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cover of episode Who Should Bear the Cost? Socialized versus Market-Based Risk Management

Who Should Bear the Cost? Socialized versus Market-Based Risk Management

2025/1/22
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Money For the Rest of Us

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David Stein
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我作为节目的主持人,讨论了加州野火造成的巨大经济损失,以及大部分损失未投保的现状。我分析了慕尼黑再保险公司的数据,指出2024年自然灾害造成的损失总额巨大,其中未投保的比例很高,并且非高峰风险(如洪水、野火和强雷暴)造成的损失正在增加。气候变化导致极端天气事件更加频繁和严重,这增加了保险损失。 我解释了保险公司的运作机制,以及加州《提案103》对房屋保险市场的影响。由于损失率高,一些保险公司停止在加州销售新保单。再保险公司也在减少对非高峰风险的敞口,导致保险危机加剧。 我讨论了加州新的房屋保险规定,允许保险公司将再保险成本计入保费,并使用预测模型设定保费。我还比较了社会化风险和市场化风险,分析了两种模式的优缺点。社会化风险可能导致风险行为增加,而市场化风险可以防止逆向选择和道德风险。 我以美国《平价医疗法案》和医疗保险为例,说明了社会化风险的挑战。州级剩余市场计划(如加州公平计划)的重要性增加,但这些计划的资金可能不足以应对重大灾害。加州新的保险法允许私人保险公司向客户收取州级剩余市场计划的评估费用。 最后,我总结了社会化风险和市场化风险之间的平衡是一个持续的挑战,需要在确保保险公平、市场化的同时,解决人们无力承担保险成本的问题。气候变化的影响已经体现在保险费率和再保险公司的行为中,我们需要不断适应和调整风险管理策略。

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Shownotes Transcript

Natural disasters are becoming more severe and costly—who should bear the financial burden? We explore the tension between socialized risk and market-based insurance.

Topics covered include:

  • The surprisingly large percentage of natural disaster losses that are uninsured
  • Why natural disaster severity is increasing
  • A deep dive into the complexity of the home insurance market, including state-based home insurance plans
  • How California has tried to update its home insurance regulations, leading to potentially greater coverage but higher premiums
  • How socialized insurance relieves the cost burden to consumers but can also lead to riskier behavior and adverse risk selection

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Show Notes

California wildfires: What we know about L.A.-area fires, what caused them, who is affected and more by Tim Stelloh, Marlene Lenthang, Rebecca Cohen and Phil Helsel—NBC News)

Climate change is showing its claws: The world is getting hotter, resulting in severe hurricanes, thunderstorms and floods—Munich RE)

Shaping the Future of Wildfire Insurance in California: New Insights from the Most Comprehensive Wildfire Risk Model in the Market by Firas Saleh—Moody's)

Insurers’ Rule Change Puts California Homeowners on the Hook for L.A. Fire by Jean Eaglesham and Sara Randazzo—The Wall Street Journal)

Commissioner Lara issues landmark regulation to expand insurance access for Californians amid growing climate risks—California Department of Insurance)

California Was Already in Home-Insurance Crisis Before Los Angeles Infernos by Jean Eaglesham and Joe Flint—The Wall Street Journal)

The World Is Getting Riskier. Americans Don’t Want to Pay for It. by Greg Ip—The Wall Street Journal)

Reinsurers little exposed to LA fires after retreat from disaster risks by Lee Harris—The Financial Times)

A Survey of Residual Market Plan Assessment and Recoupment Mechanisms by Nancy Watkins, Robert Lee, and Rehan Siddique—Milliman)

Related Episodes

481: How to Navigate the Crippling Home Insurance Crisis)

444: Natural Disasters: Are They Truly Increasing? )

Investments Mentioned

Stone Ridge High Yield Reinsurance Risk Premium fund (SHRMX)

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