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Who comes next?

2025/6/26
logo of podcast Marketplace Morning Report

Marketplace Morning Report

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Ambra
B
Benjamin Uchert
B
Brian Reeling
E
Elizabeth Braugh
I
Ian Ralby
J
Jerome Powell
现任美联储主席,曾任投资银行家和律师,领导美联储应对COVID-19疫情和控制通胀。
J
Jonathan Gruber
J
Joshua Tallis
P
President Trump
T
Tomer Renan
Topics
President Trump: 我认为鲍威尔先生非常不称职,他未能有效管理货币政策,导致美国经济受到不必要的阻碍。我正在考虑更换他,并且已经缩小了候选人范围,希望能找到更合适的人选来领导美联储,以更好地服务于美国的经济利益。我希望新的领导人能够更加灵活地调整利率,以应对当前的经济挑战,并促进经济增长。 Brian Reeling: 考虑到鲍威尔先生不太可能获得连任,他可能不会感受到来自特朗普政府的直接压力。这意味着他可以更加独立地根据经济数据和美联储的判断来制定货币政策,而不必过于担心政治因素的干扰。然而,市场可能会对潜在的领导层变动做出反应,因为新的领导人可能会带来不同的政策方向。 Jerome Powell: 我认为目前美国经济状况良好,我们有足够的空间来观察特朗普总统的关税政策对经济的影响。这些关税可能会导致物价上涨,但我们需要更多的数据来评估其具体影响。美联储将继续密切关注经济形势,并在必要时采取适当的行动,以维持物价稳定和充分就业。我们致力于保持货币政策的独立性,并根据经济的实际需求做出决策。

Deep Dive

Chapters
President Trump's public criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has led to market speculation about a potential replacement. Powell's term isn't over until next year, but Trump's dissatisfaction and reported narrowing of potential replacements are impacting the U.S. dollar and market confidence.
  • President Trump's public criticism of Jerome Powell
  • Speculation of Powell's replacement before his term ends
  • Impact on U.S. dollar and market confidence

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
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Granger, for the ones who get it done. President Trump moves markets in part by calling America's central banker names. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. A published report is moving financial markets that President Trump could announce a successor to, but not yet replace, the powerful chair of the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell's term isn't over until next year. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall-Genzer has more.

President Trump has made no secret of his displeasure with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He wants the Fed to lower interest rates right away. Yesterday at a NATO press conference, he had this to say about Powell. I think he's a very stupid person, actually. The president added that he's narrowed his pick to replace Powell down to three or four people. Powell's term as chair ends next spring. Brian Reeling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that

makes it easier for Powell to resist Trump's pressure campaign. Obviously, he is extremely unlikely to be re-nominated. So, you know, I'm not sure he feels a lot of pressure from the political rhetoric. In congressional testimony this week, Powell said the Fed is in good shape to wait on an interest rate cut. He wants to see how Trump's tariffs affect the economy and says they could start driving up prices this summer. I'm Nancy Marshall Gensler for Marketplace.

The U.S. dollar index versus other currencies is down a full percentage point since the latest Trump attack on Powell. That's in part to bet the U.S. economy could get weaker. The dollar is down 10 percent this year. The flip side is a weaker dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper, easier to sell in foreign countries.

The cost of health care is ever-growing. New government estimates show it'll go from 17 to 20 percent of total U.S. economic output within eight years. This says Republican lawmakers debate how deeply they want to cut health care programs like Medicaid as part of the big tax-cutting and spending plan.

The House version of the bill means 11 million people could lose health insurance. Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval looks at why the tab for health care keeps getting bigger. Health care spending is expected to outpace GDP growth in the coming years, at least through 2033, according to new estimates by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. One reason why? We do see the baby boomers retiring.

Benjamin Uchert with Texas A&M University says as the silver tsunami ages, people will utilize more health care. Treatment is also getting pricier, and you have to factor in the cost of health innovation, says MIT's Jonathan Gruber. We're just inventing cool new stuff that costs more money.

Gruber says growth in health care spending isn't necessarily a bad thing. It drives employment and can lead to new, life-saving cures for disease. The problem is that society is unwilling to pony up to pay those costs. Consider the current debate over cuts to Medicaid spending proposed by Republican lawmakers. To kick people off health insurance, we'll spend less on health care and people will die. And that's a tradeoff that I think

The U.S. voter needs to recognize that these politicians are making. One way or the other, he says, when it comes to their health, Americans will have to pay. I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace.

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A group of tanker ships used largely by Iran and Russia to sell oil on the global market to get around international sanctions is growing in size. The Shadow Fleet is now 17 percent of all international tankers, according to a report from Allianz. Reporter Daniel Ackerman has more.

In the early 2010s, the West slapped big sanctions on Iran's energy exports. So to keep its oil revenue flowing, Iran turned to the so-called shadow fleet, says Elizabeth Braugh, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

I spoke with her and other experts at a conference on the topic this week. It really began as a way for Iran to export and import because it was under so many sanctions. She says Russia now also uses shadow vessels to sell its oil. The country was sanctioned for invading Ukraine in 2022.

Ambra says the size of the international shadow fleet has more than doubled since then. They are essentially like a tumor on the global shipping system. These shadow vessels use all kinds of shadowy tactics. They spoof GPS, for example, to claim their loading oil at an Iraqi port when they're actually in Iran.

They carry fake insurance documents, and they transfer their cargo from one ship to another to another just to confuse anyone watching by satellite. Ambrose says these vessels aren't exactly in ship shape.

They are often old. They should really be scrapped. An old vessel that is poorly maintained poses significant risks of accidents and incidents, just like an old car. There have already been some minor collisions and oil spills caused by Shadow Fleet ships. Tomer Renan, a maritime risk analyst at Lloyd's List Intelligence, fears that a major environmental disaster could be next.

It's a massive accident that's waiting to happen. And because these ships are underinsured at best, cleanup costs aren't borne by the operators of the shadow vessels, says Joshua Tallis with the Center for Naval Analyses.

All of those costs are going to fall on the international community and most likely quite heavily off the coast of whatever country that accident actually happens on. And the continued growth of these risks shows that Western sanctions just haven't had their desired effect, says Ian Ralby, CEO of the maritime consultancy IR Concilium.

No amount of sanctions have put Russia, Iran, North Korea, or anyone out of business. Iran in particular has been very successful in finding ways of using the maritime space to continue to move oil and fuel illegally. He says intercepting these shadow ships isn't a great option because that would go against the principle of freedom of navigation on the high seas.

Most Navy's Coast Guards and Marine Police forces around the world are not going to have an impetus to try to take on this kind of situation, particularly given the extreme political blowback that would accompany any kind of interdiction. So for now, the Shadow Fleet keeps on sailing. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

And we've been following President Trump's family company taking orders for a mobile phone service offering a U.S.-made smartphone. We reported on experts doubting a made-in-the-USA phone was possible anytime soon. Now the publication The Verge noticed the promised T1-8002 phone is no longer being touted as U.S.-manufactured. The made-in-the-USA banner is gone from the Trump mobile website.

Now the promise is, quote, designed with American values in mind. The phone screen is now a bit shorter, and the amount of onboard RAM first listed as 12 gigs is now a mystery. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio, Marketplace Morning Report. From APM, American Public Media.

This Old House has been America's most trusted source for all things DIY and home improvement for decades. And now we're on the radio and on demand. I think you're breaking into this wall regardless. I was hoping you wouldn't say that. I need to go and get some whiskey, I think. I would get the whiskey for sure. Subscribe to This Old House Radio Hour from LAist Studios, wherever you get your podcasts.