The U.S. and Ukraine strike a minerals deal
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Marketplace listeners get special access to one month of Gamma Pro free with promo code marketplace. Gamma, how good ideas get into the universe. The US and Ukraine have finally struck a minerals deal. Live from the UK, this is the Marketplace Morning Report from the BBC World Service. I'm Leanna Byrne. Good morning.

The US has signed a deal with Kyiv to share profits from the future sale of Ukraine's mineral and energy reserves after months of fraught negotiations. The agreement marks a shift from military aid towards an economic partnership, which aims to incentivise the US to continue to invest in Ukraine's defence and reconstruction. Here's how Ukrainian lawmaker Lisa Yasko from the ruling servant of the People's Party responded. So there are good parts in it, which includes that Ukraine

We are not giving up anything from Ukraine. We don't grant anyone exclusive rights to Ukrainian minerals. But that's a fair deal where the United States are actually investing in the reconstruction fund and they will have 50/50 access to the mineral deals.

There are more interesting parts in it, as for instance, these revenues will not be taxed in Ukraine or United States.

And what is important for us is that this deal is not actually a debt obligation to the United States, as it was discussed before. But not everyone in Washington is convinced. Democratic Congressman Brad Sherman says it's unlikely to deliver much for U.S. taxpayers. Let's look at it this way. For well over 50 years, the communists looked all over Ukraine and determined what minerals were worthy of exploiting.

Now, for the last 35 years, capitalists have done the same thing. So this deal only applies to deposits of minerals that neither the communists nor the capitalists thought were worth exploiting. And with the country still at war, how will any of this actually happen? Gracelyn Baskerin at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies says progress will take time.

It will not be easy to even to do the work. There's so many stages of development that we have first, right? We've got to do a mapping. We've got early stage project development. That all takes time. A lot of energy infrastructure has been damaged in the war. So half of the country's power stations have been damaged and mining is an incredibly energy intensive sector.

So there's a lot of elements of development that have to happen here before it would yield actual minerals coming out of the ground. Just for context, generally globally, it's 18 years to develop a new mine into production. That's four and a half presidential administrations in the United States. It's a long-term effort. Gracelyn Basker in there. Now, let's do the numbers. ♪

The Bank of Japan held interest rates steady but cut its growth outlook sharply, citing uncertainty from US tariffs. Still, it says inflation should stay on track. The IMF has downgraded its forecast for the Middle East and North Africa, warning trade tensions will slow growth more than expected next year.

Now, Facebook's parent company Meta says its users could face a materially worse experience after a major regulatory blow from the European Commission. EU authorities fined Meta $230 million, saying its consent or pay model breached a new law. The BBC's Lily Jamali has more. The consent or pay model leaves users to choose between paying for a monthly subscription or consenting to being tracked using their data.

Last week, the European Commission ruled that this approach that was suggested by Meta violates the Digital Markets Act, which aims to promote competition by regulating the big tech gatekeepers, which includes Meta. Now, on Wednesday, Meta told investors and analysts that it expects that this decision by the European Commission

will likely prompt it to make changes that could make the user experience for European users worse and could also have a materially adverse impact on its own business. One analyst I've been speaking to today said he thinks that Meta is trying to turn the tide of public opinion so that they push back against the regulatory approach.

Lily Jamali there. Now, manufacturing in China is down. No great surprise, but it's fallen more sharply than economists predicted amid a trade war with the US. So how are businesses there faring? The BBC's Laura Baker has been to the world's largest wholesale market in the Chinese city of Yiwu. This is the sound of Chinese traders trying to stay ahead of their local competition.

In the cavernous lobby of the world's largest shopping mall, even before the shutters are open, they are reciting key phrases they can use with their customers. Ten years ago, they mostly traded in English. These days, they need Spanish, Arabic and a little French.

We are in Yiwu Wholesale Market. This is the biggest wholesale market in the world and it has hundreds of stalls selling various toys. Oh, I'm just being showered by bubbles.

Things have changed here since Donald Trump was last in power. The US president's first trade war taught Yiwu a lesson. There are buyers elsewhere. As trader Hu Qianqiang explains. What do you think of Trump? Trump, he's a joke. We used to have buyers from the US. Now we don't care. We have rich buyers from elsewhere. Doing business with them is good.

The 75,000 stallholders in Iwu are no longer as reliant on the US as they once were. Eight years ago, 20% of Chinese exports were sold to the US. That figure is now 14%. Instead, the halls are filled with buyers from the Middle East, Russia and South America. Oscar is from Colombia. China is a big country, a big people, a big food, a big...

Around 80% of all US toys come from China. And seller Lin Xu Peng believes this trade war will hurt Americans more than the Chinese.

I hear there are lots of protests in the US. Most of their products came from here. Do you think they need us? Of course they do. Talks between the two sides are still not underway, according to China's foreign ministry, despite Donald Trump's assertion that he has spoken to President Xi.

Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel from the People's Liberation Army, says Beijing will not blink first. In China, we say we have to let the bullet fly for a moment. That means right now, in the Falkirk War, we do not know what would come next. And I believe this kind of tit-for-tat will just last for a while, maybe one or two months.

While the US president waits for his Chinese counterpart to pick up the phone, the city of Yiwu is looking for new customers even as darkness falls. And even though it's peak monsoon season, the rain is pelting down, trade is in full flow. Everyone's haggling after the best price.

The belief here is that even though there will be short-term pain, in the long term, China, not America, will grow stronger. In China, I'm the BBC's Laura Bicker for Marketplace. And that's it from the Marketplace Morning Report from the BBC World Service. I'm Leanna Byrne. Have a great day and thanks so much for listening.

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