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How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing, and Well Being

2022/7/27

Money For the Rest of Us

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David Stein

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我分析了联合国2022年发布的世界人口展望报告，预测全球人口将在2086年达到峰值104亿，之后将停止增长。人口增长趋势受出生率、预期寿命和净移民等因素影响。高收入国家由于出生率低，将需要更多移民来维持人口，这将对劳动力市场和工资产生影响。人口老龄化将导致抚养比上升，这可能导致通货膨胀，因为劳动年龄人口需要支持更多非劳动年龄人口。一些研究表明，人口年龄结构与通货膨胀之间存在联系，老年人口比例较高可能导致通货膨胀。然而，生产力提高和技术进步可能抵消这种影响。此外，人口增长对自然资源和环境造成压力，可能导致通货膨胀。为了应对这些挑战，全球经济需要向稳态经济过渡，即人口和投资不再增长，但福祉持续改善。稳态经济将改变投资环境，投资回报可能更多地来自收入而非资本增值。实际利率可能上升，因为老年人口的储蓄减少，而对投资的需求增加。个人层面，我们也应该关注福祉而非物质消费，减少需求可以提高自由度和幸福感。

Deep Dive

Chapters

This chapter explores the UN's World Population Prospects report, highlighting projected population growth, fertility rates, and life expectancy globally. It also examines variations in population trends across different regions and countries, such as the contrasting growth rates of India and China.

World population is projected to peak around 2086 at 10.4 billion.
India's population is expected to surpass China's by 2050.
Many high-income countries face shrinking populations.

Shownotes Transcript

How slowing population growth and an eventual population peak will lead to competition for foreign workers, potentially higher inflation, and ultimately the need to transition to a steady-state economy rather than one based on constantly producing more.

Topics covered include:

How longevity and birthrates impact population growth
What areas of the world are seeing population increases versus declines
Why high income countries will need more immigrants in order to sustain their population levels
When is global population expected to peak and at what level
Will greater dependency ratios lead to higher inflation
What is the difference between growth and development
How slowing population growth will impact investments
Why the world will need to transition to a steady-state economy focused on well-being rather than growth

For more information on this episode click here).

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Show Notes

World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results—United Nations Department of Economy and Social Affairs)

Five Key Findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects by Hannah Ritchie, et al.)

Germany Plans to Simplify Immigration Rules to Combat Labour Shortage—Schengen Visa)

High Cost Deters IT Gurus from Filling Luxembourg Jobs by Kate Oglesby)

Another Beautiful Italian Town Is Selling €1 Homes—This Time, No Deposit Required by Cailey Rizzo)

Will Inflation Make a Comeback as Populations Age? by Olli Rehn)

The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Wanting Inequality, and an Inflation Revival by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan)