An Israel-Iran Ceasefire & New Yorkers Head to the Polls 6/24/25
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Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. I'm not happy with Israel. I'm not happy with Iran either. The president's angry response as two countries claim violations to a ceasefire President Trump was touting just last night. I don't even know what the options are, if they've actually broken the ceasefire. I thought the retaliation yesterday was, like, profound.

We talked to a Republican lawmaker balancing support for the president's Mideast agenda with legislative priorities in that big, beautiful bill. Congressman Mike Lawler. I think all of us recognize that we do not want a regional conflict. We do not want this spilling out into other parts of the Middle East or beyond.

And the surprising but totally New York, New York mayoral primary election on one of the hottest days in years, the former governor and the socialist. Do you know how it would be run? Andrew, there'd be nothing on the shelves. Nothing. Kathy Wild of the business group Partnership for New York on what the Big Apple's corporate leaders think about the change coming to City Hall.

Honestly, New York is in much better shape than the political rhetoric would have you believe. We've got a trillion dollar economy. We've got more jobs than we've ever had. We are not falling apart. All that today and the rest of the news that got us squawking. It is Tuesday, June 24th. Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand back, you buy in three, two, one. Cue, please.

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We're live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Meantime, Israel accusing Iran of violating a ceasefire between the two countries. Israel saying it identified missiles launched from Iran. Now, Iran denying it broke that agreement. This comes hours after President Trump posted online that, quote, the ceasefire is now in effect.

Please do not violate it, he said, the president leaving Washington this morning for a NATO summit in the Netherlands. Megan Casella joins us now with the latest from Washington, D.C. Good morning.

Guys, good morning. So a lot of moving pieces this morning on this story. It was around 1 a.m. Eastern when the president posted that what he called a complete and total ceasefire was going to be in effect starting then. The president had previously said that would mark an official end to what he had begun calling the 12-day war. Then it was around 3.30 a.m. all these times Eastern that Israel's defense forces said that they identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel. This is something that

Iran denies. But just in the last few minutes, guys, the IDF is calling this a severe violation of the ceasefire and says that they will respond with force. Israel's defense minister also putting out a new statement saying they had, he had instructed the IDF in coordination with the prime minister to continue the intense

of attacking Tehran to thwart regime targets and terrorist infrastructures in the city. So guys, at this point, NBC News reporters on the ground have said that they have been unable to identify or to verify the situation there. So they can't say at this point for sure whether these were in fact Iranian missiles, but at

At this moment, it is not clear what happens to this ceasefire and whether the two sides are at this point agreeing to uphold it. President Trump does head to the Netherlands today, this hour, I should say, for the NATO summit, and we could hear from him just in the next few minutes as he's set to depart

the White House, so we could get more on this then. The administration has said that the president will hold a series of bilateral meetings while they are in the Netherlands that he'll also be working to secure a 5 percent defense spending pledge from NATO members this week. But, of course, you can expect news of the cease-fire arrangement and the path forward to dominate discussions as well. Guys? I don't even know what the options are at this point when you start to think about it. If they've actually broken the cease-fire,

it is he i i thought the the retaliation yesterday was just profound the way that is is

The ideal outcome. As accommodating as Iran seemed to be. We have to do something so that we can talk about what we did internally in the country. But warn Qatar and warn the United States. Almost went to lengths to make sure no Americans were killed. And launched the same number of ordnance that were in the U.S. strike. Almost...

Saying, OK, it almost was like saying, we'll see whether whether. And then there's other reports that Israel's ready to, you know, they've accomplished a lot of what they wanted, especially with what happened on Saturday night. Can we maybe it's like tariffs. Maybe we're at least decelerating.

in terms of the conflict. Maybe it's not over. Maybe there's always, it seems like whenever there's a ceasefire, there's always, you know, you hope that one side doesn't do so much that we're back full on to. Yeah, the Israeli defense minister is vowing to retaliate. But if that can be calmed down, if you can drop this and you can understand why President Trump would want this immediate ceasefire, feeling like this was absolute success.

the retaliation was something we can absolutely handle. And the journal goes there, not to that, but the journal goes to, he wants to appease the right-wing MAGA critics that it's not going to be boots on the ground. Right, but I imagine in the end, Israel is going to have, there will have to be some kind of special force targeted thing where they're going to have to go to figure out whether this actually worked out. You've got to look at the 900 pounds of

Which may ultimately mean boots, maybe it's Israeli boots on the ground. It's somebody's boots on the ground to actually figure out. They got Mossad boots on the ground already, probably. But having the 60% enriched 900 pounds or 450, whatever it is, if you don't have anything to further enrich it, I mean, there's been great progress either way. There may be some remnants left. But have you set it back by a couple of years or have you gotten there to stop doing this? Well, I mean, I hope it's set back for a while.

For decades. For 10 years, yeah, at least. But we know how fast 10 years goes by. And that's why... We could be talking about this again. But that's why you're going to... I imagine this is not over because people are going to want to check. It would be unbelievable if it was over in 12 days. What was the other... There's another... 1967 one. And how long was that? 11? 11 or 12 days, yeah. Yeah. People like to label...

Back here, skirmishing again with Fed Chair Powell. He's set to answer questions today from the House Financial Services Committee. He'll be giving a semiannual monetary policy report. Head of that report, President Trump again criticizing the Fed chair in an overnight post on True Social. Trump revived his too late nickname for Jay Powell and said that Powell will be in Congress today in order to explain, among other things, why he is refusing to lower the rate.

Europe has had 10 cuts. We have had zero. No inflation. Great economy. We should be at least two to three points lower. Other Fed speak on the agenda today as well, including from the heads of the Cleveland, New York and Boston branches. That branches moments ago. Reuters publishing an interview with Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic. He said he sees no need.

to cut rates now and expects a single quarter point rate cut later this year. I guess that's it. I assume that's what he means. He said inflation risks remain as businesses run out of ways to postpone tariff driven price hikes. Yesterday, Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee said if officials don't see any inflation resulting from the recent tariff increases,

that that should allow the Fed to consider cutting interest rates. People are in their little corners, and Austin's been there for a while. He's on the more dovish side. The inflation from tariffs is going to eventually show up or not. And, you know, if you're feeling comfortable about that and thinking it's not, by the way, this pullback in oil prices probably bolsters the case, if you are someone who would like to cut rates, we'll continue to watch it. Six-day war, by the way. The six-day war. That's really short. Yeah.

Exactly. Yeah, good cuts. Waller's saying we could do a good cut in July. He's saying even if you do see an eventual tariff effect, that he's always considered to be a one-time effect. Right, but for the president to say zero inflation, great economy, that doesn't...

takes away from the idea that you need a cut. If the economy's great and you're not seeing this pullback in the jobs market, it is less pressure on them to actually cut quickly before it's crazy. Well, he's got other reasons. I mean, we're going to be rolling over a lot of long-term debt that he'd like to roll over at 100 basis points less or 200. It would be a lot cheaper to finance. It would be. It would be. I wish we could have zero interest rates all the time. Yeah, if there was no inflation. I wish I had a zero mortgage. I really wish.

But I don't. Got a couple of them. Well, the numbers are in. Oklahoma City's Game 7 win on Sunday night over the Indiana Pacers was the most watched NBA Finals game in six years. It averaged 16.4 million viewers. That drama of Game 7 helped boost an otherwise lackluster series in terms of ratings. The entire series averaged just 10.3 million viewers per game. That was the least since 2021.

The game was aired on both Disney's ABC and ESPN Plus streaming services, but I gotta say that last seven, it went all the way to seven games. There was a ton of drama through the entire series.

And some really great teams. I mean, the Pacers really played up. You had Halliburton, who was amazing. I think he hit four game-winning shots through the entire series of all of these after-season games. And seeing him get hurt was just devastating. Two small markets. And in the last six years, you had...

who's who. You had the Celtics won one. You had the Lakers won one. This is great basketball. You had Steph Curry. You had Golden State when you had the Bucs. But this is the only seven-game series. Yeah, it was seven-game series. They played so hard. None of the others were seven-game series. Oh, and maybe that is it. You have more games to play. Well, it's just the final game. Final game. No, the final game. It's more exciting, and you get more inventory. Yeah. Right. So...

All politics are local. Is this more interesting to us? My God, we need to talk about this. I live in New York City. This guy, if you're right to say, wants to do supermarkets. Public supermarkets. Public supermarkets. Free childcare, rent freezes. Let's not gloss over the public supermarkets. Let's talk about what you want to do now. Would you like to walk down the aisles of the DMV looking for food?

That's not even what I'm worried about. Do you know how... I'm worried about if it succeeds. Do you know how it would be run? Andrew, there'd be nothing on the shelves. Nothing. Oh, see, I've already gone five steps past you. What's that? I'm worried that somehow he does it,

It works. It puts the other supermarkets out of business, which therefore, by the way, puts other people out. No, but then you then you all of a sudden people losing jobs. The whole thing could be you think my head explodes. This makes sense on a larger scale because this is an experiment that has played out in other cities. If you look at Chicago, if you look at San Francisco and we used to talk about if the public that we run public school. Can you imagine if supermarkets were run like public schools? And we used to talk about it and the shelves would be empty.

I'm not putting other people out of business. There's no way. Explain to me how this is, how, how this is, this race is super close. Because it's New York city. You explain to me, you're the one that lives here. I have no idea. It could elect Curtis Lewa.

Well, it'll be interesting. Well, we were going to talk about this after the break. All I was going to say is Cuomo right now. He'll probably win. Well, I don't know if he's going to win, but he may, he may not. I actually think he may not win. Cassie has, Cassie has Donnie. No, I thought they flipped back there. But I was going to say, yesterday it did flip. What does it say now? There's a couple things going on here. If it's that close, it doesn't matter. There's one big thing happening here. That guy. Think about Brad, Brad. Think about how warm it is outside. Yeah. What kind of turnout do you see? Younger people are,

are going to come out in droves in the heat. Older people not going to come out in the heat. It's just become an old crank. No, I don't think that's... It's not a crank. No, it's just... All those youngsters are going to steal our election. No, I'm not stealing it. I'm just saying it's the way... Number one, it's only 8 million people and only 700,000 even vote. I understand that, and that's why... And the young people you're talking about...

If they have air conditioning in their parents' basement, they're probably downloading another Fortnite. And I'm going to have a couple hits off the bong, and I'm not going to go vote. That's what they're doing. Why? They can go right to the commissary right next door. There's one on every block. They're definitely not going to vote. The old people at least feel a responsibility.

You know, you're losing all the young people, by the way. They're all Republicans now. Yeah. That's the latest polls out. No, it's true. Yeah, it is. Because they're not brainwashed. They're like so young and looking around, they can't even say boo to someone without getting canceled. They're sick of this stuff. And COVID. Because what's happened is you have folks in the Democratic Party right now who are... I mean, forget about Bernie Sanders. This is like true socialism here. The former bartender is...

I know. Endorsing this guy. I wouldn't trust her to make me a margarita, much less. Anyone else we can insult? She's not coming on anytime soon. Coming up. I'm just being the followers. A rundown. I'm standing up for young people, that they're not going to be the ones that elect Maldonnie.

I thought... Mom Donnie. Whatever. A rundown of market catalysts from... Hopefully we won't have to remember this person's name for much longer. The political uncertainty and tariffs... I think you might. I really think you might. I think you're wrong. I think... Pray for... You never thought you'd pray for Cuomo. I'm just saying, I think you might. And I think if he doesn't win, if Cuomo doesn't win today, all of a sudden Cuomo's going to try to run as independent.

That's going to be the next piece of this story. Don't look, like you said, don't look at me to explain what New York City is capable of. I take no responsibility. Part of it is the change in the voting. I leave at 9 in the morning. I'm barely here for four hours. Fourth and fifth choices. That's going to change the results of the election, too. Well, there's a bunch of winners on that side. Tease will be next.

Coming up, President Trump's anger at the not-quite-together ceasefire between Iran and Israel spills into his public comments. We're cable, so we're big boys and girls. We can handle it. And remember the $4 trillion tax and spending cuts legislative package moving its way through the Senate this week? Well, House member Mike Lawler of New York sure does.

to assault people, and it almost sounded like Lord of the Flies or something. He's one of the members fighting for the right of homeowners to deduct up to $40,000 in state and local taxes from their overall bills, and his counterparts in the upper chamber might just have that on the chopping block. This is a very foolish decision if you send back a bill with $10,000. This is not just about those bad blue states and penalizing taxpayers in those states. Squawk Pod will be right back.

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Mom, can you tell me a story? Sure. Uh, this is the story of Redfin. You mean Red Riding Hood? No, I mean Redfin. Once upon a time, there was born a real estate brokerage that was also a magical app. They called it Redfin.

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Mom, I heard this word and I want to know what it means. Uh, okay. What is escrow? I'll ask our Redfin agent. I'm sure they'll know. Download the Redfin app to get started. Fee subject to terms and minimums. Equal housing opportunity. CADRE number 01521930. Welcome back to Squawk Pod from CNBC with Joe, Becky, and Andrew. Here's Becky Quick.

All right, we should tell you about some news just coming out. President Trump just posting on Truth Social, Israel, do not drop those bombs. If you do, it is a major violation. Bring your pilots home now. Donald J. Trump, President of the United States. Now, President Trump just spoke to reporters on his way to Air Force One. We will bring you his comments in just a moment. But again, there was word that

Iran had dropped some bombs on Israel. Israel's defense minister was saying that they would respond and respond strongly. Well, someone's got to not respond to someone else's thing. That's because if it's going to be never ending. Someone's got to not respond, I think, at this point. So hopefully...

What is Israel at this point? What's the end? I'm not sure what Israel needs to accomplish at this point. I think there's a couple of things they need to look as long as there are missiles that Iran can send to Israel for Israel's perspective of Israel. They're sitting around going, we can't have this.

We can't have this. But they really wanted to get done when they neutralized. That was the endgame, was Fordo. Right. But when you have folks in Tel Aviv who are literally going into, you know, bunkers in the morning because there are alerts going off.

If you're running that country, you're saying this is an unacceptable outcome. Right. And so even if the nuclear piece is off the table, which is, of course, the thing that we care about and is the most important. But I think if you're Israel, I'm not sure you're going to allow this to continue this way. You wouldn't.

Hopefully, Israel, if you don't see Iran do anything, hopefully Israel is not going to once again just finish whatever it's... I mean, if it's... I'm saying I wish Israel wouldn't even respond to this. My problem is if they send the missiles over and then they think that they have to retaliate, the question is can they take out effectively all of these missiles? I don't know how you do that. I don't know what...

If that's practical, we're waiting for the sound that is coming from the president as he was on the White House lawn getting ready to leave. There are some reports of this coming out that where where he said both Israel and Iran violated the ceasefire that he announced hours earlier and that he was not happy. President Trump was speaking on his way to Air Force One as he heads to the NATO summit in the Netherlands. And now we have the sound. Here's what he said moments ago.

I don't think so, but I'm not happy that Israel is going out now. There was one rocket that I guess was fired overboard. It was after the time limit and it missed its target. And now Israel is going out. These guys got to calm down. Ridiculous. I didn't like plenty of things I saw yesterday. I didn't like the fact that Israel unloaded right after we made the deal. They didn't have to unload.

And I didn't like the fact that the retaliation was very strong. But in all fairness, Israel unloaded a lot. And now I hear Israel just went out because they felt it was violated by one rocket that didn't land anywhere. That's not what we want, I'll tell you. And I'm telling you, I'm not happy about that, Israel, either. All I do is play both sides. I'm going now, as you know, to NATO. Some of you are going with me, and I think it's going to be...

successful. We'll see. I'll let you know. The Press: Mr. President, are you going to speak to the agreement -- if you move on in the Middle East, to speak to the agreement you managed to achieve? What are your future plans for the region, for Saudi Arabia, Israel, Gaza, the hostages?

Look, you're asking me about women in the Middle East. It's getting a lot better. Things are happening at a high level. As you know, Saudi Arabia has done a really good job. It's coming out far, far faster than I thought. So we're very happy about what's happening with women in the Middle East. No, I'm talking about a new dawn in the Middle East that you managed to achieve last night. You know, the region is going to a new place.

with the peace agreements. Can you tell us what your future plans for Gaza, for the hostages? It's a new dawn. I appreciate the question. You're very nice. Who are you? Thank you. I'm Naria Kraus from Israeli Channel 13 News. Well, we have to have Israel calm down because they went on a mission this morning. I got to get Israel to calm down now.

-Do you plan to speak with the prime minister? -Did you talk to Prime Minister Netanyahu last night? -I spoke to everybody. -Are you going to call the prime minister? -You urge both sides not to violate the ceasefire, but reports coming from the region suggest that

the sides accuse each other for violating the ceasefire. I think they both violated it. I don't think they, I'm not sure they did it intentionally. They couldn't rein people back. I don't like the fact that Israel went out this morning at all. And I'm going to see if I can stop it. So as soon as I get away from you, I'm going to see if I can stop it. Okay?

I think it's been completely demolished. I think the reason we're here is because those pilots, those B-2 pilots did an unbelievable job.

And, you know, the fake news, like CNN in particular, they're trying to, you know, they're trying to say, well, I agree that it was destroyed, but maybe not that destroyed. You know what they're doing? They're really hurting great pilots that put their lives on the line. CNN is scum, and so is MSDNC. They're all. And frankly, the networks aren't much better. It's all fake news, but they should not have done that. Those pilots hit their targets. Those targets were obliterated.

And the pilots should be given credit. They're not after the pilots. They're after me. They want to try and demean me. The Press: But you don't believe that Iran can rebuild its nuclear program? The President: Well, I mean, Iran will never rebuild its nuclear. From there? Absolutely not. That place is under rock. That place is demolished.

The B-2 pilots did their job. They did it better than anybody could even imagine. They hit late in the evening. It was dark with no moon. And they hit that target with every one of those things. And that place is gone. But when I see CNN all night long, they're trying to say, well, maybe it wasn't really as demolished as we thought it was demolished. You take a look at the pinpricks.

And you see, that place is gone. And I will say, I think CNN ought to apologize to the pilots of the B-2s. I think that MSDNC ought to apologize. I think these guys really, these networks and these cable networks are real losers. You really are. You're real losers. It's real sad. It's real sad that they violated.

You're gutless losers. I say that to CNN because I watch it. I have no choice. I got to watch that garbage. It's all garbage. It's all fake news. But I think CNN is a gutless group of people. And the people that run it, nobody even knows it's been sold so many times. But the people that run it ought to be ashamed. MSDNC, a guy named Brian Roberts, he heads it. He's a disgrace. He's a weak, pathetic disgrace. He says that Ron violated the

Do you believe that Iran is still committed to peace? Yeah, I do. They violated it, but Israel violated it, too. Are you questioning if Israel is committed to peace? Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I've never seen before. The biggest load that we've seen. I'm not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, OK, now you have 12 hours, you don't go out in the first hour and just drop everything you have on them. So I'm not happy with them.

I'm not happy with Iran either. But I'm really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning because the one rocket that didn't land, that was shot, perhaps by mistake, that didn't land. I'm not happy about that. We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the they're doing. Do you understand that? Yep. The

Frustration was really evident from President Trump at that point, obviously ending with, we're cable, so we're big boys and girls, we can handle it. But I think that's a reflection of how really angry is more Israel, I think, at this point.

this point even it does sound like that look he took a big step that american presidents have been loath to take over the last several administrations no i would say with the dropping bomb busters on the border the the right bunker busters on ford oh that was a huge step that others have not taken people said he was completely on israel's side with this right israel um well that's going to get back to net yahoo that he just walked off saying i don't know what they that you know that that's

He said, I'm not happy with Israel. There's some anger. I'm not happy with Iran either, but I'm really not happy with Israel. What the F they're doing. With Israel, and especially if they take off. Now, then he went to Truth Social and said, those pilots that are in the air coming from Israel, you better turn them around. Okay.

because he said this was one bomb. This was the president's that Iran may have shot one missile in. Didn't land on anything. It didn't land on anything. It was shot down. And he said it could have been a mistake that they haven't been able to turn this back around. So he wants to see Israel hold back on retaliating for it. Strong words coming from the Israel defense minister earlier today. Tough talk to both. But that's President Trump as he's leaving to head for NATO. Right.

adult in the room i don't know they they enthuse i mean it's more than a squabble obviously and there's so much at stake but uh i can see where you'd be frustrated with your you really do want um i don't if the nuclear program is destroyed you're right andrew there's a lot of missiles left in iran but you're not going to fire the missiles right you're never going to get rid you know you're going to be a totally a country that has zero missiles so i don't think that's the end goal for for israel

But Israel needs to rebuild the Iron Dome, I think, now, too, because those missiles are a lot, obviously, probably a lot more deadly at this point because nobody knows how many of the defenses, what's left for, I mean, a lot has been depleted, you would think.

at this point. Yes, but I don't think they're missing missiles. I don't think they're missing missiles. The Patriot and the Iron Dome. You think the Iron Dome isn't as strong as it used to be? I think at this point, if it were a sustained onslaught from Iran, I think more would start getting through. I don't know. What do we know? Joining us now, Representative Mike Lawler from New York, also a member of the House Financial Services Committee, where Fed Chairman Jay Powell will appear later today. Okay, so

You can comment on what we're talking about. We just heard the president say, Congressman, you can comment on yesterday. They said they called you and some of your cohorts the salt people. And it almost sounded like Lord of the Flies or something. I'm not sure what it's like. Some weird group of individuals on the island that the hordes. I don't know. It sounded funny. Then we got J-PAL. Then we got J-PAL.

So we have all these things to talk about. First, let's talk about the Middle East. I know that we're all, you know, none of us are experts, but we're all willing to talk about it. But the president seemed really unhappy with even more with Israel in some of the comments he just made. Unhappy with both sides, but more particular with Israel.

Well, thanks for having me, Joe. Look, this is obviously a very complex situation. The Middle East always has been. And I certainly understand the president's frustration. He took decisive action, you know, less than 72 hours ago to eliminate those three nuclear sites and really put Iran's nuclear program on the brink.

And so, you know, obviously the objective has and remains to bring about peace. It's why the president fought so hard to get the Abraham Accords in his first term.

a term to actually normalize relations between Arab states and the state of Israel. And here he is trying to bring this conflict to an end. He is trying to bring the conflicts around the globe to an end because the reality is you cannot have peace and you cannot have prosperity if these conflicts rage on. And so obviously the threat of Iran's nuclear program was why the president made the decision to strike.

He would like to see a ceasefire. I think all of us recognize that we do not want a regional conflict. We do not want this spilling out into other parts of the Middle East or beyond. And so, you know, there's obviously clear frustration with the fact that

Iran and/or its proxies launched missiles, Israel obviously prepared to respond, and on and on it goes. And so, you know, this really is a moment where you want to see cooler heads prevail, you want to see the tensions come down, and actually work towards a long-term peace agreement and stop

this war. Obviously, Iran is the greatest state sponsor of terror. So it is not just a function of their nuclear program. It is their ballistic missiles program, which they have used extensively against Israel over the last year, as well as obviously their funding of terror proxies.

All of that needs to come to an end. All of that needs to be part of a long term negotiation towards peace. And if Iran is not capable of that, then obviously that will bear out in the days and weeks ahead. As we saw during the 60 days they were given to negotiate the end of their nuclear program and they chose not to. And now obviously we see the consequences of that.

But I forgot as a New Yorker, I forgot we could talk about what's happening today. Let's talk about the election, too. Yeah. But New York, New York City is never just about anything is possible. And that's one of the great things about New York is anything is possible in New York City.

No question about it. Obviously, today is Election Day. With rank choice voting, we're very unlikely to know the outcome today. It'll take a few days, if not a week, to count all the votes and tabulate it through this ridiculous rank choice voting system, which...

in my view, is really a violation of the Constitution and one person, one vote. But you have obviously a choice between Andrew Cuomo, the disastrous, disgraced former governor of New York,

and Zoran Mondami, who has aligned himself with the BDS movement and the radical protesters in the streets raging against Israel, engaged in anti-Semitism, an avowed socialist. So this is going to be a fascinating fight to the finish today.

You know, I really I look and obviously the fact that Cuomo's the front runner, if you will, is just based on one simple fact. The choices are disastrous for the city of New York.

I mean, these folks will make Bill de Blasio look competent. And so, you know, you look at what has happened over the past, you know, nearly 12 years with Democrat rule in New York City. They have destroyed the city. They have allowed crime to fester. Wall Street has left New York in droves and it has created a real crisis. And so

You know, we'll see what comes out of out of today's election. But I will tell you, if Zoran Mondami wins, that does not bode well for New York. Well, that's interesting, Representative. I'm curious, given your dim view of both candidates.

Which one you ultimately would prefer, because the truth is you could see a situation where if one of these candidates were to win, that maybe a Republican or an independent ultimately when you get to when you get to the final vote vote could ultimately come in. Right. I mean, and there's even talk about Cuomo, if you were to lose running as an independent separately so that he's sort of hedging his bets in all sorts of different ways. I don't know if that would work or not.

Yeah, regardless of the primary outcome today, you're going to have a multi-candidate general election, including Eric Adams, the current mayor, Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate. And Cuomo has an independent ballot line.

And Mondami likely will be on the Working Families Party line. So you're going to have a multi-candidate race. I think, you know, at that point, you know, anything could happen. But, you know, just on Andrew Cuomo, I think it's important for people to remember. Andrew Cuomo is the one who signed cashless bail into law. Andrew Cuomo is the one that signed congestion pricing into law. Andrew Cuomo is the one that made New York a sanctuary state.

Andrew Cuomo is the one that shut down Indian Point and blocked natural gas. So, so many of the challenges that New York is facing stem from the policies that Andrew Cuomo championed and signed into law. So Andrew Cuomo by no means, you know, is this great choice for New York. But if you had to pick between the two, I guess, I don't know, the top candidates right now, but the ones that are polling. I would pick neither. I would pick neither. I would pick neither. They're both disastrous for New York. You're picking Brad Land or what are you doing?

he's ready and no i'm not listen i'm a republican i'm not a democrat so i wouldn't choose any of these folks they they have all contributed to the downfall of new york city where do you land on their own mayor then representative rudy rudy oh my god listen you you have you have a a uh you know hobson's choice here i mean frankly it's just it is really unfortunate for new york um

And that's frankly why many people do at least look towards Cuomo because they at least view him as serious as compared to some of these people. But I just, to me, this is a very awful choice for New Yorkers in today's Democratic primary.

I don't think any of them are a great option. Curtis Lewa obviously is the Republican candidate. We'll see what happens in a general election here when you have a multi-candidate race. And if Zoran Mondami is the Democratic nominee, I certainly think Curtis Lewa has a pathway. It's kind of like a microcosm of the national Democratic candidate.

party. No question. Congressman, let me ask you about salt. You have been a huge proponent of raising that salt cap limit. The House put together a bill that had a $40,000 cap limit instead of the $10,000 that currently exists. The Senate took a look at it and said, nope, slashed it back to $10,000. You had said that this was going to be dead on arrival if that's the case. Where do those negotiations stand?

Nowhere. And I would just say to my Republican colleagues in the Senate, you know, this is a very foolish decision if you send back a bill with $10,000. The fact is, 29 states over the last seven years blew through the $10,000 cap on salt. This is not just about those bad blue states.

and penalizing taxpayers in those states. The fact is that this is an issue of double taxation. It was used as a pay-for for other provisions within the tax bill. We have been very clear. We understand that we're not getting everything we want. We understand we're not getting unlimited. If we did, things like the AMT would come back in full force, and that would be disastrous for New York.

uh... and uh... and the country so we recognize that we negotiated in good faith with the speaker with the white house we came to an agreement on a forty thousand dollar cap with a five hundred thousand dollar income cap which faces back down to ten thousand

when you phase that out and you get around to about $620,000 in income. And you have to remember, the AMT goes into effect at 500,000 for individuals, a million for those filing jointly. So we are cognizant of all of it. We made a good faith negotiation. This is the deal, and everybody should stick to it. Congressman, I want to read you something that President Trump just posted on Truth Social.

He says, "Israel is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home while doing a friendly plane wave to Iran. Nobody will be hurt. The ceasefire is in effect." Thank you for your attention to this matter, Donald J. Trump, President of the United States. Your reaction?

Look, I think obviously the president very clearly had a conversation with the prime minister and cooler heads prevailed. You have to give the ceasefire an opportunity to work and to come to the negotiating table and get to a

hopefully a deal that brings about lasting peace and prosperity in the Middle East. I was just there three weeks ago as chair of the Middle East and North Africa subcommittee. I met with the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia. I met with Prime Minister Netanyahu. I met with King Abdullah of Jordan. Everybody is in agreement on two things. One,

Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. And two, they want peace and prosperity across the region. They are tired of this. They want it to come to an end. So President Trump is in a moment where if he can forge lasting peace, it'll be the best thing that can happen for the Middle East, for America, and for the world. And we have to give that an opportunity to work.

Congressman, thanks. How do we talk the Fed? We'll talk about J-PAL and the Fed next time, but we covered a wide range of subjects, but that's why it's called the news of business. Thank you. There you go. Good to have you on, Congressman. Thanks, Jeff.

Next on Squawk Pod, New York City Democrats vote today to select a candidate for mayor of the Big Apple and a late surge for the young socialist Zoran Mamdani, who advocates rent freezes and public supermarkets against former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Well, it is catching attention from the betting markets to the water coolers. The partnership for New York's Kathy Wild is a bit of a CEO whisperer, and those leaders might just be calling her now in a panic about this race.

The policies that Mamdani is advocating respond to the fact that we have become the most expensive city in America, both the cost of living and the cost of doing business.

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You're listening to Squawk Pod. Up and Andrew, cue. Welcome back to Squawk Box. Today is election day here in New York City where New Yorkers will cast their votes in the Democratic primary for mayor. Joining us right now is Catherine Wild, a partnership for New York City president and CEO.

Good morning to you. We've been talking about how there is, dare I say, like a little bit of a panic attack happening, I think, in the business community about how close to the wire, down to the wire this is going. I think that the business community was hoping for Cuomo to win. And now this avowed socialist is, at least from Polymarket and Kalshi and some of these other polls and things, either very close or in some case winning.

What's going on inside the minds of the CEOs that work with you? Well, I think they've noticed there's a race and they're not terribly happy with the direction it's going. That would be correct. Is that the polite way to put it? Probably so, but terror would be...

perhaps more accurate. Terror is the feeling? Terror is the feeling. In the sense that, you know, we have worked so hard over many years to bring New York back from 9/11, from past crises, from the COVID, in particular, in the last five years. And honestly,

New York is in much better shape than the political rhetoric would have you believe. We've got a trillion dollar economy. We've got more jobs than we've ever had, 4.8 million. I mean, we are not falling apart. We've got a strong tax base, stronger than ever. So there's much positive in New York, but that

That could quickly shift if we lose confidence in the mayor and if we don't find practical solutions to the problems ahead. And unfortunately,

the candidate who's surging, Zoran Mandami, presents an ideological argument about the solution to every problem is to spend more money. And it's more taxpayer money. So, you know, the business community is very concerned. And therefore doing what about it? Meaning, is there, what we don't know, and I haven't heard, is the business community, you know, leading drives to push employees to go vote today, to do all sorts of things? It

By the way, he's come on so strong

frankly, in the last 72 hours that I don't know if anybody was actually, like, mobilized before this. Now, the business community doesn't... Nobody wants to, especially these days, play in partisan politics in a public way. They've got customers on all sides. They've got employees on all sides. We have a very young workforce in New York City, so you can only imagine that getting out the vote among the youth of the city has been very good for Zoran Mandami. So...

So there is a... There's an issue there. So you think he might. He might do it, but then you don't think he's the eventual mayor. I don't. I think that... I think people will come to their senses. I think that... And not Cuomo, though. You think... But would Cuomo run as an independent? You think Eric Adams... I like Eric Adams, too. That would be an amazing... I would not count Eric Adams, Mayor Adams, out. I would not count him out. I think that...

For one thing, he has showed humility and apologized, and I think that matters to New Yorkers. The first class upgrade? For that stuff, you mean? For, well, no. Or for appeasing the bad orange man. That's more of a problem for him than... I think that nobody likes to see the first mayor in history to be indicted.

He was indicted because he got off the reservation on immigration. Those were ridiculous charges. Well, I'm not going to argue with you that...

That the mayor I think has a shot to come back be amazing I think that the more than Cuomo well the city the city again is being painted as being in terrible shape and it's not in terrible shape I mean the big challenges we face right now are basically coming from the federal government the threats of cuts in food stamps in housing vouchers

In general, the fiscal challenges we're facing are coming from the federal government. Our economy is healthy. What do you think would happen if Mamdani did take over? Where would you see the city a year from now, two years from now? Well, the truth is New York City is very much subservient to Albany, to our state government. Constitutionally, we have a very strong state government.

We've got a governor who is moderate and thoughtful and has shown that she is tough. So I have no doubt that the worst is not going to happen. Whoever we elect as mayor, it's not going to be a disaster because we have a state government that is going to avoid that. So when you say, I want to know about the supermarkets. Can we just talk about the supermarkets? I think you're crazy.

They're not putting anyone out of business. Government-run supermarkets aren't putting anyone out of business. They're not going to have anything on the shelves. I guess what I'm trying to figure out is between what he's doing with that, he's very popular. And I just wonder whether you think that... And I'm trying to figure out... Giving everything away. If the candidate who promises the most giveaways wins, then... I agree. But what I'm trying to figure out is the business community in New York City is not...

necessarily. I mean, some are and some aren't. Speak for yourself. No, I'm just saying, I'm saying as a population, in terms of the politics of dealing, if you're a business leader and you don't like this, the question is, what do you do about it? And the question is, you know, you have Cuomo, you have a couple of these other candidates, they're all, so whatever happens today, there's going to be a whole other

race because Cuomo, if he loses today, will end up being an independent. And then you'll have everybody in these different parties. And do you see a whole slug of money coming into this race? I mean, I'm curious what you said the business community doesn't want to get involved in politics. They might hear. My question is whether they ultimately will.

Perhaps. I mean, for one thing, a lot of the money has come from the Jewish community, which is probably more concerned than anybody. We've had a rise in anti-Semitism since October 7th. And Mamdani has not been effective in communicating. Here's the picture on the post. He's out one of the Gaza... I think that's a Gaza one, isn't it? It's an intifada, global intifada protest. It's very insensitive. He's there on the microphone.

egging them on. Yeah. No, it's... So I don't... I think that you're correct. The...

The policies that Mamdani is advocating respond to the fact that we have become the most expensive city in America, both the cost of living and the cost of doing business. And everybody knows that this is a direction that's not sustainable, that we have to figure out how to reduce costs. You do not reduce costs by raising taxes.

That just adds to costs. New York isn't the place where people point. It's Chicago. You saw the Chicago Tribune yesterday's editorial telling us, be careful what you wish for in terms of electing a socialist mayor. Kathy, I think the question was brought up how this was all going to be paid for. And he suggested, Mamdani, that you raise taxes. You had a good response to that.

Well, the response is that we already have the highest taxes in the country, and if we raise taxes further, we're asking for trouble. You had Mike Lala on here earlier talking about the state and local tax deduction. In 2018, we lost the ability to deduct state and local taxes. That changed the game. When we talk about why people gravitated out of the city, high earners, we've lost more than half our high earners.

now live outside New York. I was trying to look at what is the delta? Okay, so the highest tax rate with federal and everything baked in with the city and the state is what? So if you're at the highest end, W-2. For earned income, 60%. You're at 60%. Of your income is going to taxes. Okay. If you live in New York. And the delta between the 60% number and let's call it Florida or Texas or name some- 30 points.

Well, it can't be 30 points because it... Pretty close. It is. Well, New York State and New York City taxes. But the highest federal number is what, 37? Yeah, but it's on marginal, on that... Right.

You're saying a lot of this is, you know, the capital gains and stuff like that. So for the high earners, it's a different equation. But the point is that the differential is substantial. You take home. I've seen the numbers and it's something like if you earn two hundred thousand dollars, you take home one hundred thousand, almost more in Florida than you do. You can live rent free in a penthouse. Yeah. On the ocean down there.

But on the other hand, we've obviously seen there's going to be some relief in state and local tax deductibility, but there's also a penalty. There's a huge threat that the Senate is making and the House made, which is to take away the pass-through option for taxpayers who are in partnerships, LLCs, S-Corps, small business, and lawyers, doctors, consultants,

Their level to lose their tax deductibility, just like individual earners did back in 2018 under the House bill, that's gone. That's a disaster for New York because that is a big sector of our population at risk. Most businesses are small businesses.

Yes, exactly. Exactly. No, and our small business economy is really threatened already by the tariff situation. The Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce did a survey of their members, and 23% said they'd be out of business if these high tariffs stayed in place because they depend on goods coming from overseas. So we have lots of challenges, but the solutions to them are not easy.

They're not ideological. They are real solutions. If we're going to reduce cost, we have to reduce cost, not spend more tax dollars to make up the gap. Oh, my God. You have moved so... I love you today. You've really had a renaissance. Because we're not talking about congested. Exactly. You have had a renaissance to the middle. Which is working very well.

By the way, I'll give you the justice pricing. Thank you, Mom Dommy. She put Catherine all the way to the center. Kathy, thank you for coming in this morning. Thank you. Thank you so much. Good to see you.

That is SquawkPod for today. Thanks for listening. SquawkBox is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Please tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern or get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears when you follow SquawkPod wherever you like to get your podcasts. Have a great Tuesday, and we'll meet you right back here tomorrow. We are clear. Thanks, guys.

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