Our Car Was Attacked! Is Property Crime Increasing?
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What kind of money for the rest of us? This is a personal financial on money. How IT works, how to invest IT and how to live without worrying about IT and your host David stein today is episode four forty seven is titled our car was attacked.

Is property crime increasing about a week? O A prony or attending a family wedding in the east bay area? Lovely event.

And as we were returning our rental car to the airport, we got off the highway near the oakland airport, and I stopped at a severn station on hegan burger road. IT looked like a clean station. There was a choice between two to choose from.

I filled the car with gas and got back in the car and was getting ready to start IT. When we heard a giant crash, it's tartlet us. And then we heard another crash.

The pro looked in yellow because they were hands reaching into the back of the hatchback of the venza that we rented from run a car, two hands, trying to steal our bags. I immediately jumped out of the car without even thinking. And you'll get get out here.

I ran around the car and the thief by then jumped into their escape car and they took off without actually getting anything. There was glass, obviously, all over our luggage in the car, the process, which we call the police. And no, i'm getting at here.

What if they come back? I saw drive around the corner, a great car tend to win dows. I didn't get the the license ate. So we drove to the airport and dropped the car off, reported IT to the attendant there. When he saw what happened, he basically could tell us exactly where we went at that chavez station.

I asked him how many of the cars that visit that gas station that return there have their luggage stolen or their window smash? He said, eighty to ninety percent. He says they warned people all the time don't go there, as well as the in and out burger right next to IT, because so many thieves are smashing windows, are just opening doors and taking luggage within a couple hours.

On that same day, we had some extended family members go to the same gas station, two of the occupants of the car went inside the gas station. There was one gentleman that remained in the car, and another car pulled up right behind them, went to the front seat, open the trunk age and store their luggage. Unfortunately, I have two words.

Looked at the reviews of the gas station, one and a half stars and at least individuals, after individuals that had things robed at the station, one reviewer said, I told the hurt car rental attended at oak airport. I was robed. He said, if I got gas at the hig burger chef run, well, he reads mind.

He preceded to tell me that four other people were rob that same day, and how many other people were victimize that we don't know about the national fifty dollar? How many were robed didn't to report IT, he said some did not realize they were robbed until act, or they got gas and open the trunk at the car rental lot. Now i've not heard back from fox rental car.

They said they call me. I'm shocked that the counter agent didn't warn me. I'm equally shocked they gave me a car with florida tes, which obviously indicate I wasn't local.

As I thought about that and other antidotes we read about with shop lifting, organized retail crime, smash and grabs, there is the impression that how things are really getting bad in this country. So I thought, everyone, and to see how bad they've gotten, turns out the trend in crime, including property crime, is down over the past decades in the united states. This is data from the FBI.

In thousand nine hundred and ninety two, there were seven hundred and fifty one Violet crimes anally per one hundred thousand people. Violent crime includes murder, manslaughter, rape, robber y and aggravated assault. In twenty fourteen, IT hit a low of three hundred and sixty one violent crimes per one hundred thousand people.

That's a fifty two percent decline from one thousand and ninety two through twenty fourteen. And then we've had a slight uptake in twenty twenty one, there were three hundred and ninety two violent crimes per one hundred thousand people. Again, that compares to three hundred and sixty one in twenty fourteen.

Now there's there's been some chAllenges in the most recent data because FBI has moved to a more comprehensive national incident based report system. And so in the most recent year of data, only about half the agencies in the country reported. So IT, that's for that twenty twenty one data.

But if we look at other statistics focused on property crime, robbery, theft, this is from statistic that's pulling data. Just hang property crime from the FBI. In one thousand nine hundred and ninety one, there were five thousand, one hundred and forty incidents of property crime per one hundred thousand people.

In twenty and twenty one, it's down to one hundred and thirty three, a sixty two percent decline in property crime. You look at the the graph and IT, there's a downward slope now you wouldn't think that based on the anecdotal incidents now that doesn't mean that's national. Oakland currently has much higher property crime rates than the rest of the country.

This is from best places dot net. They use a ranking of zero to one hundred, with one hundred being high crime. Oakland property crimes at eighty one point two versus thirty five point four across all the united states, surprisingly, new york city twenty four point nine lower than the national average.

And Francisco has similar property crime rate as oakland at seventy nine point two, but its violent crime rate is about half that of oakland. If we look overall at the trend within oakland in the last three years, there has been an increase in property crime as well as violent crime. So robberies are up.

This is just the six, much through june two thousand and twenty three compared to the other six months periods going back to twenty fifteen. Robbery is as high as it's been in the last six years as is auto burglaries, motor vehicle theft. It's gotten so bad, an ocean, that the N W A C P issued an open letter that said, oakland residents are second tired of our intolerable public safety crisis that overwhelmingly impacts minority communities.

Murder, shootings, violent armed barby's, home invasions, car break and sideshows and highway shoot out to become a pervasive picture of life. And we call on all elected leaders, unite and declare a state emergency, and bring together massive resources to address our public safety crisis. Afro americans are disproportionate.

AI hit the hardest by crime in his stock land, another part of the city, but residents from all part of the city report that they do not feel safe. Another data source on crime, nash's, is the council on criminal justice in looking at property crimes last three years. And this is based on thirty five american cities, so not represented the entire country, but robberies, which is a theft committed with force or a threat of force.

I don't know if you're in a car and the thieves smash your window and try to grab your luggage, is that robbery? They didn't necessarily threaten us, but they clearly threaten our car and scared us. But if we look at robberies, they were down in twenty twenty and twenty twenty wander the pandemic, but increased five and ha percent in twenty twenty two, but till four percent lower than in twenty nineteen.

There's not been a big uptick there. There were fewer residential burglaries in those thirty five cities compared to twenty twenty one. Non residential burglaries increased eleven percent in twenty twenty two, but are still eight percent lower than twenty thousand listening, which is staff that is not accompanied by force or breaking an entry.

The two most common types of larceny would be motor vehicle theft and shop lifting. They rose eight percent twenty two, but are six percent lower than twenty nine, where we seen a big increase. So is motor vehicle theft.

Motor vehicle theft increase twenty one percent in twenty and twenty two and is fifty nine percent higher than twenty nineteen. The FBI estimates at seven point four billion dollars was lost to the motor vehicle theft in twenty. The number of car jacking is up twenty four percent, and the number of catholic converter theft has skyrocket.

There is a two hundred and ninety percent increase, and insurance claims between twenty twenty two and twenty twenty for individuals having their catalist converters stolen from the car. Catalist converters contain platinum, radium and podium, these rare earth metals that are more viable than gold. These these can sell these catalist converters for up to two hundred fifty dollars at a meta y cycle, but if it's a hybrid, IT can be up to eight hundred dollars.

So generally speaking, the overall trend and property crime is down with the exception of catalytic converter and motor vehicle theft. So we've seen a Spike the last year, but the trend is definitely down since the one thousand and ninety. But my perception and the perception of most people is it's up galpy as a survey every year since one thousand nine hundred and ninety three in and twenty and other twenty four surveys, IT shows that sixty percent of the adults believe that crime nationally is higher than the year before since nineteen and ninety three.

But it's actually been going down, although when they're asked about crime in their own community, less than fifty percent say it's higher than the prager why they realized crime has been on a downward trend nationally. And then IT raises the question is why? Why was crime down? And if we knew why IT was bound, maybe those same reasons are why IT has Spiked at least some violent crime.

Auto f even though overall property crime continues down at least through twenty twenty one will talk about the retail side, retail stores and shop lifting here in a few minutes. There appears to have been a Spike there, least anti, based on what stores are saying in their quarter, the earnings calls. The theory behind why crime goes down or increases is based on the idea of how we behave under uncertainty, and individuals rationally look at the benefit of committing a crime versus the cost of of engaging in that activity, whether they get caught, and that there's things that could influence that potentially.

How attractive IT is that what they called the illegal labor market and i've not heard of that term? Or you know how is income equality or unemployment? Or are the demographics impact that there was reported twenty fifteen by the brand and center for justice title? What caused the crime decline? The brand on center for justice is a non partisan law and policy institute.

And my first thought is what crime is going down? Because there are a fewer Younger people as a percent of the population. And I seems like I read that many years ago in a malon gladwell book looking at the decline in crime IT is true that in the nineties and the eighties there was a decrease in Young people as a percentage of the population and the the data suggest that two to three percent of the crime drop in the one hundred and ninety.

Can be attributed to a decrease in individuals aged fifteen to thirty. So only two to three percent, maybe up to five percent based on the confident range. So I thought I would be more than that, but IT wasn't.

In fact, as we go through these things, there isn't anything that this proportionally says why crime dropped. If we look at incarceration rates, clearly, as more people were imprisoned, crime dropped. But just because there's that correlation doesn't mean that what cost IT.

Because during the seventies, crime was increasing as was incarceration. Now that the data suggest that about six percent of the reduction and property crime in the ninety nineties was due to increasing incarceration, but there are diminishing return as more criminals are locked up there. There isn't a necessarily a big drop in crime.

And the risk of that is there in back in the eighties, the three structure out rule that was there in many areas of the country, caught up criminals, put, put them in prison for life. I have a friend that served for over thirty years for treat robberies, not violent robberies, just drug related teenager stuff, over thirty years in prison. He finally got out a couple years ago because an attorney sort of filing went in front of the judge to get the to get him released.

I mean that that's incredibly long time to be in prison for not having committed a violent crime. So there is some connection there, but that doesn't explain most of the drop in crime. The the right to Carry guns hasn't had any impact on the drop in crime, but unemployment rate.

So economic factors seem to have a modest impact. So if there are fewer jobs, then that looks like an account for about two percent of the drop in crime in the nineties. But during the great financial crisis, with unemployment Spike, there wasn't a big jumping crime during two thousand and eight and two thousand and nine.

Consumer confidence, how confidence, I guess, potential criminals are in being able to get a job that leads them to still things that has a very small effect. Alcohol consumption does impact crime rates is there's more per capital alcohol consumption. Crime rates go up.

But looking at the data, alcohol consumption is basically after dropping in the nineties, is kind of held steady. And then finally, one that I was never heard this, the idea that unled IT gas, because gasoline had LED in IT for decades, IT potentially LED to lower IQ and more violent behavior. And so as the U.

S. Switch to disallowing let IT gas and went to unlet IT that we had a generation and that wasn't exposed to let IT gas and that LED to the crime rate. That's controversial, but the some of the data supports that yeah the ack of LED IT gas LED to a drop in crime.

So I don't know entirely, it's multifaceted. Don't know why I dropped over fifty percent property crime and violent crime, which means when we have some data that sees a going in a different action, for example, murders were up twenty eight percent in twenty twenty compared to twenty nineteen. And so we've seen jump up and murders, and it's just too soon.

Because if don't we can figure IT out after decades exactly why crime is decreasing to see a Spike in a particular element, it'll take years to figure out before we can continue. Let me power to share some words from this week. sponsors. Knowing where our one's going in how it's being spent helps us feel more at peace.

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The guide is free to you at night. Sweet not come last, David. Net sweet outcome, slash David on our money for the rest plus forms. This is our premium and membership community. If you want to learn more about investing, we have A A form there where we have a number discussions. And a member asked about shinkiro, which is a retail term for the retail industry, about inventory that gets lost so IT gets stolen or what. I guess I just get lost also, they send IT to the wrong place, could be damaged, basically inventory that isn't sold because its stolen, lost or damaged.

And if we look at the recent earnings calls and step back that a form member, one of us to talk about IT and I was heard a number these earnings calls and reports about retailers such as target, walmart, home deepo or our earnings were negatively impacted by shrink by shrinkage target CEO. Brian cornell said an unacceptable amount of retail theft and organized retail crime was presenting a huge chAllenge that the CFO Michael fedex said that disappearance of merchandise resulted in a four hundred million thousand reduction in targets. Growth profit for the year, he said, shrink in the second quarter remain consistent with our expectation but well above the sustainable level where we expect to Operate over time.

Walmart CEO john fenner in U. S. At trinkets had risen slightly in twenty twenty three following increase in the prior year. Home deep POS said their profit margins were hurt by retail theft.

There definitely seems to be an optic and organized retail crime of gun crimes, particularly the smash grab all IT wants, for example, targets. Corner said that their stores saw a hundred and two twenty percent increase in theft incidents involving violence or threats of violence. The most comprehensive data that I could see on the shrinkage and impact is the national retail security survey by the national retail federation.

They have done this annually, their scheduled release, their next one later this months. But the most recent one we have is for fiscal year twenty and twenty one, going back to fiscal year twenty sixteen. This is what surprised me if we look at the inventory shrink percentage of total retail sales, the average is basically, say, to stayed the same.

In fact, the average was one point four percent for fiscal year twenty twenty one. The same is twenty sixteen, but less than twenty twenty. When I was one point six percent, the media been about the same two at one point two percent.

So the actual shrinkage across the industry as a percentage of sales has an increased yet. There's all this anodos evidence, but IT has now that could be maybe this year, and I will show up in the survey, which will be released later this month. Now in that twenty twenty one survey, respondents saw a twenty seven percent increase in organized retail crime incidents in eight of ten, an increase in violence so that that to become more violent.

But the impact as a percentage of sales hasn't really increased. Different dataset. Jack l. Haze international, this is a loss prevention consulting firm.

They report that large retailers have apprehended fifty percent more shop lifters in twenty twenty two compared to the prayer. So we could be happening. I mean that clearly unorganized retail crime is increasing.

But the impact on the bottom line, at least based on survey data, isn't showing up yet. Even though retailers are saying it's having an impact, IT is having an impact on retail workers. So the turn over in retail workers with seventy percent turn over prior to the pandemic.

Now it's ninety five percent partly. It's a tough business to work in. The clients just started as nice as they were.

Yeah the deal potentially with incase shop lifting and then just the sheer board, am I having the unlock tooth pace and all these things are now being lacked up in some stores in higher crime areas. Bottom line then, the overall trend and property crime has been down in the united states the last few decades. The problem why are not entirely clear.

It's a combination of things. Partly higher incarceration rates has had an impact. Fewer Young people has a small impact. Less alcohol consumption has an impact. Maybe gasoline a lack and like a gas, but there isn't IT would be nice. Who can just say it's just that there's fewer Young people, but that isn't IT because the percentage of Young people hasn't really changed very much in the last decade. But IT is possible that in the last year.

So there's been a change higher crime rates, and we don't know why ticula ly in some higher crime areas such as oakland based on what we've seen there, including what the one I have experiences when we don't know what's happening, but there's a threat, but there's uncertainty. Our response to be to to modify our exposure, reduce our exposure to the potential risk. And it's something that i'm sure you do and we've done.

You just don't leave things in the car or make sure they're in the trunk. But if they're the trunk, IT shouldn't be a laptop that sending off a blue tooth signal that these can detect that. And we did that on our trip is just here for returning to the airport.

We have purchased a celtic converter cover to put over the prius that our daughter sand have to protect that. One of the things, the new rules of thun for me is to check reviews of gas stations where I think I might be. Filling up in an unknown area, particularly returning a rental car to the airport and and maybe even if that makes sense to prepare gas, I find them annoying unless theyve changed the rules.

When you prepare gas for rental car, they charge you for the entire tank of gas. And at least at fox render car, the Price that they were quoting to refill the entire tank was basically the same Price as the the local gas station. Although I prepaid IT, then our car wouldn't have been smashed, but I choked the reviews and you check the reviews of this particular gas station and there's listing after listing us of individuals that were robed.

Now why the police aren't targeting that particular station is I I just don't know, set up posting up oration and we don't know. And then the fourth thing is just aware, if we don't feel comfortable with something in our intuition, says get away, then get away or don't don't go there, but just be aware of these parts of our brain that are waiting smarter than the rational parts. And there are parts of my brain, but haven't rehearsed what to do if somebody y's smashing the back window of your car.

IT was stupid to get out and chase the person. But again, IT was, IT was a pure general. All had to do is drive away.

I was right there, but I didn't. I ran because I did not want my things stolen, and in our bags were heavy, but I didn't want to look one back. There was most easy for them to get, had laptop in there, ipad, kindle.

And I just reacted and that I made the wrong choice. And i'm super glad that individual didn't pull out a weapon on me or something like that started. He ran.

So crime is down over the decade. There is some evident that has increased recently, and we don't know why. So be aware that episode for forty seven.

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