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cover of episode Betting coins on the conclave

Betting coins on the conclave

2025/5/6
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Marketplace Morning Report

AI Deep Dive Transcript
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A
Amy Scott
D
David Brancaccio
E
Elizabeth Troval
F
Father Tom Daley
J
Jennifer Pak
N
Nova Safo
Topics
David Brancaccio: OpenAI,这家全球领先的人工智能公司,在其向营利性公司转型的过程中遭遇了重大阻碍。最初,OpenAI作为非营利组织成立,旨在将人工智能技术用于造福人类。然而,巨额的投资需求迫使公司寻求外部投资,这引发了与早期投资者,例如Elon Musk,之间的冲突,最终导致诉讼。为了解决这一问题,OpenAI计划将其盈利部门设立为一家公共利益公司,以平衡商业利益和社会责任。这反映了人工智能公司在发展过程中面临的复杂挑战,即如何在追求商业成功的同时,确保技术不被滥用,并为社会带来积极影响。 Nova Safo: 德国政坛近期发生剧烈震荡。保守党领袖Friedrich Merz在议会第一轮投票中未能当选为新任领导人,这在二战后尚属首次,对Merz本人以及德国政局都造成了不小的冲击。虽然Merz仍有机会在后续投票中胜出,但这起事件凸显了德国政治格局的复杂性和不确定性,也对德国的经济和社会稳定带来了一定的影响。 Elizabeth Troval: 全球范围内,人们对即将到来的教皇选举投注了巨额资金。这一现象反映了人们对这一重大事件的关注,以及预测市场在预测未来事件中的作用。虽然美国体育博彩公司不允许此类投注,但许多美国人通过Kalshi等金融交易平台参与其中。预测市场对教皇选举结果的预测可能具有一定的参考价值,但同时也需要注意,一些无法量化的因素,例如圣灵的作用,是市场无法预测的。 Father Tom Daley: 教皇选举是一个神圣的仪式,圣灵在其中扮演着至关重要的角色。教廷的选举过程并非单纯的政治角逐,而是寻求上帝的旨意,选择最适合领导教会的人选。这种神圣的因素是任何预测市场都无法完全捕捉到的,也是理解教皇选举结果的关键。 Jennifer Pak: 中国政府为了应对日益严峻的低生育率问题,出台了一系列鼓励生育的政策,包括提供现金补贴和延长产假。然而,这些措施的效果并不显著,许多女性仍然不愿生育更多孩子,因为养育孩子的成本高昂,而且她们担心生育会影响自己的职业发展。中国女性在职场中面临着性别歧视,这使得她们在生育与职业发展之间难以平衡。 Amy Scott: 气候变化投资领域经历了起起伏伏。曾经,华尔街似乎致力于解决气候问题,但随后遭遇了强烈反弹,导致气候投资的努力受挫。这反映了气候变化问题在政治和经济领域的复杂性,以及不同利益集团之间的博弈。 supporting_evidences Nova Safo: 'The key stock index in Frankfurt, Germany, is down 1.1 percent right now after a political thunderbolt today from Berlin.' Elizabeth Troval: '133 Catholic cardinals are expected in the Sistine Chapel tomorrow to start choosing the next pope, and people around the world are placing millions of dollars in bets over who they think will get the two-thirds majority required to be the Catholic Church's next leader.' Father Tom Daley: 'A really big factor that no one talks about because it's hard to talk about and you certainly can't bet on is the role that the Holy Spirit plays.' Jennifer Pak: "China's offering cash and more parental leave to encourage people to have more kids there." Amy Scott: 'Five years ago, it seemed like Wall Street was working on it until a backlash upended everything.'

Deep Dive

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Artificial intelligence for humanity, for profit, or something else. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. One of the biggest firms in artificial intelligence has hit a roadblock in its campaign to become a for-profit company. OpenAI, maker of ChatGPT, has hit the hurdle. Marketplace's Nova Safo explains. OpenAI's nonprofit board is a vestige of when it was created a decade ago to build artificial intelligence to, quote, benefit humanity.

But OpenEI has needed tens of billions of dollars in investments to get there, and the investors who footed the bill have wanted to secure a stake in future profits and to have more of a say in OpenEI's governance.

So in December, CEO Sam Altman said the chat GPT maker would convert itself into a for-profit corporation with its original non-profit board becoming a shareholder. That prompted a lawsuit from Elon Musk, who was among OpenAI's early backers and its current rival with his own AI company. Now a new plan. The non-profit board will remain in charge of

The part of OpenEI that takes in investor money and runs ChatGPT is to become a subsidiary structured as a public benefit corporation. Those are certified to have a mission to do a public good while also making a profit for shareholders.

I'm Novosafo for Marketplace. The key stock index in Frankfurt, Germany, is down 1.1 percent right now after a political thunderbolt today from Berlin. The leader of the conservative party there, Friedrich Merz, was not elected the leader of the country in a first round of voting by members of parliament. Merz needed to cobble together a coalition, but no. It's a first for Germany since the Second World War and an embarrassment for Merz, but he could still become chancellor in subsequent rounds.

The bond market is steady here now as the Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow to consider what to do about tariffs that can be both inflationary and recessionary at the same time. Our coverage will be in the Marketplace Morning podcast. S&P futures are down six-tenths of a percent now.

133 Catholic cardinals are expected in the Sistine Chapel tomorrow to start choosing the next pope, and people around the world are placing millions of dollars in bets over who they think will get the two-thirds majority required to be the Catholic Church's next leader. Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval has more on the papal betting markets. People have been betting on who becomes the next pope for centuries, says John Holden with Indiana University. But...

We've seen a much bigger expansion of betting on the Pope globally as technology has gotten better and allowed word to spread quickly. Though people bets are not allowed in U.S. sportsbooks, many Americans are on Kalshi, a financial exchange and prediction market. Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the frontrunner there, which Victor Matheson with College of the Holy Cross says could be a good predictor.

Betting markets and prediction markets actually do a pretty good job at estimating what's going to happen. Though there's one thing markets can't account for, says Father Tom Daley with the St. Charles Borromeo Seminary. A really big factor that no one talks about because it's hard to talk about and you certainly can't bet on is the role that the Holy Spirit plays. Because, he says, cardinals are meant to elect the person God wants to be the successor.

I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace. There's even a kind of fantasy football thing getting lots of global interest. If you go to the site, it reads, who will be the next pontiff? It goes on in Italian, take up the challenge to bring out the Vatican expert within you.

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You could say, just my luck. But you should say, like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. And we'll help get you back in business. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. One thing in common with U.S. and China, slowing birth rates. That may stress the environment less, but that's fewer people working and paying taxes to pay for populations getting older.

China's offering cash and more parental leave to encourage people to have more kids there. Marketplace's China correspondent Jennifer Pak has been spending time with families in southern China's Dongguan City. It's a hot afternoon at a public square in Dongguan. This toddler and his mom, Mo Guilan, are taking a stroll. I won't consider a second child for health and financial reasons.

China used to have a one-child policy. Now up to three are allowed. But Mo Guilan says even with one child, her family's already taken a financial hit. There was nobody to help me take care of the baby after maternity leave, so I had to quit my factory job. A lot of women worry about being able to keep their jobs after giving birth.

Human Resources Executive Ai-Ring Yang says when she gave birth back in 2011, she was nervous about taking the three-month maternity leave that she was entitled to. Once I took that long maternity leave, my work was given to another person, and I worried that I could be replaced.

To make sure she didn't miss out on too much, she would go to the office during her maternity leave. Now she's in a senior HR role and a proud mom of a teenager. After having one child, I didn't want more. It's like mission accomplished. Oh!

Because employers bear the cost of benefits like maternity leave, women can be discriminated against in the hiring process, says mom of one Peng Lu. At interviews, employers would ask my age, if I'm married yet, and if I have any children. China's government officially bans such lines of questioning, but it still happens. Mom, I'm here!

Luckily, Peng Lu landed a job in the public sector, where women's rights are better protected. But even with that, she decided to quit after having her son and move back closer to her family so she wouldn't have to pay for expensive child care. Now she's planning a second child. Some cities are offering thousands of dollars in subsidies to anyone having three children.

Does that tempt Peng Lu? Probably not, she says. Ex-factory worker Mo Guilan feels the same. I won't give birth to a child just for a few thousand dollars. Raising kids, she says, costs way more than that.

In Dongguan City, I'm Jennifer Pak for Marketplace. With the Federal Reserve starting its two-day meeting on interest rates today concluding tomorrow, listen to the half-hour edition of Marketplace with my colleague Kai Risdahl on many public radio stations, of course, later today, or streamable from our homepage, marketplace.org. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio with the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

Can we invest our way out of the climate crisis? Five years ago, it seemed like Wall Street was working on it until a backlash upended everything. So there's a lot of alignment between the dark money right and the oil industry on this effort. I'm Amy Scott, host of How We Survive, a podcast from Marketplace. In this season, we investigate the rise, fall, and reincarnation of climate-conscious investing.

Listen to How We Survive wherever you get your podcasts.