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cover of episode Tariffs and the Mar-a-Lago Accord: What Trump Really Wants

Tariffs and the Mar-a-Lago Accord: What Trump Really Wants

2025/3/12
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Money For the Rest of Us

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David Stein
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我分析了特朗普政府的经济政策,特别是其对关税的使用。我认为,特朗普政府的目标是通过一系列策略来削弱美元,以增强美国制造业的竞争力并提升国家安全。 他们认为,美元的强势导致美国贸易逆差和资本盈余过大,损害了美国制造业的竞争力。他们希望通过减少贸易逆差和资本盈余来削弱美元。 特朗普政府将关税作为一种谈判工具,试图迫使其他国家采取行动来增强其货币,从而导致美元贬值。他们认为,这将使美国制造业在全球市场上更具竞争力,并有助于解决国家安全问题,因为强大的制造业对国家安全至关重要。 然而,这种策略存在风险。如果美国股市继续下跌,美元贬值,可能会导致经济衰退。此外,其他国家也可能采取报复性措施,导致贸易战升级。 总的来说,特朗普政府的策略旨在重塑全球经济秩序,但其成功与否仍存在不确定性。他们的目标是同时拥有更弱的美元、更小的赤字以及美元作为储备货币的地位,这将是一个复杂且充满挑战的任务。

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The US stock market's underperformance compared to global markets, coupled with rising volatility and junk bond spreads, raises concerns about a potential recession. President Trump's tariff announcements and comments on the economy further fuel these concerns, with major investment banks increasing their recession probability predictions.
  • US stocks down 5%, global stocks up 9%
  • VIX volatility index up to 28.7%
  • Increased recession probabilities from major investment banks
  • Trump announces tariff increase on Canadian steel and aluminum

Shownotes Transcript

How the Trump administration is using tariffs as a negotiating tool to weaken the U.S. dollar and increase the global competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers.

Topics covered include:

  • Why U.S. stocks are falling, and recession risk is increasing
  • How the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency is becoming a burden on the U.S.
  • How the Trump administration aims to reduce its trade deficit and make it less attractive for foreign governments to own U.S. assets
  • What are the risks of trying to weaken the U.S. dollar

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Show Notes

Stock Market News, March 10, 2025: Nasdaq Falls 4% After Trump Doesn't Rule Out Recession by Caitlin McCabe and Krystal Hur—The Wall Street Journal)

Trump Says US Economy Faces ‘Transition,’ Avoids Recession Call by María Paula Mijares Torres—Bloomberg)

Is the U.S. Heading for a Recession? Here’s What the Experts Say by Caitlin McCabe—The Wall Street Journal)

Mark Carney Wins Canada Liberal Contest, Will Succeed Trudeau in Days by Brian Platt and Laura Dhillon Kane—Bloomberg)

Entering the Fall 2024 | Alarming Signs? - Fireside Chat with Scott Bessent by Simplify Asset Management—YouTube)

A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System by Stephen Miran—Hudson Bay Capital)

Could Trump devalue the dollar with a "Mar-a-Lago Accord"? by Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew—Aberdeen Investments)

Wonking Out: The Mysteries of the Almighty Dollar by Paul Krugman—The New York Times)

On the Persistence of the China Shock by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson—NBER)

Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)—World Bank Data Group | Prosperity Data360)

Council of Economic Advisors Chair Nominee Stephen Miran’s Critique of the Global Monetary System—Part I by Steven B. Kamin—AEI)

Using Stock Returns to Assess the Aggregate Effect of the U.S.‑China Trade War by Mary Amiti, Matthieu Gomez, Sang Hoon Kong, and David E. Weinstein—Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Two cheers for Germany’s fiscal reform by Neil Shearing—Capital Economics)

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