The Future of Healthcare, Home Improvement, and Musk’s Government Role 11/15/24
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Today, on school pad, three big stories, president elect Donald trump has picked robber f. Kennedy, junior for secretary of health and human services. What does that mean for the future of health care policy? Former walGreens boogies executive john S. O. Shares his cern.

our industry is the envy of the world. And I think many of us in industry are concerned that what he doesn't understand, he might damage then .

home deeper CEO ted decor wison on the state of inflation and how the company and consumers are handling the pressure .

they want to take on projects. Still just a little bit uncertain with the overall economy.

plus archive's Cathy wood on her big bed on tesla and how elan musk new government role might make an impact.

I think he's going to do a lot to bring efficiency.

The government, i'm cnbc producers, actually see its friday, november fifteen th squared begins, or right now stand .

back by in three, two, one cute place.

Good morning, everybody, and welcome to school box right here on cnbc. We're alive from the national market site in times square. I'm back quick. Along with joker nn and and Andrew rosa .

and president electrum p is selected vaccine skeptic, among other things. I rod of Kennedy, junior, as a pick for secretary of health and human services in vaccine maker of stocks, pulled back little on that news. Uh, yesterday for a look at the potential broad impact on health care and former let's bring in john school, former president of wall Greens boots alliance of U.

S. Health care and now a senior adviser they're senior advisor. What what do you think and and do we know what the implications of this pic would be? We can't know for sure. We don't know if some of these views have evolved, but if you take some of these prior statements at face value, john, a lot of IT is populist um sort of bunk that the bunk has been debunk uh really and I don't know if he has different viewpoints now, but a lot of IT would be, I think, dangerous and probably counterproductive to a healthier country.

I think so that um in many of us in industry are really concerned that he represents a clear and present danger to one of the greatest industries of the world. You know over four million years of human evolution, we extended lifespan by about seven years in the last hundred and twenty. We've more than double to global lifespan to seventy three years old based on vaccines and public health and biosphere maceo ticals. And I think we our industry is the envy of the world. And I think many of us in industry are concerned that um what he doesn't understand he .

might damage even i've made this point for years. Okay, I get IT food editors, it's not natural. I mean, there was a time when we didn't have at IT is and I would need something that that was sitting there for after a day um that there's reasons for pastorius ation.

There's reasons for for a lot of different um preserve tips that that are put in through. And I think about, uh, as you said, bio pharmaceuticals and the amount of genetic engineering that goes in the most medicines now and cancer and monoclonal, all the progress we've made there to just um you know arbitrarily say anything's genetically modified as bad. The next time you you need some type of of treatment for some horrific disease you have don't use anything that's been developed through science and that that makes no sense.

Now on the other hand, da will say that in this country we have a lifetime style problem, but definitely with food, and the amount of food and the type of food that people lead, leading to these obesity rates and rates for diabetes and anything related to to what happens when you when you are obese or or mir obese. So I mean, I get IT, I get that we need to be a healthier country. But would be nice if you had some facts on your side, if you are actually, you know, dictating what people need to do .

will join your point. He's raised good questions about the the epidemic of obesity and chronic disease in the food industry, but the food industry is the ag department and he raised good questions about and the reasonable questions about environmental pollutants. And and that's that's the epa we're talking about H S eighty thousand employees at two trillion dollar budget programs that affect one hundred and seventy million people in medicare and medicaid and who drugs and public health and vaccines that affect everyone uh you know this is a completely different Mandate instead of respons ibi t ie s and I think it's reasonable to ask whether he's qualified. Has the management chops and understands medicine and science enough to to really lead again A A partner to industry that that that that that is the best track record at delivering solutions over the last hundred years.

IT is probably using a pretty good idea for the head of something like kh just to have that type of background.

But even a person that you know is trained does rely on all of the people beneath him that that you know for a lot of the the actual a policies like at what medicare covers, for example, with new drugs or or or whatever, is IT possible that he could have good people underneath them and just sort of make overall a decisions that that might not be as a the illiterate ous everything or or do you think he would distrust any of the experts beneath him? I mean, there's some experts that I think faulty shoud been distressed to beyond that, my own personal opinion. But on the other hand, you do need to trust someone when you do in these things.

But I think he's got he is probably going to have a two part chAllenge. I don't think he's really got up any experience that I know of either either science or medicine because these are very technical areas. And there, people spend their entire careers developing that level of expertise.

And there's a range of pins in science and medicine. But but generally, you look for people with some qualifications there. Um and it's not that his some of his questions aren't reasonable.

The real question is whether he's qualified to even understand lead. And this is eleven agencies. This is the N I H, which is the foundation of venture capital fund for bio pharmacy tics s. That's really to help transform, help give us put us in a position to lead in bio pharmacy ticals. And I think it's reasonable to ask whether we should probably require that someone who has some background and medicine and science to lead these great organizations.

Yeah I mean, IT is you do want to I think president electric is a disruption is a big thing for him and draining the swamp, whatever you want to talk about. But then again, as you point out there, you don't want to throw out a sir of the baby with the best while and it's probably more good that comes from uh, a lot of these things and and and it's important an air could affect you know millions of people.

But take, for example, vaccines, and I have this this snow. If certain countries over europe that don't use mercury in vaccines, I still have higher autism rates. You can probably say that he had nothing to do with the mercury that was in that.

And yet he will still hold on to that that notion in kind of a mythical kind of a way. But then again, is there, anyway, john, that you think that the immune responses to some of these things could result in things that we have no idea about? Or or do you think we ever pretty firm grasp these things?

Again, i'm neither a doctor nor a PHD in science, but you point out a really good, in fact, that he's been today. He appears to continue to spread the concern about mercury vaccines that honestly have not been in our vaccines since the early two thousands.

And that that sort of of going from being a critic to skeptics soling distrust, I think, is a real concern for those of us in the health care industry who rely on the public to partner with us to get IT to use these novel vaccines and pharmacy ticals. You know, in my lifetime we've seen this process of in research and vaccines and bio pharmacy s transform conditions like cancer, like lane cancer, which used to be a terminal disease in the something that's manageable. My sister died of the stick fibrosis. Now my relativistic fibrosis can have A A Normal life, and that's because of the partnership between our bio pharma udal industry and the federal government. I'm really concerned that a the wrong leader might might sort of mess that up.

Even for me some of his past use on on on environmental issues, I am almost glad he wouldn't be put in charge of of with some of the things i've seen that he's claimed about about that. I'm not trying to to want to meet the E P. A.

either. So I don't know. Thanks, john, and appreciate what you try about. It's important. It's important to think about these things, I think.

Thank you. Joe keys will .

be .

next next on squared home debo CEO ted decor reveals how the company is navigating economic uncertainty and Price pressures with interest rates in flux. He explains how they're managing through at all.

We think with our merchants and our supplier partners in particular, were the scale player that any terf that would happen would be broadly dispersed across the industry. And i'd bet on our team to be able to manage do that the best.

Experience power of C N B C prose best deal of the year track your portfolio from every angle on one optimise platform the power of N B C pro and C N B C that comes lash pro like friday terms and restrictions apply.

This is squared d the home deeper is .

honoring one of its founders. Kindly go here in new york city today and why you learn go on health is going to be cutting ribon cutting ceremony. The home deepo emergency department in cobh, ill.

The home deepo foundation issuing a ten million dollar grant to support the sites ambulatory care center in kz onor. Earlier this week, the home deepa reported third quarter earnings and revenue above street expectations and raised its full year outlook. Stock is done well.

For more on all of this, we want to welcome home depot chair and CEO ted decor. He joins us exclusively and on set for the first time. And ted welcome. It's really great to have you.

Thanks for having us.

We're going to talk about what's happening with the link goes into and just a little bit. But why don't we start with the numbers from earlier this week? You guys had strong numbers. You raise ed guidance, but that raised guidance was based on the idea of what you already see wasn't about the outlook. So why don't you tell us what you've seen since that, that last core are closed?

Well, know, as we said, we we raised our outlook to minus two and a half percent for the year, and that was really based on just phenomenal october weather, people able engaged longer and then the hurricanes.

We're still we're still seeing .

pressure on the larger remodel project. So when we we Carried through those Better results in some expectation on hurricane in dq four. But fundamentally, we're still looking for that turn in removable to really drive the bigger project demand in the business.

Have you've been surprised that mortgage rates have actually climbed since the fence started cutting interest?

IT was a surprise. I me we're all we're all looking for housing to unlock in. One of the key reasons people aren't moving is because of those high Morgan rates and locked in to the lower rates.

Our housing turn over now at a forty year low at just on three percent of all us homes turning over. So we were hopeful with the rates coming that the morning rates would would come down, that in fact, they've gone up by the same amount the short term rates have come down. So this will all come to pass and markets forget to equal liberum. But we save some work to do on those Morgan rates.

We have watched the stock market really climb m pretty significantly post election. A lot of investor confidence that you see kind of playing out. And the question we've been trying to figure out is, is that Carrying over into consumer confidence and form in the form of spending, have you seen that in?

Well, we have a little different situation. I mean, we have, first of all, extraordinary ly strong consumer, our consumers gainfully employed in higher wages, equity baLances and then the highest store of value for our customers. Their home.

Eighty percent of our customers owned their home, and they've seen tremendous appreciation in their homes since twenty nine, as much as fifty percent increase in home values. So so our customer has a store of value. They're staying in that home.

Its aging and they anna, take on they tell us they want to take on projects, but they're still just a little bit uncertain with the overall economy. It's going to happen with tax rates, what's going to happen with inflation and ultimately interest strates. But there's building up a pent up demand, if you will, for these larger .

remodel project research and inflation scare you more. Would you like great just to be cut for housing? Or you still worry about inflation not being totally talk and you should know probably well.

I think again IT what what translates into a mortgage rate would be the thing that we're most interested in or hillock rate. So um there's eleven trillion dollars of capable equity in us housing. The store of value of the entire us.

Housing market is over forty five trillion, lars, eleven trillion of that is available for withdraws to fund largely model projects. We used to see something like eighty or even a hundred billion dollars a quarter of hillock withdrawal, a lot of that going into home. And provin projects that sound like twenty billion .

with the number and all the other stuff that you I mean, you must be one of the largest. And you know about the Prices before anybody .

gene back in the bottle.

Yeah can we relax?

Yeah I think on goods and what working in our business and pressure from our supplier partners, we are well past we've digested that rapid increase in Prices.

So you lower you're ready already.

Does the threat of of terabits change that picture? How much of the goods that you're bringing and are .

coming from overseas that could so word source over half of our product is source in north america, but we certainly get a good bid from asia in china in particular. We've been through this before with the tariff that were imposed in, in twenty teen, twenty five percent troops in a good, good percentage of our goods. And we work through that.

We work with our supplier partners, we work with our supply chains, trying to make sure we can still bring the best value on shell fa are customers. Our suppliers have done a meaningful job of diversifying out of china in the last four, five years, but there is still a significant base of manufacturing of art type product in china. Too early to tell what what will happen there, but we think with our merchants and our supplier partners in particular, we're the scale player.

The any terrible that would happen would be broadly dispersed across the industry, and i'd bet on our team to be able to manage to do that the best. The thing that we're much more interested in this corporate tax rates, home deep poo is one of the absolute largest nominal terms, highest pair of corporate taxes some quarters. In fact, we are the single highest payer of taxes in the united states. So keeping that rate down at twenty one percent or even some talk of that rate going lower is terrific for our business because we use that, that windfall, if you will, back in seventeen of lower corporates to reinvest in the business. We're building new stores again, were the only player in our industry and really big box in the .

united states of any nature .

who were a good rate. I mean, I was zero would be a good zero. But no, no. But when you think about this this rationally and fairly, what you think is the right?

Yes, I mean, stability probably matters as much as anything. And if we would just have stability with the rates for that today, that would be fine. You know, lower would be fine as well. Every investment we make, we measure on an after tax cash flow return on the capital deployed. So lower rates, you know, you can fund more project.

How much of the tax is shifting? I mean, obviously, bly shifted in seventeen for you sums to you your long term planning when you guys sit around and say, okay, what's the plan for twenty five, twenty six, twenty seven and twenty eight, when does that meeting happen for you where you say, okay, with different tax rates now? And then the other question is, how much of that rate do you say, okay, we're going to that's going to go to the bottom and that part were going to invest and that part like when does that happen for you?

But we always scenario play different rates for sure. But but we don't look at our investments. Taxes don't determine our investment profile. We're always looking at how we can improve the business, how we can the business and and make the the required investment. So I won't say taxes influence that the bulk of our investment to decisions, but certainly on the margin, if you're looking at at a particular investment of, say, a single store and you're very close to a hurdle rate of that, that single storm making sense, a tax rate could come in to that picture for sure.

Hey, that I would assume that you guys are planning as if tabs are going to come in. We've heard reports of other people bringing and as many things as they can do the united states ahead of january. Are you doing that?

We're not really doing that. We're so far ahead in our cycles said like all the holiday products here, the stores are sad. Our gift centers are SAT that we just signed off yesterday on our twenty, twenty six patio program. So were so far ahead, we're not we're not going to jump through hoops on a on a short term. You know cargo.

are you doing longer term planning for what you could do absolutely in.

in working scenario planning with our supplier partners? Again, we've seen a good bit of diversification we've seen about of the sourcing that has moved out of china in the last again, five, six, seven years. We see about a third has gone to other countries in southeast stage, a third has gone into mexico and the third is has come back into the united states even and sells.

Um we should bring up um the passing this past week someone who was friend of the show but obviously one of your founder, someone who was very, very important burning markets.

Yes, bernie Marcus funeral was was last week and what what is an absolute giant of a man um what what he did for for home deepo the stated georgia in in the country in the world in fact um in total is just a remarkable life or forever in debt to berney he left us with really what is the core backbone of our company. That's our culture and our values and those this will live on forever and we're just incredibly grateful to have had the time with him but IT was IT was a very emotional week for the honey boo family last week.

Thank you for asking. You had a very appropriate sent off for him too.

I think, well, know we're orange blooded, should maybe warned my orange j print today. But one of the most remarkable things, last week we had hundreds of ten year associate in atlanta, line the the road into the temple, and then later into the cemetery, to the grave site. IT was just such an outpouring of love for truly one of the the great americans of all time.

And you are here honoring another one of your founders.

Skinless go, yes, another friend of the show were just blessed them in each of Arthur blank in berny markets. And can line go have given back so much to the community. Artha blank, the new children's hospital in atlantic, just open a few weeks ago.

This is a brand new, the spoke arthralgia ind children's s hospital that opened in september. And you all new york know how much can does with N Y U. Land go in were ribbon cutting later this morning, a new ambulatory aries center in rockland. So can we'll be there in in some of the the home deep protection will be there .

to support them. Please give him our best. Glad to hear. So on the lighter side of things, we've watched scally the skeleton that took over, not just for halloween at this point. I see some of them still around with sa claus hats on these. These giant skeleton that some people keep out year around at this point, yes, decorate them for the coming holidays.

I I think we have much more marketing benefit. I was skeleton and actual sales benefit. But one of the the funny stories i've heard about is there is customer central letter that his H O A is always ask you to take him down because you can only have the scale up for any given season decorations for so many days of any given holiday.

So he just roles through. Well, he'll put up, he'll put red on him for valentine's day. I'll put Green on him for same.

Patrick stays. So he's like i'm in compliance to H. O, A, but he stays up.

That's the way to go with that. You you how big of a decorating season is, is the holiday season. I know you got got sana .

characters not is meaningful for home beef. Our Christmas, if you will, is in the spring. But our merchant team has built a tremendous decorate polity business in halloween, but then also for the Christmas season, with trees in lights and animated characters. We have great programs with with disney characters and our own sort of a spoke and internal .

private branded. How long have you ve been? Almost twenty five. Okay here because there was a time when speaking of can he's is very shy and talk about but the socks almost at an all time high and its been one of the greatest success stories I mean I can't believe sam well another amazing person in his lifetime he's he built one and the same goes for homelessness er but there was a period where keno really angry at some of the managed men. I am like to mention who IT was at the time, but home people had lost its way to. You historically know what happened in that, the rough spot and how to avoid IT what happening you remember the period i'm talking about.

can would tell you he never has sold a share. So he he's held that equity. He is the biggest supporter of of ours. I mean.

you remember what i'm talking about with that period supply company that didn't work out. There were other, I think, even some of the employees that the same home, deeper spirit wasn't there or something. How did how did the company loses way and how do you prevent that?

The key for us and what we keep front and center truly are the values of the company. We have two symbols on our April. We have a values wheel, things like giving back and doing the right thing and respect for all people.

And then our leadership principles are inverted. Pym ID, where you think of an organization where the leaders are at the top and the the troops, if you will, around the bottom, the founders inverted that, and the leadership teams is on the bottom. And our responsibility iie s to support our associate, our front line associates, as long as we remember that and never forget that. And every time I talk to him, that's how we ends the conversation. He says, ted, don't forget about the.

remember, you remember? Yes, what happened? What was the?

How it's turned around this?

I know what he is now, Frank. Can k.

almost a savior? Wonderful, wonderful guy. G is, well, just a leers OK.

We can. Thank you enough for coming in here. We do .

appreciate your time, and thank you, and thank you so much. And also to plug so store in sixty, first and first, we relocated our story deal in the bloom in the do a lot of how that new bathroom .

you put in go is that everything work.

And well to all the time.

I need one where I can step into IT. You know, have you seen this table? You open a door to step.

What's the other reloaded? Sixty first in first. And then our bricklin storm in hamilton avenue is reopened as well.

So my team likes that to a lot.

Yeah, your team, we don't even feel cultural laws, which is a lot easier to go into.

I wouldn't feel comfortable.

Well, I don't. okay. Thank you. Thank here. We'll see a sixty first stage and first .

next on squared tesla and bitcoin surge in the wake of present electro trump's election Victory. Arst Cathy wood joins us to share her outlook.

We are looking at bitcoin now being viewed as a new asset class. It's not just a global monetary system. It's a new asset class.

Experience track slash prolife friday terms and restrictions apply.

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sorkin up an .

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q our next guest in art invest CEO and C I O Kathy wood, her art innovation etf etf, I should says up about twelve percent since dell trumps election last week versus three percent for the S P. One hundred. But close to fifteen percent of the art etf is invested in tesla and some were concerned about elon mus.

Government job and whether can keep them from devoting enough time to his electric car company. I should also note, uh well, archive's is up uh today or I should take up recently 啊 on a longer term basis， there are a lot of losses and we can talk about that too. But Kathy is great to see you.

You've been a big ball uh of using uh you know almost on the beginning. So the question is when you see him in this role at moral logo and obviously his sock is up to so it's benefitted you but you say yourself that he's able to manage all these things. You what what what first comes to my when you see this.

well, what first comes to mind is I think he's going to do a lot to bring efficiency. The government. And what we're happy about is he's not gonna be a part of government.

Uh, he's very careful to say he'll be working from outside the government with vivek rm swami, which is also very good, especially from a health care point of view. A and they will use technology and other sensible measures, I think, to really rain in uh, government spending. Uh h so I think it's a good thing.

You know, we've faced this question about elon for many years as he started one company after another. Uh but the way we are looking at this is elan understands that we are at the threshold of a convergence among many technologies. Uh A I being at the center of IT and proprietary data, uh is beat winning. So he has more proprietary data from all of these companies than I think .

when you see the stock up as much as is just even since the election and his role in IT, what do you think what is what is the rational is what is the economic rational in your mind for that?

Well, there are two reasons. One in the earning in in a text less last earning calls, a call. We got more information about tesla's autonomous strategy.

I think a after the election, as we're thinking about what might happen here right now, autonomous regulations are state by state. Uh, there is a federal oversight mostly for safety. Uh, we would not be surprised if the regulations become national. And if that happens, then testers in a really good spot.

You think this is his influence over na.

no matter is safety. And I think if you look at if you look at to all of the accidents and IT is interesting that uh the media scrutinises every one of text less accidents out of the five thousand and forty thousand per per year uh where which involve the death um is. So if you look at notes um, conclusions after going in detail into these accidents， IT has included IT has concluded in the the tesla has the safest cars i'm trying .

to understand and this is the question, the stock is moved materially since the election. And as you know, I think I think this guy is genius in my last and I think testers and wonderful things. But i'm trying to understand the Price action.

I could see somebody make an argument that tariffs that will prevent other E, V makers from china to come in should be helpful. I can see an argument that if the I ra goes away and certain subsidies go away to afford and A G M, given where tesla is in the market place, that should be a benefit. I could see a though i'll be very strict with you.

I don't like the idea of him having influence over liza per say because I think that it's very difficult to have somebody who's in a business influencing how the regulation of that business works. Uh but maybe niza opens things up and therefore he has a great opportunity uh to move uh autopilot and everything ahead uh, faster the questions, those things and maybe others. Does that account for a thirty percent move in your mind? Thirty, thirty plus percent move?

yes. Well, IT had been very depressed before that. As you know, we put our research out there.

We have our team to shangani and chorus uh and our Price target is uh twenty six hundred dollars in five years. That research is out there. You can find that you can look at the model change anything you want.

Uh so a autonomists is ninety percent of that uh valuation. Uh, and we think the probability of autonomists has gone up dramatically. I mean, way more is already doing IT and they've broken through a lot of barriers actually four tesler in terms of introducing the concept. Uh, now tesler with seven million robots on the road already learning the roads around the united states and the rest of the world. A if we have national legislation will be in a very good place.

Kathy, where or do you land right now on bitcoin? You've talked about five hundred thousand dollars being the Price point. I don't know if you change the time horizon for that, given what what's happened. Maybe it's been slow or maybe now it's speeding up again. What do you think and what do you think actually drives the Price action.

right? Uh, so we we have a twenty thirty target. In our base case, it's a around six hundred and fifty thousand dollars. In our bull case, it's between one and one point five million dollars.

Uh, now remember we were to the first public asset manager to gain exposure to bitcoin in two thousand and fifteen at two hundred and fifty dollars and we still at ninety thousand. I think we have a long way to go. why?

Uh, well, first of all, we're getting regulatory relief here, and I think that's one of the most important things coming out of this administration. We will get regulatory relief on all kinds of innovation, including health care. Um though the other thing is, uh, we're we're looking at bitcoin now being viewed as a new asset class is not just a global monetary system.

It's a new asset class. And what that means is institutions and asset allocators generally are saying, wait minute, this this asset is behaving differently from all of our other assets we need to include. So I think that's the next big move. And and and if you look at years where the bitcoin has hat and the inflation rate has gone down to point nine, it's usually had a nice big moves.

So that before we you want to question, and that is a back in october rogan article that said, why is anyone listening to Cathy wood? And the author made the point at the time that the funds, the etf fund, had lost two point three billion dollars of shareholder value, which is enormous part of money. I don't think it's the same today.

It's it's Better than that. But why should people listen to you? They by the way, the author gave us a hard time for for even doing views with you.

So it's so interesting that, that we cannot fire our clients. And um I would say we're at the flip side today of where we were in the late twenty twenty one period. We were saying back then hold some powder dry that didn't happen.

Flows just gushed in today were in the opposite situation. We've been great on tesla. Bitcoin NVIDIA at forty cents was our first purchase.

First forty cents. We're pounding the table on that. And now we want to go after health care crib or gene editing.

If you look at J. D. Vance, elon musk, they're all talking about this new wave of cures ahead. So uh, stay tuned.

But how should we think about the volatility of your and some of these big bets in the way you're making them? I ask because as I mentioned, there was a period of time obvious ly twenty that etf blew up t flew up in the best way to hundred fifty percent or something. Um but then of course, um you know if you look at a longer term chart, it's a lot more complicated. And so for those folks who who watch us and you i'll ask you questions and they're listening your answers intently, what are they supposed to think?

Two things. We have a volatile fund. We should not be a huge slice of any portfolio. We are more of a satellite strategy now, although we think this is the way the world is going.

Second, if you take out that boom, bust in a in around covered which which caused all kinds of interesting behaviors, you will look at for the flagship. You'll see a fund that has based for six years, the technologies is around which we have sent our research so much more advanced. Uh, and so we think we are a very good compliment to the broad based benchMarks out there because we don't look anything like them.

And truth will went out. The biggest depression on the fund recently has been in the multiple ics healthcare life sciences space. We think that's gone to change and it's going to change quickly when IT does because the rubber band is stretching, uh, we're now seeing companies like crisper therapy india a on the road to curing diseases, which is a very different model from traditional farmer Cathy.

Would we very much appreciate talking to and appreciate you taking those questions as well.

So thank you. Thank you very much. And do.

That's the pod for today and for the week. Thanks for listening. Square x is hosted by joe turnin, Becky quek and Andrew ross sorkin.

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