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cover of episode While China's growth beat expectations, tariffs still loom large

While China's growth beat expectations, tariffs still loom large

2025/4/16
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Marketplace Morning Report

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盛雷云:我观察到美国的高额关税短期内会对中国外贸和经济造成一些压力,但这不会改变中国经济长期向好的大趋势。中国经济拥有稳固的基础、强大的韧性和巨大的潜力。我们有实力、有能力、有信心应对外部挑战,实现既定发展目标。 我的观点基于中国经济的长期发展潜力和应对外部冲击的能力。我们有信心克服暂时的困难,继续保持经济的稳定增长。 Katie Silver:根据官方数据,中国第一季度经济增长5.4%,超出预期,这与中国今年约5%的增长目标相符。然而,这些数据来自北京,许多分析师和经济学家得出的数字并不总是相同。此外,我们观察到一种“提前购买”现象,即人们在高额关税实施前抢购中国产品,这可能导致数据出现偏差。中国还任命了新的国际贸易谈判代表李成钢,这在当前紧张的贸易环境下具有重要意义。 我的分析基于公开的经济数据和对市场趋势的观察。虽然官方数据显示经济增长强劲,但我认为需要谨慎看待,因为存在一些潜在的因素可能会影响经济的长期稳定。 Luke Wilson:本报告讨论了中国经济增长数据以及美国关税对中国经济的影响。数据显示,中国经济在第一季度增长强劲,但分析师警告称,由于美国关税的影响,第二季度经济增长可能会放缓。此外,我们还关注到中国制造商正在TikTok上直接向美国消费者推销产品,以绕过中间商,降低关税的影响。 作为主持人,我负责呈现不同观点和信息,并对相关事件进行客观报道。 Sky Canaves:中国制造商和平台正在TikTok上发布视频,鼓励美国消费者直接从中国工厂购买商品,绕过像Shein或Amazon这样的中间商,以节省开支。虽然直接从中国制造商购买商品是可行的,但也面临语言障碍、支付、交付保证和缺乏客户服务等挑战。这种做法既是为了规避关税,也是因为他们面临巨大的关税压力。 我的分析基于对市场趋势和消费者行为的观察。我认为,这种现象反映了中美贸易关系的复杂性以及中国制造商应对关税压力的策略。

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China's economy grew by 5.4% in Q1 2024, exceeding expectations. However, analysts predict a slowdown in Q2 due to the impact of President Trump's tariffs. Despite this, Chinese officials express confidence in the long-term economic outlook and have appointed a new international trade negotiator.
  • China's Q1 2024 GDP growth: 5.4%
  • Analysts predict Q2 slowdown due to tariffs
  • Appointment of Li Chenggang as new international trade negotiator

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China's growth beats expectations, but tariffs loom large. Live from the BBC World Service, this is the Marketplace Morning Report. I'm Luke Wilson, in for Leanna Byrne. Good morning.

China's National Bureau of Statistics says its economy grew by 5.4% in the first three months of this year, beating estimates. But analysts say the economy will slow down in the second quarter as the effects of President Trump's 145% tariffs on Chinese goods are felt. The Bureau's Deputy Commissioner, Sheng Leiyun, warned about the impact this morning, but says China can deal with them.

In the short term, the imposition of high tariffs by the United States will put certain pressures on our country's foreign trade and economy, but it will not change the general trend that China's economy will continue to improve in the long run. China's economy has a stable foundation, strong resilience and great potential. We have the strength, capability and confidence to face external challenges and achieve our set development goals.

Our business correspondent in Singapore, Katie Silver, joins me now. Hi, Katie. Hi, Luke. So talk us through these figures. What did we learn about the Chinese economy from this data? Well, according to the official data, they say that the economy grew 5.4% in the first three months of this year, and that beat expectations quite significantly. It was only expected to grow about 5.1%. And it

And it's certainly in line with Beijing's target for around 5% growth this year. And there's certainly been a lot of questions about whether or not they would be able to meet that target given global headwinds. Now, we do need to remember that, of course, these statistics come from Beijing. Many analysts and economists don't always come to the same numbers.

But what we do think seems to be going on is something known as front-loading, basically people buying up Chinese products ahead of the imposition of these hefty tariffs, which, of course, had been flagged by President Trump before he came into office. So the idea, I guess, being act quickly before the tariffs come into place, and therefore we're seeing this big surge. And we also heard from Beijing this morning that they've appointed a new international trade negotiator. How significant is that? Yeah.

Yes, so Li Chenggang is the Vice Minister of Commerce and a new top representative for international trade negotiation. I think it's fairly significant, especially during these times. And Li, from what we understand, he's worked at the China's Commerce Department since 2010, serving at one point as China's representative to the World Trade Organization. And also, interestingly, was involved in the negotiations with the White House during Trump's first term in office, those tariffs.

So it is certainly significant. And as I say, he does not have an enviable task trying to negotiate under the current climate. We're seeing tariffs, of course, now at the 145% mark. And with these threats when it comes to China's potential growth and how it may well impact that, he's certainly got his work cut out. Katie Silver, our business correspondent in Singapore, thanks for joining us on Marketplace. Thanks, Luke. Let's do the numbers. ♪

Shares in ASML, the world's biggest supplier of semiconductor-making equipment, are down more than 4.5% this morning after it missed expectations in its latest earnings. The company's CEO also warned that tariffs could affect demand for its chip-making machines. And the FTSE 100 in London is down more than four-tenths of a percent. Data out this morning shows UK inflation fell faster than expected in March to 2.6%.

With the potential impact of tariffs on people's minds, you might have started seeing videos on TikTok like this. There's nothing a Chinese factory can't make. Let's not be poisoned and misled by the market can pay any longer and be a real person. Buy a bag from our factory in China, see the real world. How to effortlessly browse Chinese website. As I shared so many brilliant Chinese wholesale website in my previous videos. In

Influencers are going viral on the platform by urging Americans to buy directly from Chinese manufacturers to undercut Donald Trump's tariffs. Sky Canaves, principal retail and e-commerce analyst at the research firm eMarketer, explains more.

So these TikToks are English-speaking representatives of platforms and manufacturers in China who are creating videos around how to save huge amounts of money by buying direct from factories in China, bypassing any intermediary platforms like Timu or Shein or Amazon and going straight to the source.

They're promoting a number of very specialized websites that we haven't really heard about before, as well as blogging.

better known platforms like taobao.com, which is the Chinese language marketplace run by Alibaba, as well as DHgate, which is a popular cross-border wholesale platform that has been a little bit on the radar of younger consumers on TikTok over the past couple of years because it shows a lot of knockoff or dupe products.

And it's had a little bit of surge in popularity among Gen Z and younger shoppers, but nothing like the rapid surge we've seen over the last couple of days. The offer of savings will be attractive to many shoppers, but is it really practical for US consumers to deal directly with Chinese manufacturers?

It would be possible, but it would be challenging. Everything from the language barrier to the payment to the delivery guarantees to the lack of customer service could present formidable obstacles. I think a platform like the H-Gate has surged over the last couple of days because it is an intermediary. So there is a bit more level of trust for consumers that use the platform. So what's the aim behind all this? Is it just about undermining tariffs?

There is certainly an element of mocking how much U.S. consumers pay for products. But I also think it shows that there's an appeal by Chinese manufacturers and suppliers to go direct to the consumer because they're under enormous pressure from tariffs.

Sky Canava's there. And finally, the remote Pacific island nation of Tuvalu has unveiled its first ever ATMs. Five cash points have been installed, including at the airport and the headquarters of the National Bank. The unveiling was marked by a ceremony attended by the country's Prime Minister. I'm Luke Wilson with the Marketplace Morning Report from the BBC World Service. Music

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