Israel & Iran: Oil, Iran’s Nuclear Program, & What’s Next 6/13/25
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Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. On today's supersized Squawk Pod. Israel strikes in Iran. Questions about who knew and how because you had to get the interview over. Well, they knew, but it doesn't mean we were involved.

Reaction in Washington with Megan Kosella. The White House was emphasizing as these attacks were unfolding overnight that the U.S. was not involved and that it was not providing assistance. And the impact on oil markets with RBC's Halima Croft. What do the Iranians do? Do they try to internationalize the cost of what happened last night by trying to raise oil prices further? Kareem Sanjadpour, senior fellow of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East program, on the ego and the strategy.

At the moment, Iran has been really humiliated and they don't have a great hand to play. And at Brookings, head of foreign policy research Michael Hanlon says retaliation will likely come. I don't think Iran will strike the United States with any vehemence. There's a chance they'll feel the need to do something symbolic. Plus, what does it all mean for Iran's nuclear program? Talks were scheduled for this weekend. NBC's Matt Bradley reports from Tel Aviv.

Looks as though Trump's effort to try to get this deal done has been scuttled by Israel's actions. It is Friday the 13th of June. A jam-packed Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand back, you buy in three, two, one, cue, please.

Good morning everyone. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We're live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan. Andrew's off today, but we are watching very closely the reaction to everything we're hearing from the Middle East after that Iranian strike, the strike on Iran from Israel. Here's the latest updates on Israel's attack.

and Iran's response. Israel said 200 of its fighter jets participated in the attack, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories, and Iranian military commanders.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said its top commander was in fact killed. According to an Israeli military official, the country has shot down many of the more than 100 drones that Iran launched in response to the attack. Israel's military said it was forced to act based on new information, showing that Iran was approaching the point of no return and some conjecture just days away.

apparently, in developing a nuclear weapon. Iran's atomic energy organization saying parts of a key uranium enrichment facility were damaged, but no nuclear radiation has occurred at this point. This all comes as U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled, Ambassador Witkoff, to hold a sixth round of talks on Iran's nuclear program this weekend in Oman.

President Trump just posting on Truth Social in the last couple of minutes. Here's what he had to say there. I gave Iran a chance after chance to make a deal. I told them in the strongest of words to just do it. But no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn't get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated or were told.

that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the world by far, and that Israel has a lot of it with much more to come, and they know how to use it. Certain Iranian hardliners spoke bravely, but they didn't know what was about to happen. They are all dead now, and it will only get worse.

There's already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal come to an end. Iran must make a deal before there is nothing left and save what was once known as the Iranian empire. No more death, no more destruction. Just do it before it is too late. God bless you all.

This is something where yesterday President Trump was talking and was saying he hoped it wouldn't happen. There were clearly moves or indications that this might happen by the removal of U.S. embassy personnel in the Middle East, specifically in Baghdad, and people had asked about that. The United States to this point has tried to say that it was not involved with this.

and that any strikes should not be taken or any retaliatory strikes should not be taken on American assets in the Middle East. But obviously, a lot still circulating about this and questions about who knew and how, because you had to get the air right over. We probably knew, but it doesn't mean we were involved. Or that we were in favor. And Israel, obviously, is a sovereign nation that has a right to defend itself. And a nuclear-armed Iran said for years it's something that

can't be allowed to happen. And nuclear-armed Iran that has said that the death and destruction in Israel is its goal. The most recent back and forth we saw, remember, Iran did respond to Israel. And it was, remember, it was almost looked like it was six months ago. It was done intentionally to not posit. Now, was it intentional or do they have the ability? That's what you said.

With the Iron Dome. At the time, they said it was, they knew this was coming, but they were given a little bit of advance warning, maybe 10 minutes. But it almost looked like Iran knew they had to do something, but didn't, I don't hesitate to say their heart wasn't in it, but it wasn't as bad as it could have been. They said, we're done, we're not going to do anything else. Now, do they have the capacity to do much worse? I guess they probably do. But I think Israel, as the president just said, Israel's got a lot of U.S.-made weapons,

and they said he said at that point and more to come which does suggest that the americans would support iran in their defense that has been one of the questions would the u.s and other countries come to israel's defense before these retaliatory strikes happen

For more on the reaction in Washington this morning, we want to get over to CNBC's Megan Casella. Megan, obviously these attacks happened last night just after 8 p.m. East Coast time, but we've been watching closely all night and there has been plenty of reaction.

Plenty of reaction, Becky. That's right. And as you guys were just saying, the White House was emphasizing as these attacks were unfolding overnight that the U.S. was not involved and that it was not providing assistance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had the first official reaction from the administration saying that Israel took unilateral action against Iran. And he went on to say that, quote, we are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is to

is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense. President Trump and the administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners. And he ends with this. Let me be clear. Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel. But

But the decision to move forward with the attacks did appear to be a pretty significant break with the administration, which has been negotiating a nuclear deal, sort of a more peace deal to try to, you know, acknowledge Israel—

Israel's and Iran's nuclear capabilities. So just earlier on Thursday, the president had told reporters that he would much prefer the friendlier path to an agreement. And the next round of those meetings was set for Saturday. But Iran not appearing to see the daylight between the U.S. and Israel on this. Iran's foreign minister saying that Israel's aggressive actions

could not have happened without the coordination and approval of the United States. And therefore, he said, the U.S. government is also responsible for the dangerous consequences of these actions. Now, that comes as Israel and the region are bracing for Iran to retaliate today and after, as you guys mentioned, President Trump began voluntary departures for nonessential staff and families from the region earlier this week.

And, guys, NBC News reported that the president's national security team did monitor these strikes in real time from the Situation Room. And we know from the president's schedule for today that he'll be back in the Situation Room with his security team later this morning around 11:00 a.m. Guys? Megan, the one thing I would say is that the Truth Social post that the president just put up in the last few minutes

are are do less to kind of shine or to to illustrate the daylight between the united states and israel if anything it sounds like he is much more closely allied with them and saying that the united states is going to send more military help uh to defend israel

That's right. I think the distinction that we've been starting to see emerge so far, and I think this comes out in the Post as well, and with what Secretary of State Rubio said, is that they were saying they were not involved in these original attacks. And I know you guys were talking about the question of whether the president knew beforehand. There are multiple reports that he knew this was at least very likely to be coming soon. NBC News and I have not confirmed that independently with the White House. But earlier Thursday, the president did say

that while he wouldn't call it imminent, he thought something was very likely here. But the distinction is between whether the U.S. was helping with this initial round of attacks and now whether they'll help with the continuing rounds and with the ongoing defense as well. U.S. obviously bracing for this retaliation and now saying that they are steadfast really in their support for Israel. We're seeing a lot of reaction from Capitol Hill and Republicans saying they

But really on both sides saying that, you know, while there might be unnecessary violence now in the region, they stand by Israel and Israel's right to defend itself as well. Megan, thank you.

We haven't seen prices like this in oil for quite a while. Let's bring in Halima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets and a CNBC contributor. Is this about what you would expect with something like this? This is about what we'd expect. I think the key thing to watch now will be what will the Iranian retaliation look like beyond the drone strike that we saw yesterday.

Obviously, people will be paying attention to the regional energy infrastructure. There's a lot of concern over the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global oil supply goes through there on a daily basis. But I do think the real question is, do the Iranians do what they did in 2019 when they targeted pipelines, tankers, hit Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility? We have a playbook for what Iran can do. I think it looks more like 2019 than the Straits of Hormuz. So we've seen what they've done in the past, and you don't think they

they have the ability to make it far worse? Oh, I think 2019 is far worse. And the question about Straits of Hormuz is, can they close the Straits of Hormuz? I've heard assessments that it would be very difficult for the Iranians to close the Straits of Hormuz given the presence of the U.S. 5th Fleet in Bahrain. But they could target tankers there. They could mine the Straits. We did see a lot of this going on during the Iran-Iraq war in the 80s.

Again, the question is going to be, what do the Iranians do? Do they try to internationalize the cost of what happened last night by trying to raise oil prices further? Do they just target Israel? Do they try to off-ramp the situation? But this is such an amazing escalation in terms of hitting not only the Tonson enrichment facility, head of the Revolutionary Guard killed last night, a number of top scientists, top generals killed. Like, this is a devastating blow.

If they were able to close the Straits of Hormuz, as unlikely as it seems, I think J.P. Morgan has said the worst case is you're talking about a super spike. Of course it would be a super spike. But again, I don't even think they need to do that to have oil prices move higher from here. Again, I would pay attention to

facilities across the region. Iran backs militias in Iraq. They could target Iraq's four million barrel production. Again, we saw a playbook in 2019. When we reimpose maximum pressure sanctions, the Iranians hit tankers off the coast of UAE. They hit pipelines. They hit Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility, taking off half of Saudi's production temporarily. It is noteworthy

that countries in the region such as saudi arabia cut our have come out and condemn the israeli action they do not want to be targeted by iran this time around so again there's a lot to be watching in terms of the region in terms of oil my guess is they probably are not sorry too see iran's nuclear ambitions setback even though they don't want to say that i think this is what they have to they have to walk a line between

being content with Iran's nuclear ambitions being set back, but also they do not want to be the target of any Iranian retaliation. So they normalize, the Saudis normalize relations in Iran, with Iran in 2023. They are not best of friends, but they want to de-risk the neighborhood. So again, I think they are trying to hope that the Iranians don't turn their attention to them. - You're all about oil, but I'm just wondering about what the response for Israel

What that holds, is the Iron Dome totally replenished from all the... Well, we have said that we have helped replenish Iron Dome. I think the really interesting question is, does the United States get involved in this conflict? Even further. Because, yes, Natanz was hit, but that is not the more serious Iranian enrichment facility. That is for dough. That is a much more impenetrable facility...

That's where the high speed centrifuges are located. That's where they are enriching uranium at near weapons grade level. That facility was not hit. And there is a view in security circles that that would require US assistance. They will need our bunker busting bombs to take out Fordow. So it was a blow against one facility,

But it looks like Fordow is still standing. They have some of our bunker-busting bombs? Are we the only ones able to deploy? So there is a view, and I think it's a view that was widely held in Western intelligence services, that Israel does not have the capabilities to fully dismantle Fordow. And that, again, the Iranians have transferred their faster centrifuges for deployment.

Fordow for a reason. It's much more impenetrable. So the question is, do they reconstitute their program? Does the United States get more involved? Are we looking for an... I mean, Iran knows that then. We would... To get involved to that extent, do you think that they'd have to directly attack some of our assets? I think that the key question or the red line for President Trump has always been, and again, he's somebody who does not want U.S.

engagement in the Middle East militarily on an extended basis. But he has this red line, or he's had this red line in this first administration of no Americans can be killed. And remember what happened when you had an Iraqi or American contractor in Iraq killed in January 2020. That's when he launched the downstrike on Qasem Soleimani, head of the IRGC Quds Force. So the question is, do the Iranians decide that it's too risky to target any U.S. bases in the region? There are about 40 to 50,000

thousand U.S. troops in the region. Then the bunker busters could be on the way. Yes, I would really pay attention to, for now, the White House has said they were not involved in yesterday's attack. They have told the Iranians to avoid targeting U.S. personnel and interest in the region. Again, the red line that we have seen President Trump enforce is on the death of Americans. What do you think Vladimir Putin would say to

Donald Trump about this or President Xi? Do we even talk about Russia or China? Well, I mean, China is basically the sole buyer of Iranian barrels at this point. I think, obviously, it's not in China's interest to have this blow up. It's an unholy threesome. Well, add in North Korea as well, and you've got a whole gang of four.

But again, the question is, you know, Putin can say have views and thoughts on this, but I don't think he's going to be critical to the conversation to the White House in terms of where this goes. For the spike that we saw overnight in oil prices, that's the biggest jump since March of 2022 for Brent. And that was right when Russia was invading Ukraine. Right. And when Russia invaded Ukraine, there had been this concern that we would impose serious sanctions on Russian oil. We did not. It stayed on the market.

Again, key to watch now is does Iran target facilities in the region? And there's a wild card. If this war is extended, and Israel has indicated this will be at least a multi-week military operation, do they decide to target Karg Island? 90% of Iranian oil exports leave terminals on that island. Is there a vacuum at the top of the Iranian military right now? I know the Revolutionary Guard, but...

Who's sitting around deciding what to do? Well, the Supreme Leader of Iran is the ultimate authority on these matters. But you are right. And this has not just been what happened last night. The Israelis have been doing multiple targets of Iranian key generals. They have targeted, obviously, Hezbollah, the main proxy of Iran, has been decimated. So, again, I would pay attention to what some of the remaining proxies are able to do. Pay close attention to the Iraqi militias that Iran backs.

and pay very close attention to the Houthis. - We're looking at oil prices now at the highest levels, I think since January 21st or something.

That has been, obviously this is secondary to anything that's happening from a geopolitical standpoint, but it is going to matter to the U.S. economy down the road. It will matter to President Trump. This has been the inflationary pressures that we have not seen show up. This has been his good news economic story consistently has been oil prices. And yesterday President Trump said oil prices are too high. So does he make calls to OPEC countries? Does he try to get more oil on the market?

But they are not necessarily going to want to be seen as enabling the Israeli strikes as well. That's what I would wonder. Does...

what what would it take for oil prices to come back down with this sort of I think there would need to be a view that Iran is not going to target regional energy infrastructure that OPEC's going to continue to put barrels on the market market participants feel like they have gotten burned multiple times you brought up the Russian invasion of Ukraine market participants were betting on a supply disruption that did not happen and so market participants are

are going to wait and see is this that ceiling or the floor in terms of this conflict so if the saudis

agree to supply more, does that make Iran mad? So we already have a rolling increase of OPEC barrels, and we are expected to have more of this voluntary cut drawn down. But I do think that OPEC countries will be concerned about coming out right now in the aftermath of yesterday and being seen as facilitating this. Exactly. They might.

Again, I think President Trump has, we have seen the, every month we've been getting about 411,000 on paper additional OPEC barrels. We will get an announcement in a couple weeks about what the numbers for the coming months will look like. So you figure someone from the White House is talking to OPEC and so on. I mean, that has always been the hotline between Washington and Riyadh is a longstanding tradition.

Sometimes it went there. There's a hotline? We call it the hotline. They have close relations right now. Very close relations. To Saudi Arabia. I guess that's a good thing. Halima Croft, thank you. Thank you for having me. Cheese will be next.

Stay tuned because we do have more ahead on this developing story. Kareem Sajjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment on the tough spot Iran is in among Middle East neighbors. Iran knows that those countries have a very close relationship with the Trump administration. If they were to launch attacks on oil installations, it would likely trigger a massive U.S. military invasion. Squawk Pod will be right back.

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Welcome back. This is Squawk Pod today with Joe Kernan and Becky Quick. In 3, 2, 1. Becky's mic. 2, 1.

Israel launching a series of strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and missile sites, killing top Iranian military officials. According to the Israeli military, the country has shot down many of the more than 100 drones that Iran launched in response to that attack.

Joining us right now is Kareem Sajapur. He is Middle East program senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And Kareem, what what do you make of what's happening? These strikes, how effective were they? What do you think the retaliation will be? Well, this is an incredibly significant moment. Not only have Iran's nuclear sites been destroyed,

damaged, and we'll see the full extent of that in the coming days. But Israel also decapitated, assassinated Iran's senior nuclear scientists and some of its top military officials. One person in particular, Ali Shankhani, was someone who was arguably Iran's top strategist and was often thought of as someone who, after the current supreme leader dies, could play a major leadership role inside Iran.

What will Iran do in retaliation? What do you think is the expected, maybe the measured approach or the not so measured approach?

So Iran has a very weak hand at the moment because historically in these situations, it would, for example, threaten to unleash its proxies, Lebanese Hezbollah. But what's happened over the last six months is that Israel decimated one of Iran's proxies in the Palestinian territories, obviously Hamas. It decimated Lebanese Hezbollah.

which led to the collapse of another of Iran's key allies, the Assad regime in Syria. So in the regional context, Iran has a very weak hand. Now some of its top military commanders have been assassinated. Another thing that Iran would traditionally do in a situation like this is to go after oil installations in some of the Persian Gulf countries, in Saudi Arabia, in the UAE.

But, you know, Iran knows that those countries have a very close relationship with the Trump administration. If they were to launch attacks on oil installations, it would likely trigger a massive U.S. military invasion. So the big question now is what Iran chooses to do with its nuclear program.

Does it bide its time or does it announce that it's no longer simply pursuing nuclear energy and it needs to move forward with a nuclear weapon? Even that is fraught with enormous risk because its nuclear program has been pretty thoroughly penetrated and that would likely trigger US military action. So Iran has a very weak hand right now and they're led by an 85-year-old Supreme Leader who knows how much cognitive bandwidth he has to deal with a crisis like this nowadays.

Kareem, Halima Croft was just here, and she said that even though there were these attacks on the nuclear institute, some of the places that were hit very hard, that most of the...

the refining is being done right now at Fordow and that is very well fortified that was not attacked and that probably would require U.S support and intervention for Israel to be able to go after that how significant is that how well armed does that still leave Iran and

You know, we heard reports that they could have been within 15 days. That hasn't been confirmed, but they could have been within days of being able to have the ability to put together a nuclear bomb. How far do you think this sets things back? You know, the intelligence reports that I've seen has consistently shown that they're just weeks away from having enough fissile material.

for a nuclear weapon, but to actually assemble a bomb that's usable, I think they were probably more like at least six months to a year away. But as Halima importantly mentioned, that facility in Fordow outside of the city of Oum, which is buried perhaps

as much as half a mile deep below a mountain, is something that's debatable. The Israelis say that they can reach it. Most American generals say that they cannot. And so Iran's nuclear program hasn't been totally eliminated. So as I mentioned, that's not a big question. Does Iran

continue to negotiate with the United States. There were meant to be negotiations this coming weekend on Oman. I'm skeptical that Iran will attend those negotiations. But at the same time, Iran doesn't have a great hand to play, because if they announce that we've now been forced to pursue a nuclear weapon, that will trigger not only Israeli but likely U.S. military action. And

Iran's program is so thoroughly penetrated by Israeli intelligence in particular that I don't think they would be able to get away with that. So at the moment, Iran has been really humiliated and they don't have a great hand to play. Do you think that there is planning right now to take the steps necessary to get to that other facility?

Kareem, I mean, the die has been cast. I don't know what more, you know, can you make, can you even, would you accelerate things by going after that other facility? There's a stated objective to get rid of this nuclear program. Why wouldn't we think that there are plans being discussed right now to take out the other facility, Fort Oaks?

Well, the U.S. government certainly has had those plans for probably well over a decade, a military plan to attack Bordeaux. So that is not in question. You know, the thing about President Trump, which it confused Iran in his first administration as well, because on several occasions they provoked Trump. They didn't see a response, and they thought he was a paper tiger, which led to Trump killing

their top military commander, Qasem Soleimani. But my sense is right now, so long as Iran doesn't choose to advance its program in Fordow, I'm skeptical that Trump will want to enter the fray militarily. Now, the other question is whether

these Israeli attacks are over. The Israelis may well decide that they still want to take a hit at Fordow. One of the reasons why this attack happened now was last fall Israel took out Iran's air defense systems. So Israel had a sense of urgency to launch other strikes before Iran was able to rebuild its air defense system. So that's a big question of whether the Israelis choose to go after Fordow. And

And as I said, how the Iranians choose to play it. My sense is that any moves the Iranians make at Fordow will easily be picked up by foreign intelligence. And I don't think Iran's supreme leader is confident he'd be able to get away with a dash, kind of a discrete dash for the bomb. If Israel has the capabilities to take out Fordow, why didn't they in this strike? What would hold them back?

Well, if you talk to some Israeli generals, they will say they have that capability. Most U.S. military commanders will say no. That requires bunker-busting bombs, which the Israelis don't have. So that is open to debate.

you know, I think that, you know, part of the concern from, you know, some folks, even within the Trump administration, was that this would be a war that Israel could start, but a war which Israel couldn't finish. And the fear was that, you know, Israel would drag the United States into a conflict. And one thing I want to emphasize is that

You know, when bombs start dropping, it's totally unpredictable how this will play out. I mean, if we were covering the Iraq war in 2003, the early days of the Iraq war looked like a cakewalk, right? We took Saddam Hussein out in a matter of weeks. A year or two later, the situation was very different. So, you know, things are totally unpredictable. But at the moment,

The Iranian regime has a very weak hand to play. And ultimately, this is a regime which is not suicidal. It wants to stay in power. So my expectation is that, you know, they need to react in some way to save face. And they've launched some ineffectual drones. But my sense is they're going to bide their time and wait for the right moment to respond. The Biden administration, we know that some weapons that, you know, there was a line drawn at what we were willing to do.

for Israel. So they don't have any of these bunker buster bombs at this point.

Would we know if we supplied Israel with those, like starting now? Would we know if we were... And if Israel were to use one of those, would, because we supplied it, is that the same as entering the war for the U.S.? Yeah, so that's not a weapon of that size and caliber. It's not something you would be able to provide clandestinely. Even legally, I think it would be, you know, the U.S. Congress would...

would like to have to operate. There's a federal judge out there, Karim, that would, yeah, you're right. Yeah, but no, that would be, in fact, you would want to, if you're the U.S. government, you probably would want to advertise that. You don't want to keep that because that sends a huge message to Iran that Israel now does have that capacity. From that extent, though, President Trump,

put on Truth Social about 45 minutes ago. He said the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the world by far, and Israel has a lot of it with much more to come. Is that the implicit threat or maybe the explicit threat that he's issuing to the Iranian regime?

I think that's absolutely right. I mean, if you're reading ahead in anticipation of what you just asked me about what Iran does in Fordow, you know, it does seem to be a message that if you make moves in Fordow, you know, we're willing to provide Israel with this weaponry. You

You know, it is interesting. And so that goes to your second question. Does Iran hold the United States responsible, even though the United States has publicly announced that had nothing to do with this? You know, I don't think that Iran believes that, you know, the U.S. has obviously supplied all of Iran's, Israel's weaponry. But again, the reality is that

Iran has a very weak hand. We've evacuated a lot of our personnel from the most vulnerable embassies in places like Baghdad. And I think one distinction between this Trump administration and the Biden administration was that the Biden administration's instincts were always to de-escalate, de-conflict with Iran. Trump, on one hand, he wants to do deals

but he's shown himself also willing to take audacious military action like the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. So I think that the Iranians are much more on their heels with the Trump administration in contrast to the Biden administration. Karim, thank you for your analysis this morning. We really appreciate it at this point. Karim Sajafour, and we'll talk to you again soon. Thank you.

Next on Squawk Pod, Director of Foreign Policy Research at Brookings, Michael O'Hanlon says Iran will likely retaliate and we can't rule out the country's continuing nuclear program. You can build these sites sometimes and get away with it clandestinely. And I think Israel has to expect that that will be Iran's recourse. So it's going to be hard for us to get to a new nuclear deal. But I think that should be the priority. More on this story of the day right after this.

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Upfront payment of $45 for three-month plan equivalent to $15 per month required. New customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes if network's busy. Taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com. You're listening to Squawk Pod from CNBC. Here's Becky Quick. President Trump just posting, two months ago I gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to make a deal. They should have done it. Today is day 61. I told them what to do, but they just couldn't get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance.

20 minutes ago, a spokesman for the Israeli army said that airstrikes on Iran are continuing at this hour. NBC's Matt Bradley joins us right now from Tel Aviv. Matt, hello. What can you tell us at this point? Yeah, I mean, as you mentioned, this is continuing. We're continuing to get word that more and more of these targets are being hit by

uh... israeli air forces and we actually have been seeing on israeli state or excuse me israeli television images of what they're describing as a massage agents inside iran that we haven't been able to verify that necessarily ourselves but it is very interesting that it looks like this is a plan for several weeks uh... and this was an effort that has unfolded ever since about two or three a m this morning now iran has vowed to respond and they already have retaliated they fired about a hundred drones

at Israel, most of them swatted out of the sky by Israeli air defenses before they even reached Israeli airspace. So as you mentioned, we heard from Donald Trump. This really does look as though this might very much interfere with Donald Trump's plan to try to get to some sort of deal to curb Iran's nuclear program. There had been set to be the sixth round of negotiations coming up on Sunday in Oman.

Now, the Iranians have said they won't be sending a delegation on Sunday. So it looks as though Trump's effort to try to get this deal done, as he said in his Truth Social post this morning, has been scuttled by Israel's actions. Matt, we've heard some reports about drones that Israel has taken out, drones coming from Iran. What's the feeling there, where you are? And what's the sense of just how people are going about things? We know there's a state of emergency there.

Yeah, that's right. Earlier this morning, the Israeli government did tell people to stay by their safe rooms, which are in just about every Israeli home and in public places as well. I was walking around this morning on my way here, and, you know, it doesn't look like a regular Friday morning. Clearly, people had taken the message. They're not walking about

But it's very calm here. I did see some families out and about this morning, and the Israeli government just a couple of hours ago lifted their recommendation that people remain near those safe rooms. So it looks as though as far as the Israeli government is concerned, that for the public, most of the danger

is now over. But of course, Israeli airspace still closed as are airspaces throughout the region. Matt Bradley from NBC. Thank you, Matt. All right, joining us right now with reaction to Israel's airstrikes on Iran, Michael O'Hanlon, who is the director of foreign policy research at Brookings. He's also the Philip H. Knight chair in defense and strategy. And Mike, your thoughts on what we saw overnight? There was some indication that we could be seeing something happening in the Middle East, certainly, but maybe this was more than some had anticipated.

Hi, Becky. Well, it's striking news and obviously ongoing. Multiple days of additional attack expected. I'm intrigued as to what Israel thinks it can accomplish around the Fordow site. As you know, that's the deep underground nuclear enrichment facility that, as far as we know so far, has not yet been struck.

And without effective attacks against that, Israel may be really only accomplishing a delaying action here, especially given Iran's likely reaction, which would be to withdraw from any cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. And so I'll be intrigued. I was wondering if Israel had a special forces raid in mind for that site, if they had

had such a plan they presumably would have started with that not carried out later on so that's one big question i've got but i'm not surprised by the efficiency and the effectiveness of the attack so far again some of the sites and again some of the key leadership and you would expect that kind of excellence from the israeli armed forces we brought that question up several times today mike why

If you have the ability to do something with Fordow where most of those centrifuges are now centered for Iran, that's the one that's buried about half a mile underground, if you had the ability to do it, why not do it now?

Well, I'm not sure they do have the ability to do it. And I've heard some commentary on your show this morning that I'm not sure I fully agree with, not from you, but from other guests, about whether Israel really has this kind of bunker-busting capability. And many people were skeptical that Israel would carry out this attack more or less on its own or completely on its own, lacking such capabilities, as well as lacking the ability to sustain air operations over many hundreds of miles the way that the United States could.

Now, they've proven already they can do pretty well in the air, even so far from home. So I guess they solved that piece. But I don't know that they have the bunker busting capability to get down hundreds of meters into rock. And frankly, I'm not sure how well we would do with that mission. We would probably do pretty well. But the whole idea of Fordow was to be insulated against this kind of attack. And so I'm dubious that Israel is going to get it.

That leads to the questions of what the United States will do next. And President Trump has been fairly active on Truth Social this morning. One post that he said is that, you know, the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the world by far. Israel has a lot of it with much more to come. He's also said that this is what he warned Iran. He gave them 60 days. This is day 61 and this is what happens next.

How will Iran react to that, do you think?

Do they have a chance to get them back to the table to try and reach an agreement? Well, I hope so on the latter question, but it's going to be tough. I think Iran's reaction will be twofold. One, they will have to do something, at least in their own minds, they'll have to do something violent in reply. And we know they've tried multiple approaches and many of their options are not very good. But I still think they'll feel the need to do something. And it may look like some of their old fashioned anti-Syrianism,

civilian truck bombing kind of stuff. It may be an attempt to assassinate Israeli politicians around the world. I don't know. I think they'll feel like they need to do something. And I hope they won't, but I expect they will. Second, the question, the big question long term is what about their nuclear program going forward? Again, I'm dubious that

Israel is going to achieve a completely disarming strike. And even if Israel did, Iran would have the ability to start to rebuild its centrifuge capabilities in locations that perhaps we don't find out about. Bear in mind that it took some good luck and Iranian dissident groups for us to learn about the second nuclear site 20 years ago. So you can build these sites sometimes and get away with it clandestinely. And I think Israel has to expect that that will be Iran's recourse. So it's going to be hard for us.

to get to a new nuclear deal. But I think that should be the priority, as my colleague and friend Ken Pollock argued this morning in foreignaffairs.com.

I guess part of what they accomplished is taking out some of these nuclear scientists. I don't think I'd want to be an Iranian nuclear scientist, knowing that the Israelis and potentially others would be targeting you on some of these issues. The other part of the question, though, is when Iran retaliates, will it be only against Israel or will they try and retaliate against U.S. military assets? Will they try and retaliate against Iran?

Saudi Arabia or other nations that they think, even though they've condemned it, must have allowed them to fly over their airspace? - Yes, excellent question.

And I think that Iran, if I had to guess, which is always dangerous, predicting about the future is not the best thing to do on live television, but I don't think Iran will strike the United States with any vehemence. There's a chance they'll feel the need to do something symbolic, maybe not even risking loss of life, I don't know, against a facility or something, just to show their displeasure and their belief that we are Israel's best friend.

But I don't know that they really want to invite major American retaliation. So that would be my guess, but it's a close call in their mind, I would think. And then in terms of what they can really do against the Israelis, I don't know. They can certainly try harder than they have been to conduct assassinations or terrorist strikes around the world that would target Jewish facilities like in Argentina in the 1990s. Remember that?

case long ago, or some other location like that that's not as well protected as many sites would be inside of Israel, that's another option they've got. But I think they will feel the need to do something dramatic and violent and then think hard about the nuclear option going forward. Mike, thank you. Michael Hanlon.

You made it. That is today's Fuller Figured Squawk Pod on this Newsy Friday. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern. Follow Squawk Pod for the best of our show in a podcast that you can listen to anytime you want. Tell a friend to listen too. We'll meet you right back here on Monday. Have a good weekend. We are clear. Thanks, guys.

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