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How Did They Do? - Revisiting Carbon, SPACs, Silver, Convertible Bonds, and Frontier Markets

2023/6/14

Money For the Rest of Us

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David Stein

Topics

David Stein：本期节目回顾了碳、SPAC、白银、可转换债券和前沿市场这五种资产类型的表现和投资前景。 SPACs 表现糟糕，平均三年回报率为负 57%。SPAC 发起人的激励机制存在错位，他们有动机寻找收购目标，即使这可能对 SPAC 股东不利。因此，建议投资者避免投资 SPACs。可转换债券兼具债券和股票的特性，其回报来自债券利息和潜在的股票转换收益。预期回报约为 8%，基于到期收益率和股票市场上涨带来的收益。iShares 可转换债券 ETF (ICVT) 自 2020 年 12 月以来的年化回报率为负 5.1%。白银投资主要通过 ETF 或白银期货进行。iShares 白银信托自 2021 年 2 月以来的年化回报率为负 5%。白银的投资具有投机性。前沿市场是指经济发展处于早期阶段的国家的股票市场。iShares 前沿和精选新兴市场 ETF 自 2021 年 6 月以来的年化回报率为负 18%。然而，前沿市场的估值变得更有吸引力，预期回报率更高。碳市场是各国为减少碳排放而建立的交易系统。Crane Shares 全球碳 ETF (KRBN) 自 2021 年 7 月以来的年化回报率为 17.3%。碳市场的投资具有投机性，其价格受政府政策影响。总而言之，可转换债券和前沿市场是相对较好的投资选择，而 SPACs 则应避免。碳和白银的投资具有投机性，风险较高。

Deep Dive

Chapters

This chapter analyzes the performance of SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) since their peak in 2020. It highlights the inherent conflicts of interest and ultimately concludes that SPACs have been a poor investment for shareholders due to misaligned incentives and poor performance.

Average three-year return for SPACs (2012-2022) is -57%
SPAC and New Issue ETF (SPCX) returned -1.7% annualized since October 2020
Author's personal experience investing in SPACs resulted in breaking even

Shownotes Transcript

We review the performance and investment prospects for carbon, SPACs, silver, convertible bonds, and frontier markets.

Topics covered:

What has been the performance of these five asset types since they were discussed on the podcast two to three years ago
What are the underlying performance drivers and expected returns going forward
Which asset types are most and least attractive

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Show Notes

Initial Public Offerings: Updated Statistics by Jay R. Ritter—Warrington College of Business, University of Florida)

Two SPAC ETFs Close in One Month, Suggesting End to Wall Street Boom by Emily Graffeo—Bloomberg)

Investments Mentioned

Vanguard Total World Stock Market ETF (VT)

SPAC and New Issue ETF (SPCX)

iShares Convertible Bond ETF (ICVT)

iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ)