Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: Polls vs. Prediction Markets 11/07/24
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Bring in show music, please.

This is squad pod, and i'm cnbc producer Cameron costa on today's episode. How Better on prediction markets got election results right with Polly market founder shame coplin.

a diverse, a desperate group of market participants. Like you see, empire market is more accurate than any given expert.

He's only twenty six and he's at the forefront of the bedding market wave.

Good day to have someone from Polly .

market of t have done and who .

turned out the vote. Wall street journal columns tim higgins says ella musk played a big role.

The idea that everyone is giving Young men purpose by going about voting, that's pretty powerful.

Plus the fed speaks the baLance of power in congress is still undecided, and we're tracking our anxiety. This is the ora ring is watching.

This is your own place.

This is my son. Oh my gosh, what's the rest your life look like?

It's thursday, november seven, and square pot begins right now.

Stand back back and three, two, one killer.

Good morning, everybody, and welcome to school box right here on cnbc relived from the next act market site in times square. I back you quick along with joe corny and Andrew ross. Dw, sd, more than fifteen hundred points yesterday.

That was a day of more than three and a half percent. You had the sp. Up by two and a half percent.

And by the way, the biggest gains we've ever seen on a post election day, mazda was up by nearly three percent. If check out treasure yields yesterday, the yields were pretty sharply higher. What about the same levels this morning? The ten year is yielding four forty three, the two years at four twenty five. And then if you check out bitcoin yesterday, bitcoin was up by about ten percent this morning, back down only by about one and a quarter percent a week. Today you can see up by about eight and half percent, just above seven, five thousand dollars for big.

What we talked about go gold was weird yesterday.

Yes, I wasn't watching a close in til.

yes, I did eight box.

Gold nuts out there. We know who we're talking about me time.

Let's talk about the election to bryant. Update on where things stand on some of the races that were just recently called. We're going to start with the house where the bounce of power has not yet officially been decided. Our republicans of one, two hundred nine seats to one hundred and eighty seven for the democrats, two hundred eighteen seats are needed for control.

Republicans retook control of the senate and currently holds fifty two to a forty four lead there with key seats in pensylvania, in navaja and arizona not yet called now in michigan democrat least a slog, and defeated former republican congressman mike Rogers for the state's open sentenced. That comes A A trump factory there over Harris in the key battle ground states. So a lot of four, sixteen miles of those, I just how tight this this racist have actually been in that as we know, trump has also warned in the battleground states of north CarOlina orge a pencil vanion was ariz.

Zona in nevada have not yet been called. But as we said earlier, we are gone to be speaking with the the founder of Polly marketing first television and interview and boy, have the. Petty markets, if you will, over politics, not only become a big thing and a big business but have been loose us far more accurate.

But how many times if we said the polls have been wrong? How many yeah election the pole?

And it's funny because every couple of years, there's like a pole of the most. Last time looking at IT is really I tried to add up the the number of how seats that are already settle. There's a lot that are there's a reason that we don't know.

yes. So several of them in california.

you know, where IT .

longer because of local .

voting rules. My son knows counties now, and he's pretty excited about pencil ana for a end. Yeah, yeah. IT slowly eroding. But this, the apparently the count is the left there.

Someone is primarily republican, still does not mean you know that it's a done deal that but casey is almost an institution in in the senate and you know some people thought he when he finally left IT be from retirement IT would be an ousting which is weird for someone to be able to do that, especially like a hedge fun guy. Pretty impressive. Canada, no. IT.

Well lost in the primary.

Yes, no, you say has one guy? Yes, bridge water for a period time. But I would say is financial crisis. Forget David comic was deputy the other department with hang poles during the crisis and played instrumental role in keeping the whole international .

piece of IT together. You know, I mean, people how much they have, that's really all. So if you a bridge water were going pretty well, I would say, don't you think?

And you said quite the career about that.

Yes, you weren't trying to to no.

the army, the army saying and everything else is he would have been a much Better candidate than the other day a few years ago too but that I was the old when he was a loser. You're in Andrew. I don't know .

how closely you we're measuring this, but the smart device maker, ora, has a new report out on the psychophysical logical effects of the tension on election day. The companies are smart ing sensors. They measure heart rate and heart rate vote variability.

They have a huge number of people that they're monitoring. Between eleven and seven pm on election day, minutes of stress were up by two point three percent, and restored of time was down by ninety and a half percent. Then at night, as states began to be called, the company tracked an increase in heartbreak of three point seven percent versus comparable nights.

They do this for a lot of things. For baseball. There will be watching for some of the big football games. The election night, obviously measuring the collective inst of the nation, had into the election, and then .

through election night to.

well, some of the worst sleeve .

numbers ever, as people were report. I actually yesterday for me, and tuesday work, this actually quite a mate for me. This is good news.

They actually call that a Normal day, which is good. But, and that's but, you could have a restored of day, or you could have a Normal day. We could have a very stressed day. And and IT managed to claim I had some super high stress moments in certain hours. I'm looking between .

the hours of five and .

ninety of I. Actually, you you may find this very strange.

Yeah.

this is your own place. This is my own.

Oh my gosh. What's the rest your life look like?

If you look, if you look, if you, if you, if you watch my charts between six and nine, it's actually quite .

level about.

I about nine .

and nine thirty about, I didn't want to see any there or rings last couple of days. How about nine and nine thirty? A good between.

Yeah, i'm actually, yeah, well, you're among friends, that's for sure. Good, all good. But here you are.

Yeah, talk up. Morning jom O U R N I N G morning joam gratified that you're here with friends. I'm gratified. I'm gratified.

This is your, I worry the day.

Yeah.

what hell happens after that?

Black is busy, fruitful.

We actually here today on the quarter point. So we're going to get the counter point is that yeah.

yesterday the meeting began. Yeah today, post they moved to by one day do not do not be too .

close to the I just think now we're going to hear from president electric great, great move. Great move. Not got that. Definitely something that should be happening hundred percent, you real estate guy, because now IT excised that the benefits of crew, yet reticent to him, instead of that horrible political, politically motivated cut of fifty basis points.

Come on, you got with you got, got. You got, got. You know, I just wish a little simple L I ish. I wish I .

had a problem. I see, I don't think my basic thing is the day I can go back .

in the rest.

which makes IT very difficult to be an, and there are times we had definitely right, not a good thing. And that ends up turn at you in the bt big time. When you say zero for too long, things go where they shouldn't go and then end up haven't to clean up the mess later.

The CEO of Polly market, it's going to join us in a cnbc exclusive. Maybe he can tell us that is going to win the house definitively looks this point IT seems like might be a sweep for for the in Becky boy red outset i've ever seen you finally come in. The gripes with this is the time is .

the did you see a vca truck was wearing blue on tuesday?

Yesterday you were wearing black.

where I was wearing navy.

really dark.

Can I tell I picked my outfits out on sunday. Go where .

time I do what I try not to wear. I was looking for like, totally non descriptive. Like today, today i'm just.

I never were .

described as, you know you joe biden .

were red to the voting book.

He was so I think that mean, I don't think I don't think I was like down .

trump at a blue on monday night.

What happened to joo? Another drama him, which is ridiculous. And as we had to be.

Keys will be next .

coming up on squad pod. The mark that had our election results right prediction site polling market show Donald trump defeat in comparison before the election was called and by a wider margin than the polls forecasts, twenty six year old founder shin coplin says sari bolsters his users aren't voting with money. They're creating a market when you see the odds.

Employment market is not a function of how much money was put on either side. It's a function of market Price at that moment .

will be right back.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I, C, N, B C, Jessica adding to follow and listen to c nc business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back to spot if there's anything we learned about america's political process in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty and now the twenty four elections, it's that polling isn't all that accurate. So what was accurate in twenty twenty four election prediction markets like calcium predict IT and Polly market had a clear preference for a trump Victory despite both candidates appearing neck neck in the polls.

These markets allow matters to wager on the outcome of an election, in this particular case, the U. S. Presidential election.

There is a catch. Not all platforms allow U. S.

users. After a legal battle, cali offers markets on U. S.

Politics in the us. But Polly market does not allow U. S.

users. So the three point seven billion dollars flowing into its U. S. Presidential election contract, all foreign wages.

In fact, one french Better doubt the trump whale, that thirty million dollars on the trump Victory, using four separate accounts flooding that market, the company did its own investigation into the whales motivations that Polly market user will get a pay out in excess of forty million dollars. Players like Robin hood and interactive brokers are trying to get in on the prediction markets too. They both launched election contracts in the last month.

Polly markets founder is Young and popular, especially with elan mus, who's posted about IT on x more than once. The founder is also a big believer in his own business. He called IT a quote, global truth machine on x, the social media platform owned by you on mask. And here takes IT from here the big .

night for prediction markets and calling president trump to elect as the winner at the polls closed and in the week leading up to the election to the present for election contracts on polymer of calli interactive brokers, Robin all indicated the trump had a wider lead ahead of vice president harassed then the traditional polls in junius right now, an exclusive interview, the man who I think LED so much of this, a shame coplin.

He is the CEO of Polly market. And we were thrown to have your gear, your first interview on TV. Yeah.

thanks so much for how .

you've been in the headlines a lot before we've get into the whole thing. Have you slept what you do the night of the election?

IT was a late night. IT was a late night. And I want to propose, you know, thank you guys for having me my first T. V. interview.

And as much as we filed the negation with with polymer k being right and now in hindsight being actually the most accurate of all the election, uh, you guys were really the first people on TV to to start talking about point work and make IT a thing. And I know you guys get a lot of flat for that night. I just appreciate you guys like hopefully you guys feel feel the same sense of Victory that we do um we do.

But let me actually, did you ever worry that the that that the markets your market might not be right?

yeah. I think that, you know, I was we got bigger. We went from being like a small inside to sort of being a mainstream and almost household name fairly quickly. And I think that if you take us that back, a lot of the criticism and the the hip pieces were really like based on this interpretation of what polymer ka was. And I think that IT was difficult to take those at phase value when, you know, if anyone really looked into IT, IT was was clear that they .

were a lot of the critique was, you know our people trying to manipulate the market could want to big whales do something. There was obviously you did your own investigation into this friends.

apparently. Yes, yes. I the thing that people get wrong about poy market, the thing that I wish people would understand Better, and maybe now that they're more open mind, open minded to IT, is that if someone takes a really bad position on trump, for example, there's someone on the other side, there's a counterparty, it'll pear appear.

So there's also a really big position being taken on Harris. Um and because of that, you know when you see the odds on play market, it's not a function of how much money was put on either side, a function of market Price at that moment. And usually there's a point once and spread, that s the title spread for this market in the world. And I think when you think about like that, like some trade that someone made two weeks ago doesn't have bearing on what the market Price is right now. So um all I can say is I understand that you know it's it's a novel concept and people were skeptical when I came around, but hopefully now people be a lot more embracing .

of markets ed information. So even if my no one likes to lose money. So the french trader, I don't feel what I called him. He's not very well now his nawas elon.

I musky .

a guy who doesn't care about even one hundred million dollars. I would think most people, nobody likes to lose ten dollars, right? A prime example of that when I bet he kills me if I know that so no one is going to just throw money away unless they really can. Now it's even a person like that. Could they ve manipulate?

This is a great question. So you know if we run through that simulation, right, it's like unlike the stock market and we have all these stocks back here are um the same and you guys not Better. Anyone is like the market can stay irrational longer.

The you can stay solvent because you have leverage and and there's all different tips, things that could happen with polling market. The outcome of the market is going to is going to happen regardless and there's no leverage. And you can very clearly understand the true value of a share and outcome share by just understanding and trying to design .

what the probability .

is of that outcome. Well, to answer your point, so if someone is coming in and basically is ready to lose money, what that is basically is they're willing to buy over Price shares. And I think, you know we know this, but there's a lot of use me smart money on the site or paying attention to IT people, you know they're really smart all around the world.

And if there's a if there's uninformed flow, if there's pricing sensor of flow, people going to take that rest. Granted, it's up to the market to go and interpret a lot of flood, like if there's a large influx apply, whether it's informing or uninformed flow. But I do think that, that's just a function of the markets working.

And as we saw this time around, right, like this was someone with an influence bank crown. And I didn't push the market up that much. And as I turned out, he had done a lot of research and had non consensus .

information that ended up being accurate. Nobody should .

have looked, I had all say.

champions, but as IT would flush, IT literally tense of a point. And I feel like, you know what is. But I will tell you one more thing. And that happened, which IT gave me just a lot of power on election night.

I was watching I was either scene or was a lot but I was watching IT ah and they were micro analyzing the remaining county left in georgia and polling market was at eighty nine percent for trump in and I watch that they spent twenty minutes pretending that and she's doing what he looks like it's possible that is gna pick them up pear and it's like, it's over. I wanted I was screaming T. V. It's over. It's no way in hell that he that is gonna happen in georgia a .

for her yes, on the money look like, okay, there's there's the forecasts .

I was called, I called. I love IT.

There's the forecasts weeks before. But the thing that is unenviable was the night of the election, poy market was the first destination to to basically convey that, uh, trumped one. And he was he was a good two, three hours ahead of media, so much so that people who are watching, like the media know, hours later we're like, oh, well, you know, pym has commonly so low.

We were in the office and we were looking at the odds and on poyet and looked like a done deal. And and if you were just watching TV, you would think it's not. But and I think this is a complete shift to the overton window. This is a IT is an inflection point in news, in politics .

where work. But from the from the J. D. V. Debate on yep, is when I started and you could see IT.

you could see IT on power and never wap, a black shire of DJ. T as you me, this is but it's also market base. You is people placing money and having .

to think a large block at D J, T can move IT. But I think that's .

what we had going to been talking about two and remade the point earlier that it's only going to be a smart as the wisdom of the crowds and people who are betting, whether it's a smart money, whether it's not if you have people who are and I guess your point is, is they're not betting what they think or what they got or what they want. These are people who are very highly informed to are making .

these bets yeah I mean, you know that doesn't even be all highly. And for people, there can be people who know nothing.

And that just goes in ads to the liquidity, the market, right? What the important thing is that as the saying of free markets, free markets goes a not to the late great jaya and Robin hanson and I got to a give credit to the real thought thought leaders and pioneering of these ideas um A A diverse a desperate group of market participants. Like you see, eye market is more accurate than any given expert.

Let me ask you about the polls, elon mos supposed that you probably saw this weeks before the election that he said Polly market was, quote, more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line. What do you actually think of the polls? Because one of the things is the polls to sun degree, I have to imagine, are the basis maybe not maybe i'm totally wrong on this, but as the polls moved around a little bit, Polly, mark moved around a little bit.

It's one day a point yeah, it's one data point. I think going .

with people in amErica and you.

I apologized to the pollsters. I hope to put any other matter business, but the thing about the polls is that what people really want to know is what's likely to happen. And people look at the polls and they see they see polls that tell you one thing and post to tell you the other thing.

And people gravitate to the pollsters that are funded you by people that share their political belief and then immediately becomes useless. Now what's cool about poy market is that the people who are mark participants are going and looking at the polls, and they're filtering through what actually matters signal from the noise they're pricing in whatever information coming out through poles and through other things that matter. To the point where, like you guys have been saying, all you really have to do is look.

a palmer speak to this dynamic though you're based in SOHO.

new york.

The people who technically allowed to bit and use poyet market are not allowed to be in this country, right? And so what does that say .

about what they know exactly? That's A A function of us starting as we saw on the twitter, like just starting as A A really small startup with basically no money and have to go to figure out and tried to build the product the right way. I want to give a lot of credit to the people who have bought the battle to to go in and legalized political prediction markets in in america.

You know in some of the other things yeah absolutely. And you I think that, that is awesome for all the players spend of the use market. It's awesome for us is the largest love fair. Yesterday there was a report we have eighty five, eighty, eighty four percent global market share, which really exciting. And you know now we're in the position to be able to go and be aggressive around expansion.

How important is that you to be in the U. S.

Market part of the plan. But to go back to what you said, you know the idea is if you can go in and build a free market where people are trading outcome shares that that pay out one dollar effectively when used dc per in a per share, what what your modeling is the likelihood of that happening.

And what we want to do is build a free market to the best variability um you know within within the bounds that we had to so that you could go and anyone could go to see the odds of these things. And it's humbling. I mean, I got calls from mario go.

No, a lot of these people that well, really like looked like we were talking pym k was being shouted while we were there. This is how everyone in there started celebrating. They were looking at playing market, which is is surreal.

It's surreal. But you I think it's what this is. This is a case study, right? And um if if this is sort of where IT ends, I don't think that we've we've scratch the service of any of this .

becomes self filling properly because the people who are about betting on elections are things like that. Think that there's a psychological impact that you can have on actually changing the outcome and that the people who are betting do you have an impact. And I remember you in the last couple of days when you, some of the pollsters are saying more women were coming out to vote and all the dam. One of the other points that some people made, I know if this was true, was that actually most of the people who are betting on places like poly market and others happening, me men. So maybe he was underreport ending the way women would think about these things.

So I think that I think a lot of that stems from the fundamental of understanding that it's people voting with money rather than IT being a market and you looking at market Price. And ultimately, the best thing that we have to go in and design likelihood is a despite group of mark participants trading and looking at market Price. And and that's what we've done.

And you know I think that power markets in the mainstream now, right, and we're going to continue to push for we're continue make IT simply, we're continue to make IT more accessible. We're continue engage and we will get to a point where there is a more diverse group of market persons. But for the time being, we just got to be lucky that climate exists and we don't .

have to just what do you want to bet on? What do you think should be allowed to bet on other .

things you think that shouldn't be? Yeah I mean, look, you know I think that the premise of plimmer ers, i'm not that know all oracle. I don't know everything about politics, don't know everything about what people want. We believe in markets, and what we're really excited about is letting people ask their own questions.

I think that, that is the what's the crazy thing people been a bet on thus far.

I mean, you have you got to go through the the market history, you know, not not not to go so so nearby. But I think that the moment where polymer became something that was greater than that, I had not that I dreamed of because this is what I dreamed of, but had taken off on its own, was when we called by and dropping out.

I think that was a big moment where people had said to me, really, really trust where the people that said to me, you know, I work at either is going to become the most important website in the world or it's going to be a joke and a life stock depending on on what happens to buy and end. When we were the the sole place to call him, call him dropping out. I could have told you by the .

dropping out two years ago.

Well, you know, and if if I am in an outsider, I would have to go and say you this. Any more .

person told .

at the same time, though, if you were watching by impress.

shame very quickly, you are twenty six. What did you study? How did you build this or so Young?

Thank so much. And I feel all, it's funny. I started pying work on us twenty one.

I really think that I was just A A very curious and very nerdy teenager. I read a lot. I we have .

a higher reference. Did you study economics? You study math? what?

I studied a lot of things, but on the internet, but my parents, teacher, ecologists uh so I guess I have the learning gene. Um I am excited that I always kind of felt that I was I was running behind. I been into this stuff just markets in general, since I was fourteen.

I I went to high school a few blocks from here. And you know i'm just i'm gratefully build something that you know a few weeks ago I was and you know you guys, we we've been talking and I haven't really done any press and I really do believe in letting the work speak for itself. And there's a lot of hit piece of a lot of his interpretations. And now i'm really proud to say that you know all the misunderstandings like the creamer s was into the top and and we can really see the value.

And we were talking again about how markets they're almost secret. They're not only right about this and not only right about predictions are right about how to allocate capital, right, right about right there's right about supplying demand and how you know how much you there are almost there is close to something that absolute and what they can tell you anything in the world. And we still to arn, right, to bring him back somehow. Hundred smart people in wilton. You're going to be Better than the markets of doing things which will never happen.

There you go in. And that even ties back a few targets, which is something super exciting, where you can use markets to aid and making decisions. But to turn to back a ring back to day one and the mission was to harness the power free markets to denise fy, the real world of advance that matter most. And I like to think we're delivering .

on a mission and come on back hope. It's much the first of many, and we really appreciated .

in the graduate. And I love.

we gave me a hug.

yeah. Yes, you deserve IT, deserve IT.

That was really, I hope you're always nice .

and you .

are in natural, by the way. K, K.

this is your first television. Thanks so much. I woke up as like, i'm going .

to fall asleep on set. But no, you'd great.

