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cover of episode The pioneers of proof

The pioneers of proof

2025/4/19
logo of podcast More or Less: Behind the Stats

More or Less: Behind the Stats
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Tim Harford
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Tim Harford: 我主持的More or Less节目致力于数据核实，但证明本身却是一个难以捉摸的概念。有时数据不足，有时像主观意见，有时需要实际检验。Adam Kucharski的新书《Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty》探讨了证明的先驱者们的故事，从二战期间盟军预测德军坦克数量到Janet Lane Claypon对乳腺癌风险因素的研究，都展现了统计方法在解决复杂问题中的强大力量。 我们每天都使用已知的证明工具来回答听众的问题，但这些工具是谁创造的？他们又是如何证明未知的呢？本书探讨了这些问题，并介绍了一些重要的证明先驱者。 Adam Kucharski: (虽然访谈中Adam Kucharski没有直接发言，但他的研究成果贯穿了整个节目) 我的研究表明，即使数据碎片化，运用合适的统计方法，也能得出可靠的结论。例如，在二战期间，盟军通过分析缴获的德军坦克零件上的序列号，成功预测了德军坦克的产量，这与我们现在在疫情期间利用有限数据估计感染人数的方法异曲同工。这种方法的关键在于理解数据背后的机制，并结合统计学原理进行推断。 Janet Lane Claypon: (虽然访谈中Janet Lane Claypon没有直接发言，但她的研究成果是节目的重点) 我对母乳喂养和牛奶喂养对婴儿健康的影响进行了研究，并率先使用了回顾性队列研究的方法。通过分析已有的数据，我比较了不同喂养方式对婴儿生长发育的影响，并考虑了家庭收入等混杂因素。此外，我还进行了乳腺癌风险因素的研究，并使用了病例对照研究的方法，发现了生育子女数量与乳腺癌风险之间的关联。我的研究方法至今仍被广泛应用于医学和流行病学研究。

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This chapter discusses how statisticians used a small sample of captured German tanks and their serial numbers to estimate the total number of tanks produced, which was significantly lower than initial intelligence estimates. This method proved surprisingly accurate compared to the actual number of tanks.
  • Allied statisticians used serial numbers on tank components to estimate production.
  • The estimate of 270 tanks per month was remarkably close to the actual figure of 276.
  • This method highlighted the value of even limited data in making accurate estimations.

Shownotes Transcript

Here are More or Less we’ll all about the facts. Every day we use a toolkit of known proofs to try and answer our listeners’ questions. But who do we have to thank for this toolkit and how did they set about proving the unknown?

Luckily for us mathematician Adam Kucharski has just written a book about this very topic called ‘Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty’.

Join us to hear more about some of the proof pioneers included in his book, from estimating the number of German tanks during WW2 to an unsung heroine of statistics.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner