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cover of episode Pre-Fourth of July Special: Stock Jump on Jobs Surprise, Trump's Tax Bill Passes

Pre-Fourth of July Special: Stock Jump on Jobs Surprise, Trump's Tax Bill Passes

2025/7/3
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Bloomberg Businessweek
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People
J
Jonathan Levin
L
Lizanne Saunders
M
Michael Balboni
P
Patrick DeHaan
S
Scott Bessent
特朗普提名的财政部长候选人，曾任乔治·索罗斯对冲基金高级管理人，推崇减少预算赤字、放松监管和增加能源生产的经济政策。
Topics
Jonathan Levin: 我分析了当日涨跌的个股，包括ServiceNow因业绩展望良好而上涨，Datadog因被纳入S&P 500指数而上涨，Lucid和Rivian受益于电动汽车税收抵免政策变化，Robinhood因未能被纳入S&P 500指数而下跌，Centene因盈利预期下调而下跌，以及Merck因业绩不佳和关税问题而下跌，但其估值吸引了一些投资者。ServiceNow的Q1业绩表现强劲，且AI为其团队带来了生产力提升。EV税收抵免的结束可能使Lucid和Rivian等公司受益，因为这会导致通用、福特和起亚等公司的撤退，从而为这些纯电动汽车公司提供更多的市场份额。默克公司目前的估值很低，这为其药物生产线提供了选择权。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Stronger-than-expected employment growth soothed concerns about a slowing US economy. This led to a rise in stock markets, hitting record highs, and a surge in Treasury yields. The report also impacted the probability of a Fed interest rate cut in the near future.
  • S&P 500 climbed 0.8%
  • Treasury two-year yields surged 10 basis points to 3.88%
  • Russell 2000 up about a percent
  • ServiceNow with a nice gain, plus 3.5%
  • Datadog up 14.9%
  • Robinhood was down
  • Centene extending losses
  • Merck closing down 1.8%

Shownotes Transcript

Bonds fell and the dollar rose as stronger-than-forecast employment growth soothed concern the US economy is poised to slow, stanching speculation the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates any time soon. Stocks hit fresh all-time highs. 

Treasury two-year yields surged 10 basis points to 3.88%. Swap traders saw almost no chance of a July Fed cut, compared with a roughly 25% probability seen before the data. The chance of a move in September ebbed to about 70%. The S&P 500 climbed 0.8%. After the close of trading in a shortened pre-holiday session, the House passed President Donald Trump’s tax bill. 

On a special pre-holiday edition of The Close, hosts Romaine Bostick and Matt Miller speak with: 

  • Bloomberg Opinion columnist Jonathan Levin 

  • Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab managing director and chief investment strategist

  • Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy 

  • Michael Balboni, former New York State Director of Homeland Security 

  • Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary

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