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cover of episode Numbers of the year 2024

Numbers of the year 2024

2024/12/28
logo of podcast More or Less: Behind the Stats

More or Less: Behind the Stats

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H
Hannah Ritchie
通过数据驱动的方法解决大规模环境问题和实现可持续性的数据科学家和研究员。
R
Rukmini S
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Rukmini S:印度的生育率已降至2,低于人口更替水平(2.1),这在印度引发了广泛的讨论和担忧。生育率的下降与经济发展、女性受教育程度提高和医疗保健改善有关。然而,这种下降也带来了新的挑战。由于生育率下降,印度未来劳动力人口的地区分布将发生变化,西部和南部等较富裕地区的老龄化问题将日益突出,而中部和东部等较贫困地区则将面临劳动力过剩的问题。这可能导致地区间发展差距进一步扩大,并引发内部迁移等社会问题。此外,生育率下降也引发了社会上对人口未来发展的担忧,一些人认为这是积极的,代表着女性受教育程度的提高和儿童死亡率的下降,而另一些人则担心人口减少会对经济发展和社会稳定造成负面影响。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is India's total fertility rate in 2024 and why is it significant?

India's total fertility rate in 2024 is 2, meaning the average woman is expected to have 2 children in her lifetime. This is significant because a fertility rate below 2.1 leads to a declining population. India, traditionally a major driver of global population growth, has seen a dramatic decline from over 5 children per woman in the 1950s. This shift reflects improved access to health and education, but also raises concerns about future workforce distribution and aging populations.

How many countries held presidential or general elections in 2024?

In 2024, 66 countries held presidential or general elections, with additional elections for the EU Parliament. This represents an electorate of about half the world's population, ranging from 9,700 voters in Palau to 642 million in India. Some elections faced challenges like fraud accusations or delays due to unrest, and results varied widely, from Vladimir Putin's 87% in Russia to Paul Kagame's 99.1% in Rwanda.

How many children have been saved by vaccines in the last 50 years?

Approximately 150 million children have been saved by vaccines in the last 50 years, equating to one child every 10 seconds. This estimate comes from a Lancet study modeling a world without vaccine programs, focusing on 14 serious pathogens. Vaccines have contributed to around 40% of the decline in infant mortality, with the measles vaccine alone preventing an estimated 94 million deaths.

What are the regional disparities in India's fertility rates?

India's fertility rates vary significantly by region. Bihar has a fertility rate of 3, while urban parts of West Bengal have a rate of 1.39, comparable to Japan. These disparities highlight the uneven demographic transition across the country, with poorer regions like Bihar still experiencing higher fertility rates, while wealthier areas in the South and West face aging populations and workforce challenges.

Shownotes Transcript

It’s that time of year again, the time when we ask some of our favourite statistically-inclined people for their numbers of the year. We present them to you - from falling birth rates in India to children saved by vaccines.

Contributors: RukminiS, Data for India Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University, Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data.

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Vicky Baker Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Donald McDonald and Rod Farquhar