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cover of episode S&P 500 Hits Record on Vietnam Deal as Tech Climbs

S&P 500 Hits Record on Vietnam Deal as Tech Climbs

2025/7/2
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Bloomberg Businessweek

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B
Brent Meyer
F
Fred Thiel
L
Laura Bliss
M
Mike McKee
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Brent Meyer: 作为亚特兰大联邦储备银行经济调查研究中心的一名助理副总裁和经济学家,我发现,在过去的几个季度里,首席财务官们对经济前景的看法变得越来越悲观。这种悲观情绪似乎与那些最容易受到关税影响的公司有关,特别是那些在进口原材料和供应方面有大量业务的公司。这些公司对未来的GDP增长预期有所下降,对销售收入增长的预期也降低了。与此同时,他们对单位成本和价格的预期却在上升。因此,我们认为,随着时间的推移,关税对首席财务官们的影响正在变得越来越显著。当然,他们最初的起点还是不错的,因为标准普尔500等权重指数的利润率达到了历史新高,这为他们吸收关税影响提供了一定的缓冲空间。然而,我们看到,那些最容易受到关税影响的公司,其利润空间正在受到挤压。有趣的是,那些没有直接受到关税影响的公司,似乎也在提高他们的价格预期,这可能会导致利润进一步压缩。 Mike McKee: 作为彭博新闻的国际经济和政策记者,我对Brent的发现并不感到意外。那些没有直接受到关税影响的公司试图提高价格,这无疑会加剧通货膨胀的担忧。当然,这是否会普遍发生还有待观察。我很好奇,在调查中,是否有人提到,如果7月8日得知互惠关税的消息,他们的情绪可能会好转。这是一个很好的问题,我们下次进行调查时一定会考虑加入这个问题。

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Watch Bloomberg Businessweek Daily LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).A rally in several big techs fueled gains in stocks, with the market extending its advance as President Donald Trump said he reached a trade deal with Vietnam. Treasuries fell as a selloff in UK bonds underscored deficit worries. The dollar was steady.Following earlier losses driven by weak jobs data, the S&P 500 rose to fresh all-time highs. Nike Inc. climbed alongside other apparel and footwear companies amid hopes the latest US trade deal will avert a potential supply-chain catastrophe. Tech megacaps led gains, with Tesla Inc. jumping 5% as a drop in sales was seen as better than feared. Marvell Technology Inc. slid about 2.5% on a report that Microsoft Corp. is scaling back its ambitions for AI chips to overcome delays.Longer-dated Treasuries underperformed, following moves in the UK, where concerns about Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ future reignited questions over the nation’s fiscal position. Investors have raised similar concerns in the US, where the Senate passed Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill.In the run-up to the jobs report, economists forecast employers added 110,000 jobs in June — the fewest in four months — amid a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report is due Thursday, a day earlier than usual because of the Independence Day holiday.Data Wednesday showed employment at US companies fell for the first time in over two years. Despite signs of a downshift, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeated the labor market remains solid. Policymakers have refrained from lowering interest rates this year as they wait to see the impact of tariffs on inflation.Today's show features:

  • Brent Meyer, Assistant Vice President and Economist in the Economic Survey Research Center at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Bloomberg TV and Radio International Economics & Policy Correspondent Mike McKee on a new report from the Atlanta Fed: “The Evolving Impact of Tariffs on CFOs' Outlook”
  • Bloomberg Businessweek writer Deena Shanker on her story about SNAP cuts in the Federal tax and spending bill potentially hurting people in red and blue states alike
  • Bloomberg Businessweek Editor and Writer Laura Bliss on her Bloomberg Big Take about landfills around the US reaching scorching temperatures and getting nearby residents sick
  • Fred Thiel, Chairman and CEO of MARA on the regulatory outlook for Bitcoin and the company’s energy consumption and deployment strategy in terms of Bitcoin mining

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