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cover of episode Is there really $500bn of Rare Earths in Ukraine?

Is there really $500bn of Rare Earths in Ukraine?

2025/3/8
logo of podcast More or Less: Behind the Stats

More or Less: Behind the Stats
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Eli Saklitvala
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Eli Saklitvala: 我认为关于乌克兰拥有价值5000亿美元稀土资源的说法并不准确。首先，稀土元素并非像字面意思那样稀有，在地壳中储量丰富。然而，开采、加工和将其整合到有意义的供应链中却极其困难。稀土矿物的成分复杂多变，常常伴生有放射性元素如铀和钍，这使得分离和提纯过程异常复杂，也增加了开采成本和难度。 此外，中国在稀土供应和消费方面占据主导地位，这使得中国对稀土价格拥有巨大的影响力。对于非中国地区的项目开发商而言，建立新的稀土项目需要投入超过10亿美元的资金，耗时可能超过十年，而且最终的销售价格也难以控制。这使得投资者望而却步，也阻碍了供应链的多元化发展。 关于乌克兰稀土资源的估值，现有的数据大多来自苏联时期的勘探结果，已经过时，无法反映当前的实际情况。我们需要最新的、符合现代标准的地质勘探数据来评估其价值。即使是基于过时数据的估算，5000亿美元的数字也过于夸张，远远超过了全球稀土市场的实际价值。全球稀土市场的年价值最高估计也只有124亿美元左右。 我认为，‘稀土’这个词在此处可能被泛化了，实际指的是乌克兰拥有的各种矿产资源，例如锂、钛、多种贱金属、石墨和锰等。这些矿产资源对传统工业和绿色能源转型都至关重要。乌克兰确实拥有巨大的矿产资源潜力，一些报告估计其矿产资源总价值高达15万亿美元。但是，将这些资源的潜在价值转化为实际的经济价值，还需要克服开采和加工的巨大挑战。因此，对地下资源进行估值非常困难，我们应该对这类数据持谨慎态度。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast explores the claim that Ukraine possesses $500 billion worth of rare earth minerals. It questions whether this figure is accurate, highlighting the complexities of rare earth extraction and the challenges in valuing these resources.
  • The US demanded access to what was reported as Ukraine's rare earths, rare metals, or rare minerals, totaling $500 billion.
  • Rare earths are a specific group of 17 elements, and are not actually rare.
  • Extracting and processing rare earths is incredibly difficult, leading to a high reliance on China for supply.

Shownotes Transcript

As part of the fast-moving argument over US military support to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine’s rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground?

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer and Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown