究的重点是人口分布。最后，我强调了人口统计偏差对资源分配和社会公平的潜在影响。

Deep Dive

Chapters
A recent study suggests a significant underestimation of rural populations globally, leading to headlines claiming billions more people exist than previously thought. This episode investigates whether this claim accurately reflects the study's findings.
  • UN estimates world population at 8.2 billion based on census data.
  • A Finnish study found rural populations underestimated by 50-80%.
  • El Mundo newspaper extrapolated this to a potential 2 billion global undercount.

Shownotes Transcript

Exactly how many people live on our planet is one of those difficult-to-answer questions. The UN estimates is 8.2 billion, but that’s largely based on census data, which is certainly not a perfect measure.

So when a recent study from Finland found that rural populations around the world had been underestimated by 50 to over 80%, the media got quite excited. This would be a big error - a 50% underestimate would mean the actual number of people in an area is double the number they thought there were.

One newspaper in Spain - El Mundo - did its own sums and said this meant there were potentially 2 billion more people in the world than we currently think there are.

But is it what the researchers in Finland actually meant?

“Absolutely not,” says Josias Lang-Ritter, a researcher from University in Finland and a co-author of the study.

Tim Harford speaks to Josias to figure out the right way of understanding the study.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Caroline Bayley Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon