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cover of episode What are the chances of an asteroid hitting earth in 2032?

What are the chances of an asteroid hitting earth in 2032?

2025/3/22
logo of podcast More or Less: Behind the Stats

More or Less: Behind the Stats
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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D
Davide Farnocchia
T
Tim Harford
Topics
Tim Harford: 2024年12月，天文学家发现了一颗名为2024 YR4的小行星，其轨道可能对地球构成威胁。最初的撞击概率估计为1%，随后上升到3%，引发了公众的广泛关注和恐慌。最终，随着更多观测数据的收集和分析，撞击概率下降到几乎为零。这起事件突显了对潜在威胁天体的持续监测和准确预测的重要性，以及公众对这类事件的认知和反应。 我作为一名记者，关注的是公众对这一事件的反应，以及信息传播过程中可能存在的误解和恐慌。最初的1%的概率，虽然很低，但考虑到潜在的灾难性后果，仍然足以引起人们的担忧。随后概率的上升和下降，则反映了科学预测的不确定性和随着更多数据获取而不断修正的过程。这起事件也提醒我们，科学预测并非一成不变，需要持续的观测和数据更新来提高准确性。 Davide Farnocchia: 我是NASA喷气推进实验室的导航工程师，负责追踪小行星和彗星。2024 YR4小行星的案例中，我们最初的观测数据有限，导致对撞击概率的估计存在较大的不确定性。随着更多观测数据的积累，我们能够更精确地确定小行星的轨道和速度，从而降低了撞击概率。 我的工作是利用全球天文学家收集的数据来追踪小行星，这些数据包括小行星的红外信号和反射光，通过测量小行星经过恒星的速度来计算其速度。我们每天都会发现许多新的天体，并对其进行轨道分析，以评估其未来可能对地球造成的威胁。虽然像2024 YR4这样能够造成重大破坏的小行星撞击地球的概率非常低，但我们仍然需要持续监测，以确保及时发现和应对任何潜在的威胁。我们利用各种技术手段，包括雷达观测和光学观测，来提高我们对小行星轨道的预测精度。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast discusses the discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 and the initial concerns about its potential impact on Earth. The likelihood of a collision was initially estimated at 1%, rising to 3% before dropping to virtually zero. The size and potential devastation of the asteroid are discussed.
  • Discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024
  • Initial 1% chance of impact, rising to 3%
  • Asteroid size estimated between 40 and 90 meters
  • Potential for city-wide destruction, not mass extinction

Shownotes Transcript

On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth.

Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.

The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero.

Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon