Where the big tax cut and spending bill stands
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Tune in and subscribe to Threat Vector wherever you get your podcasts. On this Tuesday morning, no big vote yet in the Senate on that whopper of a tax cut and spending bill. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. In the Senate, they've been churning through amendments like short order cooks and a 24-hour greasy spoon. Marketplace's senior Washington correspondent, Kimberly Adams, is following all this. Good morning. Good morning, David.

Again, Votorama, what have our senators been doing all night? So as part of the rules of reconciliation, which is what's letting the GOP pass this bill without Democratic votes, senators can offer unlimited amendments. But the debate on each one is really short, like 10 minutes. So this gives senators a chance to change components of the bill, but it's also used as a messaging tool.

All right. So like speed dating, but with implications for 30 and 40 years. What are some of the amendments that have come up, Kimberly?

Democratic senators have been very clear that they're offering amendments that even if they know they're going to fail, they will highlight components of the bill that they think are harmful, especially cuts to social programs like Medicaid and SNAP. But some Republicans offered amendments as well. For example, Maine Senator Susan Collins had a failed amendment that would have increased the size of a proposed rural hospital fund and pay for it by raising taxes on higher incomes. But

But one successful amendment that passed 99 to 1 this morning removes a provision in the bill that would have banned states from regulating AI for a decade. OK, so AI and Republicans have the potential to pass the legislation without any votes from Democrats, but can only lose three votes in the Senate. What are some of the key sticking points that we're all watching for from GOP senators?

Yeah, some senators are really worried about those Medicaid cuts. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Senate version of the bill would result in almost 12 million people losing insurance over about a decade. And Senator Tom Tillis of North Carolina has already said he'll vote no because of that. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul says he'll vote no because of how much the bill would add to the deficit. And there are holdouts on other issues that could turn out to be that third vote.

Now, even if the Senate does go for this, many issues are already causing problems with the House of Representatives, but especially the deficit.

Right. The Senate GOP used some, shall we say, unique accounting measures to reduce the cost on paper of this bill from more than $4 trillion to about $440 billion. And fiscal hawks in the House are very much not on board with that. So it's definitely going to be an issue, even if the Senate Republicans can get this passed. House Republicans are also worried about the Senate's more severe cuts to Medicaid than their version, as well as harsher rollbacks of green energy tax credits.

All right. Green tax credits, Medicaid, a lot more. Marketplace's senior Washington correspondent, Kimberly Adams, thank you. You're welcome.

The S&P 500 stock index ended up 10.6 percent for the March to June quarter just ended. The Nasdaq went up 17.7 percent during all the tariff changes and inflation and recession talk. The U.S. dollar index is down 11.8 percent in the first half of the year. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall-Genzer has more.

Oxford Economics says the dollar is down around 10 percent since January, and it expects the greenback to continue losing value next year and in 2027. Oxford says talk of the dollar losing its status as the world's reserve currency is premature. Still, investors are

cautious amid all the uncertainty caused by President Trump's trade war. There are fears that import taxes could drive up inflation, causing the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer and slowing the economy. The S&P and Nasdaq, on the other hand, closed at record highs yesterday. Investors are happy that tariffs haven't caused inflation to spike yet.

Tech stocks are gaining ground as traders bet on advances in AI. All eyes will be on this week's jobs report on Thursday as traders look for signs that the job market is still healthy. I'm Nancy Marshall-Genzer for Marketplace.

And the New York Times shopping advice outlet called Wirecutter has been looking for the effective tariffs on tariffs off on 40 of the products they've evaluated. The upshot is a lot of prices have not changed yet. An Asics cheapo laptop got 7% more expensive and a Cuisinart kettle went up 20%. But an Ikea sofa stayed flat, as did Grazza olive oil and Earth-rated doggy poop bags. A

A strange one was a South Korean-made LG French door fridge. Wirecutter found the list price went up 39 percent, but its retail sale price stayed flat. Note that the comparison was mid-April to mid-June, and we may need to check back in late summer for medium-term tariff-to-consumer effects.

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This Marketplace podcast is supported by Mercury. Mercury is the fintech more than 200,000 businesses use to protect their money and power their financial workflows. Learn more at mercury.com.

Today, we'll get figures for new vehicle sales covering June as the Senate works on pulling federal tax credits for electric cars and a surprise proposal to raise the tax on new wind and solar projects. It is an uncertain time for electric vehicle buyers and makers. That said, a firm called QuantumScape, backed by Volkswagen, announced what it says is a major breakthrough in battery production. Solid state. Marketplace's Megan McCarty Carino explains.

Batteries need electrolytes to move ions between two electrodes. And in current EV batteries, those electrolytes are liquid or gel. The material that is used as that electrolyte contains oxygen and it's combustible.

Sam Abu-El-Samid at automotive market research firm Telemetry says even though EVs ignite less often than gas cars, the fires are harder to put out. Solid-state batteries significantly reduce that risk. They're also more energy-dense. You can have double the capacity, double the range.

Sounds pretty great, right? So why haven't we switched? Well, solid electrolytes present some manufacturing challenges, says Armagam Mentiram, an engineering professor at UT Austin. The solid electrolytes are all ceramic. They're very brittle. They're not flexible. They can crack.

Building large ceramic pieces that are thin, flat, and uniform is tough at scale. But QuantumScape says it's improved its process to make these ceramic parts and plans to start selling solid-state batteries to companies like Volkswagen by next year. I'm Megan McCarty Carino for Marketplace.

Our producers are Ariana Rosas and Erica Soderstrom. Our senior producer is Alex Schroeder. Our supervising senior producer is Meredith Gerritsen-Morby. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio, Marketplace Morning Report. From APM, American Public Media. Hey, everyone. I'm Rima Khez, and I'm excited to join Kimberly Adams on Make Me Smart.

Together, we'll unpack the day's news, whether it's a tariff switch up, the latest on Trump's immigration policy, or the future of clean energy. Join us each weekday so we can make sense of it all together, because none of us is as smart as all of us. Listen to Make Me Smart wherever you get your podcasts.