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cover of episode Why Diversifying Your Portfolio Feels So Awful

Why Diversifying Your Portfolio Feels So Awful

2022/9/7
logo of podcast Money For the Rest of Us

Money For the Rest of Us

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David Stein
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我作为一名投资顾问,帮助大学捐赠基金和私人基金会进行投资组合多元化,这并非易事,因为部分投资已经非常成功。但如果这些投资不再成功呢?这正是多元化的意义所在。巴菲特曾说过,对于那些知道自己在做什么的人来说,多元化投资意义不大;多元化是针对无知的保护。如果你不知道如何分析企业,那么多元化投资是一种合理的方法;但如果你知道如何分析企业,那么持有大量股票就显得疯狂了。 大多数人,包括大多数专业投资者,都没有分析企业并提前判断其定价错误的能力,这就是我们投资指数基金和ETF的原因。多元化投资是对无知的保护,因为我们不知道未来会发生什么,所以我们会进行多元化投资,即使这意味着我们会错过一些表现更好的资产类别。美国股票并不总是跑赢非美国股票,历史数据表明,非美国股票在某些时期表现更好。股票收益由三个因素驱动:股息现金流、现金流增长和投资者对收益和股息的支付意愿。 我们进行多元化投资是因为我们不知道未来会发生什么,即使这意味着我们会错过一些表现更好的资产类别。过去五年,非美国股票跑输美国股票的主要原因是估值下降和盈利增长较慢。美国股票未来十年可能跑赢全球其他市场,但我对此并不完全确定,一些股票的估值很有吸引力。我愿意持有部分多元化投资,以防万一,即使短期内会带来痛苦。如果你能够分析企业并识别被低估的股票,那么你可以集中投资,但不要把所有资金都放在一个篮子里;不要盲目多元化,要理解合理的回报需要什么条件。 如果你是退休人士,应该进一步多元化投资,不要完全依赖投资组合,获得一些有保障的收入来源,以降低风险。多元化投资会让人感觉不好,因为总有一些资产的表现会更好,但最终,不同资产的回报会相互抵消,并有望达到我们的长期回报目标。

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Shownotes Transcript

Warren Buffet said, "Diversification makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they’re doing." He also said, "Diversification is a protection against ignorance..." Most of us need that protection against ignorance, yet diversification often makes us feel bad when some of our holdings don't do as well as others. We make the case why we should diversify anyway.

Topics covered:

  • Warren Buffet says it's crazy to own more than 30 stocks, but Berkshire Hathaway owns 48 stocks
  • What does it mean to analyze a business
  • How have U.S. stocks performed relative to non-U.S. stocks long-term
  • What has driven the outperformance of U.S. stocks and what has to happen for it to continue
  • What are examples of diversification plays just in case the U.S. falters

For more information on this episode click here).

Show Notes

Warren Buffett and Diversification—GrahamValue.com)

The Complete Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio by John Divine U.S. News)

The Business Cycle Is Different Than The Economic Cycle - Crestmont Research)

EU Natural Gas—Trading Economics)

Related Episodes

254: Should You Be 100% Invested In Stocks?)

275: Are You Over Diversified?)

364: Should You Hedge Your International Stock Exposure Against Currency Fluctuations?)

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