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Global growth set for decline, as ballooning government debts take hold

2025/6/3

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Alvaro Pereira

Faisal Islam

Katie Silver

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Alvaro Pereira: 作为OECD的首席经济学家，我认为全球经济正面临挑战，我们下调了几乎所有国家的经济增长预期。贸易不确定性显著增加，商业和消费者信心有所下降。尽管如此，我们仍然预测全球经济将保持一定的韧性，预计今明两年的增长率约为2.9%。受关税影响最大的国家，如美国、加拿大和墨西哥，以及那些非常依赖贸易增长的国家，其经济预测降幅最大。因此，我认为避免进一步的贸易分裂是首要任务。我们应该优先恢复投资，因为自全球金融危机以来，投资已经下降了约22%。同时，我也强调财政纪律的重要性，因为我们现在的债务水平是80年来最高的，无论贫富国家，债务都相当高，而且支出压力正在增加。过去几十年，由于更多的贸易、更少的贸易壁垒和技术发展，世界各地的贫困率大幅下降，每个国家的生活水平都大幅提高。现在的首要任务应该是各国团结起来，继续对话，特别是达成贸易协议，从而为我们的人民带来更多的就业、更多的繁荣和更美好的未来。

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From the BBC World Service: The global economy is losing steam, according to the OECD, which now forecasts growth to fall to just 2.9% this year and next. The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development — which represents most of the world’s advanced economies — issued its warning as trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to grow.

Global growth set for decline, as ballooning government debts take hold 06:26 Share

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Global growth set for decline, as ballooning government debts take hold