Is Success Due to Hard Work, Talent, or Luck?
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How to survive in a world where luck and randomness play a pivotal role.

Topics covered include:

• What are power laws
• What are the narrative fallacy and hindsight bias
• What are examples of domains where randomness has contributed to success
• What are ways to distinguish investing skill from luck
• How sixth-century philosopher Boethius had an accurate view of chance
• What are ways we can benefit from good luck while protecting ourselves from bad luck

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Show Notes

Redacted messages to and from Elon Musk—Delaware’s Court of Chancery)

Elon Musk’s Texts Shatter the Myth of the Tech Genius by Charlie Warzel—The Atlantic)

Talent Versus Luck: The Role of Randomness In Success and Failure by Alessandro Pluchino, Alessio Emanuele Biondo, and Andrea Rapisarda)

Susan Alexandra)

Welcome to Susan Alexandra’s Dream World by Sophia Herring—Clever, Architectural Digest)

The Fashion Set Can’t Get Enough of Susan Alexandra’s Colorful, Kitschy Designs by Noah Lehava—Coveteur)

Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact by Roberta Sinatra et al.)

What's in a Surname? The Effects of Surname Initials on Academic Success by Liran Einav and Leeat Yariv)

Middle names make you look smarter—University of Southhampton)

Admission to Selective Schools, Alphabetically by Štěpán Jurajda and Daniel Münich)

It Pays to Be Herr Kaiser: Germans With Noble-Sounding Surnames More Often Work as Managers Than as Employees by Raphael Silberzahn and Eric Luis Uhlmann)

The relative-age effect and career success: Evidence from corporate CEOs by Qianqian Du, Huasheng Gao, Maurice D. Levi)

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

Were Those Great Returns the Result of Skill — or Just Luck? by Julie Segal—Institutional Investor)

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