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Your Nation's National Debt: 5 Things You Need to Know

2023/1/11

Money For the Rest of Us

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David Stein

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David Stein: 本期节目探讨了美国、英国和日本的国家债务问题，以及各国可能采取的应对策略。演讲者分析了债务规模、利率变化、经济增长与债务可持续性的关系，以及量化宽松政策的局限性。他指出，衡量国家债务的关键不在于其绝对规模，而在于其相对于经济规模的大小以及政府的偿债能力。在经济衰退期间，国家债务往往会大幅增加，而经济繁荣时期则应加强财政纪律，控制财政赤字。他还分析了债务持有者和债务货币计价方式的重要性，以及各国降低债务与GDP比率的五种方法：经济增长、紧缩政策、违约、高通胀和金融抑制。演讲者强调，量化宽松政策并非解决国家债务危机的长期方案，它可能导致通货膨胀和利率上升，从而增加债务的可持续性风险。

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This chapter explores the current state of national debt in the US, UK, and Japan. It highlights the increasing US national debt nearing its ceiling, the UK's market reaction to tax cuts, and Japan's surprise announcement regarding its yield curve control policy. The importance of debt relative to the economy's size is emphasized.

US national debt approaching $31.4 trillion, nearing the debt ceiling
UK interest rates spiked due to market reaction to spending proposals
Bank of Japan widened the tolerance band for 10-year Japanese government bonds
Japan's public debt is over 250% of GDP, the highest among developed countries
Interest payments on debt relative to GDP are much lower in Japan compared to the US despite higher debt-to-GDP ratio

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We analyze the worrisome national debt situation in the U.S., UK, and Japan and consider what will determine the likelihood of default

Topics covered include:

How big is the national debt in the U.S., UK, and Japan
Why Japan and UK interest rates have increased
When do federal government debts jump the most
What two numbers are key to whether a level of national debt is sustainable
What are five ways indebted countries have reduced the relative size of their debt
Why quantitative easing is not a solution to a national debt crisis

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Show Notes

Debt to the Penny—U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data)

Federal Debt and the Debt Limit in 2022—Congressional Research Service)

Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? by Ricardo Reis—London School of Economics and Political Science)

UK government debt and deficit: June 2022—Office for National Statistics)

Japan's Experience with Yield Curve Control by Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard—Liberty Street Economics)

What is the national debt?—U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data)

Major Foreign Holder of Treasury Securities—Treasury International Capital System, U.S. Treasury)