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cover of episode Navigating Post-Election Market Dynamics

Navigating Post-Election Market Dynamics

2024/11/8
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On Investing

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K
Kathy Jones
L
Liz Ann Sonders
作为查尔斯·施瓦布公司的首席投资策略师,Liz Ann Sonders 负责市场和经济分析、投资者教育和资产配置建议。
Topics
Liz Ann Sonders:股市上涨可能与降低公司税、放松监管和刺激政策预期有关,但也受到美元走强和通胀担忧的影响。市场波动性加大,需要密切关注全天交易情况。美联储即将召开的会议可能对利率决策产生影响。 此外,不要过度依赖选举后的市场叙事来指导投资决策。能源板块在2016年大选后的表现与预期相反,说明选举结果对市场的影响存在不确定性。建议关注高质量股票,并关注市场中的轮动现象。预计未来市场波动性将加大,建议采用基于因素的投资策略。 Kathy Jones:债券市场收益率上升,反映出对扩张性财政政策、经济增长和通货膨胀的预期。目前预测政策风险很大,因为政策细节和国会构成尚不明确。债券市场目前预期美联储将在会议上降息,但未来降息幅度可能小于预期。通胀预期上升,体现在美国国债的盈亏平衡利率上。未来一年经济前景存在很大的不确定性。美元升值、油价和农产品价格下跌对通胀构成抑制作用。政策实施存在不确定性。美联储可能在周四会议上降息25个基点,通货膨胀下降,为美联储放松货币政策提供了空间。美联储未来的前瞻指引可能会更加谨慎,在12月会议上可能暂停降息。对债券投资策略持谨慎态度,建议关注债券久期。美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将在2026年初结束,未来美联储的构成和沟通方式可能发生变化,增加了不确定性。建议谨慎投资,因为经济政策可能转向扩张性,而经济已经处于健康增长状态。美元升值可能对新兴市场国家造成压力,市场可能对政策变化的预期过于乐观。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Hosts Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones discuss initial market reactions to the election, focusing on stocks and bonds. They analyze the effect of potential fiscal policies, Federal Reserve decisions, and cautious investment approaches.
  • Massive positive reaction in the equity market, potentially due to expectations of lower corporate taxes and relaxed regulations.
  • Rise in bond yields due to expectations of expanded fiscal policy and increased inflation risk.
  • Uncertainty about the actual implemented policies necessitates cautious investment strategies.

Shownotes Transcript

In this week's episode, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist, and Kathy Jones, Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist, discuss the immediate market reactions following the recent election, focusing on the equity and bond markets. They explore the implications of potential fiscal policies, the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions, and the importance of cautious investment strategies in light of uncertainty. The discussion also highlights the significance of economic indicators and the potential for market volatility in the near future. 

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab). For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting).

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts).

 

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. 

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. 

All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. 

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

Currencies are speculative, very volatile and are not suitable for all investors.

Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.

Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.

The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.

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The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

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