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The Pandemic Might Be "Over," but Not the Repercussions

2022/9/21

Money For the Rest of Us

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David Stein

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我观察到拜登总统宣布疫情结束对疫苗制造商股价的冲击，这引发了关于疫情是否真正结束以及其长期影响的讨论。从Ipsos的民调数据来看，人们的自我隔离行为和对外出就餐、社交活动的风险认知都在下降，这表明人们正在逐渐适应疫情后的生活。然而，疫情的经济影响依然存在，包括通货膨胀、工作方式的改变以及对投资策略的影响。 Bianchi和Melosi的研究指出，低通胀需要稳定的政府债务和公众对政府财政责任的信心。当前高政府债务水平和公众信心可能导致结构性通胀。 Ramey的研究则强调了技术进步对生产力的影响，并指出当前生产力增长缓慢，需要新的技术突破来促进经济增长。我个人在投资方面也吸取了一些教训，例如在极端情况下要及时获利了结，以及避免投资波动性过大的对冲工具。总而言之，虽然疫情可能已经结束，但其影响仍在持续，我们需要适应新的常态，并调整我们的风险认知和投资策略。

Deep Dive

Chapters

This chapter explores the ongoing impact of COVID-19, examining whether the pandemic is truly over and how behaviors and risk perceptions have changed. It analyzes data on self-quarantine, dining out, and social gatherings to assess the shift in attitudes towards COVID-19.

President Biden declared the pandemic over, causing a significant market reaction.
Data from Johns Hopkins University shows a decrease in weekly COVID-19 deaths.
ISPOS polls reveal that self-quarantine rates have declined, while dining out and social gatherings have returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Public risk perception of COVID-19 related activities have decreased significantly.

Shownotes Transcript

How risk perceptions and actions have changed over several years of the pandemic. How the pandemic's impacts continue to affect politics, the economy, financial markets, how we invest, and our personal lives.

Topics covered include:

Is the pandemic really over?
What percentage of people continue to isolate at home
How behaviors such as eating out and visiting friends have changed throughout the pandemic.
How work has changed with the pandemic
Has pandemic stimulus changed beliefs about the sustainability of the national debt leading to structural inflation
How productivity improvements could improve the national debt burden
What investment lessons has David learned from the pandemic

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Show Notes

Biden’s claim that ‘pandemic is over’ complicates efforts to secure funding by Dan Diamond—The Washington Post)

COVID-19 Dashboard—The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University)

Axios/Ipsos COVID-19 Poll – Wave 70, September 9–12, 2022)

Study: 163 Million People Dine Out at Least Once a Week—QSR Magazine)

U.S. Return-to-Office Rates Hit Pandemic High as More Employers Get Tougher By Peter Grant—The Wall Street Journal)

Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy; Panel Topic: An End to Pre-Pandemic Trends or Just a Temporary Interruption? by Valerie A. Ramey)

Inflation as a Fiscal Limit by Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi)