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Is the Rest of the World Selling America?

2025/4/23

Money For the Rest of Us

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David Stein

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David Stein: 我在节目中分析了过去30年美国经济的三个阶段，并探讨了当前美国经济叙事可能正在发生转变。首先，1995年到2001年，美国经济繁荣，互联网泡沫推动股市上涨，美元升值，美国财政盈余。这期间，美国吸引了大量外国资本，增长型投资显著优于价值型投资。其次，2002年到2012年，全球化和中国的崛起成为主导力量，美元贬值，新兴市场表现优于美国。这一时期，美国政府的债务不断增加，2008年金融危机进一步加剧了这一趋势。第三，2011年到2024年，美国经济再次占据主导地位，美元升值，大型科技股表现出色。然而，生产力增长缓慢，收入不平等加剧。现在，2025年，美国经济叙事可能正在发生变化。美元贬值，非美国股票表现优于美国股票，信贷利差扩大，长期国债收益率上升，这些都表明投资者对美国经济的信心下降。赴美旅游人数下降也印证了这一趋势。目前，我们还无法确定这种转变是否永久性，这取决于未来贸易政策、消费者和企业行为等多种因素。但全球多元化投资策略在2025年已经显现出其重要性。

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Chapters

This chapter analyzes the economic and financial performance of the US from 1995-2001, highlighting the dot-com bubble, the appreciation of the US dollar, and the resulting budget surpluses. It explores the narrative of US economic dominance during this period and its impact on investment returns.

US stock market rose 37% in 1995
Growth stock investing outperformed value investing
US dollar appreciated about 6% per year
US ran budget surpluses from 1998 to 2001
US stock market outperformed the rest of the world with over 14% annualized return

Shownotes Transcript

The U.S has traditionally been a safe haven for investing, but that hasn't been the case in 2025. We explore three economic and narrative regimes and consider why we may be witnessing a shift after 12 years of U.S. outperformance.

Topics covered include:

What was the narrative and economic and financial performance from 1995-2001, 2002-2012, and 2012 -2024.
How the performance of the U.S. dollar impacted returns
Why did economic forecasters predict the U.S. national debt would be paid off in 2011, and why were they wrong?
Signs that the current economic and financial narrative is shifting.

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Show Notes

Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan Outlook for the federal budget and implications for fiscal policy Before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate January 25, 2001—The Federal Reserve Board)

Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product—FRED Economic Data)

Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers—FRED Economic Data)

Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events by Robert J. Shiller—Princeton University Press)

Donald Trump vs Mr Market by Tim Harford—The Financial Times)

Tourism boycott? Europe travel to US drops in wake of Trump presidency by Talyta França & Alessio Dell'Anna, Mert Can Yilmaz—euronews)