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cover of episode Crisis-Proof Investing: Strategies for a Shaky Future

Crisis-Proof Investing: Strategies for a Shaky Future

2023/8/2
logo of podcast Money For the Rest of Us

Money For the Rest of Us
AI Chapters Transcript
Chapters
This chapter analyzes Alvin Toffler's predictions from his book "The Third Wave" written 40 years ago. It compares the predictions about technology, work patterns, and energy transition with the reality of today, highlighting both accurate and inaccurate forecasts. The chapter uses data on parcel shipping, working hours, and energy consumption to illustrate the points.
  • Toffler accurately predicted an energy transition but underestimated the continued reliance on fossil fuels.
  • Predictions about reduced working hours and increased self-production were largely incorrect.
  • Global parcel volume increased dramatically, indicating increased consumption rather than self-production.

Shownotes Transcript

Given climate change and other risks, how should you invest for the next forty years?

Topics covered include:

  • What predictions from the last forty years came true and which didn't
  • Why the next forty years will have a lot of similarities to the last forty years despite the promise of AI
  • Why the scale and complexity of the world make big transitions away from oil, cement, and natural gas unlikely
  • Why economic growth and consumption will likely continue leading to positive investment returns
  • How should our portfolios and lifestyle be structured to build resilience

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Show Notes

The Third Wave by Alvin Toffler—Penguin Random House)

Parcel shipping index 2022—Pitney Bowes)

America Is Drowning in Packages by Amanda Mull—The Atlantic)

How to Spend Way Less Time on Email Every Day by Matt Plummer—Harvard Business Review)

World Population Prospects—United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs)

Global Climate Change Vital Signs—NASA)

Congestion Pricing Plan in New York City Clears Final Federal Hurdle by Ana Ley—The New York Times)

New Jersey Sues Over Congestion Pricing in New York City by Ana Ley—The New York Times)

How the World Really Works by Vaclav Smil—Penguin Random House)

Does Sam Altman Know What He's Creating? by Ross Andersen—The Atlantic)

The Economic Cost of Houston’s Heat: ‘I Don’t Want to Be Here Anymore’ by Rachel Wolfe and Amara Omeokwe—The Wall Street Journal)

SEC Proposes Rules to Enhance and Standardize Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors—U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission)

SEC’s Climate-Disclosure Rule Isn’t Here, but It May as Well Be, Many Businesses Say by Richard Vanderford—The Wall Street Journal)

Market Myopia's Climate Bubble by Madison Condon—Boston University School of Law)

What Really Happens to the Clothes You Donate by Oliver Franklin-Wallis—GQ)

OpenAI's Sam Altman launches Worldcoin crypto project by Anna Tong—Reuters)

Worldcoin’s premise is a disturbing one by Tabby Kinder—The Financial Times)

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