We were face time in .

last week.

so I never .

incredible my not going in my last time of TV my first time.

always my role leave yet next on spot elan musk, election investment pays off the wall street journal tim higgins joins us I was .

on on the campaign or seeing Young men coming out telling me that they were just thrill to see this guy who they consider a hero.

and the what if of the wild last few months of campaign twenty twenty four.

Because what you needed to say was, you know what, I learned a lot. There are things we didn't do, right. And by the way, I know where the bodies are buried and I know how to fix that. And for some ways, that was never said .

we'll be right back.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every 对 markets， money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc Jessica, adding to follow and listen to C, N, B, C business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

This is square pot .

up an ander q you're watching .

squad box on cbc. m. Andrew scan, along with yukon and Becky ick got a lock on on this morning.

one of president electron d, trump strongest supporters, entrepreneur elon musk, says he's just getting started with his political ventures, journeys to discuss that the government efficiency commission and more.

Is tim higgins the wall street a journal business? Coldness in a cnbc contributor? Vance was a big deal, tim, but if I if seriously, you had a point, or maybe one thing, a total game changer for the election of Donald trump this time.

I think elan mask a lot to do with IT, just in a lot of different ways. Almost as much as superior would ahead if if that had been in a vice presidential pick for, I don't go to change things, but I think I would have made a lock closer. Well know.

it's interesting. I spent a lot of time in pencil lvi ia following elon around as he was campaigning like a can. And I was there on polling day and and asking people as I came out of the ballot box about their kind of opinions.

And elan was definitely injecting a lot of excitement into people are for this campaign. They might have already been in trust supporters, but this just kind of took them to another level that we're really talking about, the idea that U. M. Could be involved in the trump administration got people kind of activating at the kind of the notion of him getting in there and just kind of cutting government, cutting spending like he did IT twitter turn acx.

And I just think that he is you perceived to be I don't even know there's numbers that I don't know how his brain works. So I don't even know if I Q works for that, but he is a pretty smart. I doesn't make him a great judge of people necessary or a great judge of character. But I certainly would think that an endorsement there spoke to a lot of people, obviously more than i'm thinking to some other billion years that um where their endorsed party didn't matter quite as much, especially when you know the perception of how smart they are. Well, yes.

I think you're talking about know a segment of people that are he really spoke to that was very important was Young men. I time and time again, I was on on the camp paint rol seeing Young men coming out telling me that they were just thrill to see this guy who they consider a hero, who they drew inspiration, a one stop in one of the filly suburbs.

I just talking to some Young guy, as one guy hadn't been employed since the covet pandemic, talking about how he just thought you want speak. And he was just inspired, feeling like maybe he had some purpose in his life that he go pursue. And the idea that iron was giving Young men purpose by going on voting, that's pretty powerful.

yes. Um you would you would have to you would have to think so. Okay, where I going from here? OK, I know I am going.

I was already seeing bumper stickers that said, um, I like my car. I like my tesla. Elan, shut up. So I was already seeing those.

Is this gonna hurt any of his businesses at this point? I mean, you look at the I don't know what you call the recrimination, everything that's happening to to to the losing side at this point, I don't know what is how many there's like seven stages aren't. I don't know where we are right now where in one of the early ones, it's not really denial, certainly not acceptance.

He had, but were one of them is IT onna get work? There be people who will never buy a tesla. Now that would formally have wanted him to help the climate in biotech. La.

yeah, absolutely. People i've heard from absolutely saying that, uh, yes, he very much appealed to certain people. Republicans very excited. But these necessarily these aren't necessarily E, V buyers.

And we have seen in the consumer data this year A A pullback among democrats who say that they wouldn't consider a test luck. Democrats, uh, as you know, are big bar electric vehicles and had been big supporters of tesla h in the past. So this is a risk kind of going forward if this is seen as a political brand that could be a chAllenge. Is what's .

going to have IT a truth social. That's the hardest thing that to really understand of this weird you know trumps on a acts now and you know elon is your tached IT the hip IT just seems like IT would benefit x at this point. And we never have understood why it's almost a mean stock. But how does that work itself out, I think was .

one of the dramas to play output one I think one of the winners here um in the election season has been x uh maybe not uh having the same kind of user base that at once had. But engagement is up according to third party data and IT clearly is part of the conversation. Elon might have a lost money on the acquisition. IT might not be as valuable at once was but the overall value to his a Operations, his personal brand, clearly, uh, it's a huge winner for him.

IT would have been difficult if there was no x if you had during this election, had had to depend on legacy media, I guess maybe word legacy media. I probably say these things, but thank god for x well.

you know, it's interesting, all that money that he poured in and that's important, right? But a lot of billionaire or money in the election IT was his ability to kind of command the the media narrative using x at his celebrity. These things probably kind of hindsight, were huge advantages, more important than the money he put into the into the race.

right? I guess as soon I said that, do you either time? Sorry about the wall.

Streator, oh, we need legacy media. I love a legacy media. I do.

I love IT fix. You don't forget to go will .

fix IT fix IT .

super may have performed IT Better, and he might have. But if he didn't win, he would be again. I think.

I think the hope campaign different. I really, I think the whole camp. Gn, I said that read at the very beginning, I thought he's an assessing, he's smart ed.

He's happening. He got an incredible future in the guy SHE picked. That was her first decision that was crazy pick in the .

history of the vice present. I don't .

think.

I think the recriminations have to start with biden. I don't with joe and and joe and and polo, oh god, that t is the party out.

Ters were controlling everything, but I wanted.

I understand that what they wanted.

don't name here anybody points to stay .

president campaign.

That was fundamental the problem. And then, and and then and then Harris, unfortunately for her, for her, her cause was not the .

ideal of the first decision.

And I don't think the first.

I mean, you saw a pero, you've seen him speak, you've seen everything in the very first decision was the guy who the guy who who .

think you can run a pick set states went more republican .

than they had a different. So I think that turn started with jd vanes debate. I think that's when the turn that's when I started watching Polly market and the start.

But I the real issue was that there was almost a honeymoon period that was inevitably going to end. I think IT just happened to end around the time of that debate. I don't think the debate itself was IT. And I think you actually had to start as .

my real hard question. You saw someone make IT a Better case for election trumps trump.

T made himself, I think once started having to ask real hard questions, and some of the answers were not the answers that separated her from from by. And that when the much wider .

bridge in the party between what they want to do, and they are trying to please point people .

are grasping straws for anybody other than that we had very dear come in and says he exhibited all these leadership by being able to accept the appointment of of their candidate. Look, I think the second sheet.

when he was asked, what are you going to do differently from biden? And SHE said it's the same.

Basically that was tough the end.

because what you needed to say, IT, was, you know what? I learned a lot. I there are things we didn't do, right? And by the way, I know where the bodies are buried and I know how to fix IT. And for some reason.

that was never said he was part .

of ministration. Every day we were talking about the economies the greatest. And so why rentier yourself from from the record of of the guy that that you were the vice president .

because you could on the new on spaces say there's certain things that we did write, certain things really wrong, the economy piece wrong.

SHE was in a charge of IT that's going to now we know that in .

part for games are people breaking down for went wrong. Sam, thanks. Brings so low, the rings so low and .

postwar down. He's like a guy in the height of.

uh, right now he's like top .

gun a mig just slew buying IT is is your post in shade like kind of elector when he was that nurses that up I mention .

handful lector i'm .

fed decision day this is great actually engaged luck in that you .

are ready .

married by the way. I I was in restored and relaxed mode from most of the broadcast yeah and then just in the last three engaged, I wasn't engaged. What IT says is, is your boys stress levels aren't at their peak, but they are activated a bit.

We all need IT the .

rings I might say the same thing the entire yeah .

and then they can say when .

our levels dogs.

That's the podcast for today. Thank you for tuning in. As always, sbox is hosted by joe turnin becket quick and Andrew ross kan. Weekday mornings on C, N, B, C, starting at six A, M, and go on all the way until nine square pot gives you the best of our show. Top interviews, conversations, even jokes.

I just wish they had a little symbol. I just wish, I wish I had a pai .

get .

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We are clear. thanks. size.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc Jessica, adding to follow and listen to C, N, B, C. Business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.