A look at how Medicaid cuts could alter one state
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The U.S. and U.K. reach a new trade deal from Marketplace. I'm Nancy Marshall-Genzer in for David Boncaccio. First, we'll get lots of new data this week. The stock market is also on a roll. We're joined now by Julia Coronado. She's founder and president of Macro Policy Perspectives and a professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Good morning, Julia.

Good morning. This is a short but busy week. We'll get a number of reports on the labor market with the big jobs report on Thursday. What will you be looking for in the tea leaves of all that data? So job growth has been slowing in the U.S. and we expect continued slowing. Most economists are looking for a number closer to

100,000 jobs created down from, say, 140,000 last month and much stronger numbers last year. Is there a jobs benchmark the Federal Reserve is looking for? So if we see job creation below, say, 100,000, would that nudge Fed officials toward a rate cut next month?

Well, that's a tricky question because the jobs growth is expected to slow in part because immigration is slowing. And when immigration slows, there's fewer workers to hire. And that's not necessarily a problem. It just means the U.S. labor market will grow slower. So we use the unemployment rate as the guide to whether the labor market is actually weakening. If that's rising, that tells you that

labor supply isn't strong enough to absorb labor demand. And that is expected to tick up to

to 4.3%, 4.3% from 4.2% where it's been for the last three months. We had a nice stock market rally last week. Which companies are leading the way now? Well, it was a little bit broader based last week. There's some optimism on the trade front that maybe some deals will be forthcoming. And of course, there's a fiscal package working its way through Congress. Still, the valuations are very concentrated in tech names.

And again, there's a little bit of a disconnect between an economy that's slowing down and a stock market that's heating up. Usually technology is used to explain that tension. Julia Coronado is founder and president of Macro Policy Perspectives and a professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Well, thank you, Julia. It's my pleasure.

A new deal reducing tariffs between the US and UK is in effect this morning. It gives British car producers preferential access to the world's biggest consumer market. American producers of some agricultural products, including beef, will now be able to sell in the UK. Here's more from the BBC's World correspondent, Joe Inwood. This deal means UK motor manufacturers will be able to sell up to 100,000 cars a year into the US with a tariff of 10%.

a significant advantage over their international competitors. Other goods will also face a flat 10% import tax. But the deal, which was signed at the G7 two weeks ago, doesn't yet include the promised details for steel or aluminium. In return, up to 1.4 billion litres of US ethanol could arrive in the UK tariff-free, along with 13,000 tonnes of US beef. The UK government has previously insisted that UK food standards will not be compromised.

That's Jo Inwood with our news partners, the BBC. Canada has cancelled a digital services tax targeting U.S. technology firms just hours before it was due to take effect. The proposed tax had led President Trump to suspend trade talks between the two countries. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the announcement allows Canada to resume trade negotiations with the U.S. with the goal of reaching a deal by July 21st.

This Marketplace podcast is supported by Dell. The Black Friday in July event from Dell Technologies is here. There's never been a better time to upgrade. Now's your chance for great offers on popular, trusted technology.

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Upgrade for a limited time only at Dell.com slash deals. That's Dell.com slash deals. President Trump's big tax and spending bill could make sweeping changes to Medicaid, the joint federal state health insurance program for 70 million low-income and disabled people across the U.S. Alex Olgin takes a look at what this could mean for the most recent state to expand Medicaid coverage.

Family physician Shannon Dowler says Medicaid has been a game changer for her patients in rural western North Carolina. She remembers caring for one particular farmer. A gentleman in his late 30s who had a terrible leg ulceration that would not heal.

he couldn't afford the care and the medicine he needed. That is, until he got coverage when the state expanded Medicaid in 2023. He went from being someone at risk for having his leg amputated and being on permanent disability to someone who is fully back to work on his farm. Covering an additional 660,000 North Carolinians also injects federal dollars into the state's economy, an estimated $8 billion each year.

Brian Floyd is COO for a nine-hospital system in a rural part of the state. He says Medicaid funds help shore up finances. It is purely a lifeline. It means the difference between red and black ink. Floyd says he was working on plans to reopen a shuttered emergency room in a remote corner of eastern North Carolina. But the budget bill has thrown all of this into question.

The changes Congress is considering put hundreds of rural hospitals across the country in precarious positions. In North Carolina, it would erase all of the Medicaid expansion and raise the price of private insurance on healthcare.gov, making it unaffordable for another quarter million people.

Former North Carolina Secretary of Health Cody Kinsley says rural areas would be hardest hit. People are just feeling frustrated about how that's kind of a punch in the gut. Kinsley is now a senior policy advisor with Johns Hopkins University. He worries about the ripple effects on rural doctors, nurses, and other health care workers. It means that people lose employment that sustains them and their families in those communities and therefore lose their ability to spend money and support local businesses.

Still, Michael Cannon, with the libertarian think tank the Cato Institute, says the tweaks lawmakers are floating actually don't go far enough. I think our Medicaid problems are going to get worse before they get better. Cannon thinks Congress should, yes, cut Medicaid spending, but also think more radically and shift who controls health care dollars from the government to consumers. And it's only then that the health sector will start giving consumers higher quality health care at a lower price. That's right.

That's not on the table right now. The reality of the cuts that are on the table mean millions will lose coverage but still need care. I'm Alex Olgin for Marketplace. And I'm Nancy Marshall-Genzer with the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

Hey there, it's Ryan, co-host of Million Bazillion, a podcast that answers your kids' big questions about money. This week, we're kicking it old school and taking questions from Million Bazillionaires in this super special show. I was wondering how much people in the government, like the president, make and how do they decide? How do airlines determine the price of a ticket? Where did the penny get its name? Plus, Bridget and I put some old cassette tapes to good use. Listen to Million Bazillion wherever you get your podcasts.