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cover of episode Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: Polls vs. Prediction Markets 11/07/24

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: Polls vs. Prediction Markets 11/07/24

2024/11/7
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Shayne Coplan
领导预测市场平台Polymarket，推动预测市场在选举预测中的应用。
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Tim Higgins
一名影响力大的科技和商业记者，特别关注科技行业与政治的交叉领域。
Topics
Shayne Coplan 认为 Polymarket 等预测市场在本次美国大选中比传统民调更准确地预测了特朗普的获胜。他强调 Polymarket 的赔率并非基于单边资金投入，而是反映了市场中买卖双方的博弈和价格发现机制。即使有大额资金注入，市场参与者也会对其进行解读和判断，最终由市场决定价格。Polymarket 的成功表明，多样化的市场参与者能够有效地汇总信息并预测结果，其准确性超过任何单个专家。 Tim Higgins 认为 Elon Musk 对特朗普的胜选起到了至关重要的作用，他激发了特朗普的支持者，尤其是年轻男性的投票热情，赋予了他们参与政治的目标和动力。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The episode discusses how prediction markets like Polymarket accurately predicted election results, often more accurately than traditional polls. It highlights the role of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and the rising popularity of prediction markets.
  • Polymarket and other prediction markets indicated a wider lead for Trump over Harris compared to polls.
  • Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, discusses the accuracy and reliability of prediction markets.
  • The episode touches on the influence of Elon Musk among young men and the uncalled House race.

Shownotes Transcript

In the week leading up to election day, presidential election contracts on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt all indicated Donald Trump had a wider lead ahead of Kamala Harris than traditional polls. In his first-ever TV interview, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan discusses his company’s role in elections and the rising popularity of prediction markets), which allow bettors to wager on election outcomes. The Wall Street Journal’s Tim Higgins highlights Elon Musk’s influence among young men, saying Musk gave them “purpose” in voting for Trump. Plus, the House race remains uncalled), smart ring maker Oura is out with a new report on election day stress levels, and Wall Street awaits the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut decision).

 

Shayne Coplan - 14:51

Tim Higgins - 32:15

 

In this episode: 

Shayne Coplan, @shayne_coplan)

Tim Higgins, @timkhiggins)

Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick)

Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk)

Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin)

Cameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY)