The Coming Generative AIPocalypse
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In the last episode of walks you through how generation is hit ceiling and how big tech has burn billions of dollars tracing the technology that really isn't gona give them the returns they got from the smart phone and cloud computing revolutions. Not that that's gonna stop in this episode.

I'm going to walk you through the potentially massive problems they have ahead, the ones they have created by building these massive supercomputers, the ones necessary to capture this imaginary demand of this kind of bulshed AI revolution. And i'm gna try and guess what might happen next. All right.

So the A I boom helped the S M, P five hundred hit record levels in twenty twenty four, largely thanks to chip join NVIDIA, a company that makes both the gp is necessary to train in run, generate AI and the software architecture behind them, as well as some of the service parts too. Part of in videos is remarkable. Growth has been its ability to capitalized on CUDA architecture software there that lets you do complex computing on GPU, rather than simply using to render video games or complex through the images.

Someone gonna email and say that that's partially wrong. Just bear with me. And of course, one of the videos, other things they do is continually create new G, P, S.

To self for tens of thousands of dollars to take companies that want to burn billions of dollars on generative, which is LED in video stock, to pop more than one hundred and seventy nine percent over last year. Back in may, in video C. M. Professional carnival baka, jen huang said that the company was now, and I quote, on a one year rythm in AI GPU production with its latest blackwell GPU specifically to be one hundred and two hundred and G, B, T. Two hundred used to generate A, A, I supposedly do at the end of twenty twenty four, except there now delayed until at least march twenty twenty five.

Now before we go any further, it's worth noting that when I say GPU, I don't mean the one you'd find in the gaming PC, but a much, much larger chip put on a specialized server and actually specialize border as well with multiple other gp s, all integrate with special casing, cooling and networking infrastructure, all of which is sold by in video. By the way, you can use other things, but well, buy in one place, right? That's the product strategy.

In simple terms, these are things necessary to make sure all these chips work together efficiently and also stop them from overheating because they get extremely hot and generate AI makes them run at full speed all the time. Now the initial delay of the new black world chips is caused by a now fixed design foreign production. But as i've previously suggested, the problem isn't just creating the chips, it's making sure they actually work at scale for the jobs that they been put for.

Now what if that wasn't possible a few weeks ago? The information report that in video is currently grading with the oldest problems in computing, how to call the fucking in things, according to their reporting, in video has been asking supplies to change the design of its three thousand pound seventy five G P U server acx several times to overcome these heating problems, which the information calls, quote the most complicated design and video had ever come up with. According to the report, a few months after revealing the ranks, engineers found that they didn't work properly even when they use the smaller thirty six chip ranks, and they've been kind of scrambling to fix IT ever since.

While one can dazles investors with buzz ds jots and the term super intelligence, the laws of physics are a little bit more of a harsh mistress. And if in video is struggling me months before the first installations to begin that i've heard some are going out now, it's kind of unclear how they practically plan to launch this next generation of chips. Let one doing another one in a year.

The information reports. These changes have been made late production, which is scaring customers that desperately need them now so that their models can continue to do something that they will work out later. To quote the information again, two executives at large cloud providers that order the new chips said they are concerned that such last minute difficulties might push back the timeless when they can get the G, P, U.

Classes up and running next year. The fact that in video is having such significant difficulties with themal performances is very, very bad. These chips are very expensive, thirty to seventy grand, I hear, and will be running, as i've mentioned, that full speed, generating an incredible amount of heat that must be dissipated or sent next to anywhere from thirty five to seventy one other chips, which will in turn be densely packed so that you can cramb all services into a data center.

New, more powerful chips require entirely new methods to remind them, Operate them and call them. And all of these parts must Operate, and sink is overheating. gp. S will die.

And while these units are big, some of their internal components and amy is in size, and unless properly cool, their circus will start the crumble when roasted by a guy typing Garfield with a gun and ebra ChatGPT, which I have never done, of course. Remember, blackwell is supposed to be in videos. S next big thing, it's meant to represent a major leap for in performance.

If in video doesn't solve its cooling problem and solve IT well, its customers will undoubted encounter thermal throttle where the cheap reduces its speed. In order to avoid causing permanent damage, IT could eliminate some or all of the performance gains obtained from the new architectural, a new manufacturing process despite costing much, much more, both for the chips itself and the housing for them in videos. S problem isn't just bringing these dermal performance issues under control, but both keeping them under control and being able to educate the customers on how to do so.

In video has, according to the information, repeatedly tried to influence its customer server integrations to follow its designs because IT thinks IT will lead to Better performance. But in this case, one has to worry if in videos, backwell chips can be reliably cool. Maybe they can, in video, worked out crazy things in the past.

And while in video might be able to fix this problem in isolation within its ranks, IT remains to be seen how this works at scales. They ship and integrate hundreds of thousands of blackwell GPU, starting in the front half of twenty twenty five. Things also get a little worse when you realize how these chips are being installed in these giant supercomputer data centers where tens of thousands, as many as one hundred thousand of, in the case of elon musk colosse ata center, which is just very funny that that's what it's for.

It's for grown on a dying social at look be at these G, P. S. They are running concept to power generative models. That's all they're really for. And the wall street journal reported a few weeks ago that building these vast data that has creates entirely new engineering chAllenges, with one experts saying big tech companies could be spending as much of half of the cathal expenditures on replacing parts that have broken down, in large part because these clusters are running on G, P, S.

That are running at full speed that need to all be cooled and need to be cooled well, remember, the capital expenditures on generate AI and its associated infrastructure have gone over a two hundred billion dollars in the last year. If half of that dedicates or replacing broken shit, what happens when there's no path to profitability, in any case? And videos, fine, they'll work IT out well enough to keep flog in these things.

They've ready made billions of dollars selling blackwells that sold out for a year, in fact, and they will continue through. So for now that any manufacturing or cooling issues are going to a be very costly. And even then at some point, somebody has to ask the question, why do we need all these gp s if we reach P, K, I? Despite the remarkable power of these chips in videos, entire inspired GPU business model centers around the idea that throwing more power of these problems will finally create some solutions.

What if that isn't the case, though? So as ever, i'm kind of pissed off. I'm pissed off of reading this stuff. And it's not just because I was saying this months ago, it's because all of this money could have gone literally anywhere else they could have done something else they could have.

I don't know, i'm not running a big tech company, but I would have put IT into climate stuff for new battery technology. Everyone saying I will make your own chips now. Yes, see you in a few years, decade, when you got A T S M C and ask if they've got any spare slots.

I'm sure you've got plenty. I'm sure that you can just go and build a trip tomorrow. And motor, talking about building is our god damn chips.

What what an absolute fast this is, this fucking fast. All of this money burned in search of the technology that only kind of works on something. Sometimes it's just kind of a joke.

The take industry is over leverage. They doubled, they tripled. They could dw pull down on generation now. And this technology does not do much more than I did a few months ago. And I don't think it's going to do very much more in a few months.

Every single big tech companies are tens of billions of dollars into building out these massive super clusters with the intent of capturing A I demand. Yet they never seem to think whether they were actually building things that people wanted or would pay for, or that would make the money, or that would help you money in anyway, really anything to do with an outcome other than line go up. While some have claimed that agents are the next front A I agents, frontier, jesus, snap, keep him.

The reality is that agents may be the last. Generate AI product, multiple large language models and integrations bouncing off of each other, and attempt simulate what a human might do with a cost that won't be sustainable for the majority of businesses. While anthropic demo of its a legged model that can control a few browser windows with a prompt might have seen impressive to graduate people specifically mean case in you.

And here these were controlled demos, which anthropic added was slow and make lots of mistakes. Hey, almost like it's fluctuating. I sure hope they fix that unfixed ble problem might be talking about for msg is Christ, even if IT does.

And thought, because now successfully replaced an entry late, full data work opposition an indeterminate cost, unlikely and unprofitable one too. And in many organza, those jobs have already been outsourced or automated, or stuff with cheap contractors. So the people who are gonna lose out here are people who already getting shot on my life.

IT really sucks. And the absence of this mass delusion, it's it's just nauseating. It's a monos to bad decision making in the heard mentality of text, most powerful people as well as an outlet attempt to manipulate the media into believing something was possible that never was and the media bought IT hook, line and sinker.

You all boy IT hundreds of billions of dollars have been wasted building giant data in is the chunk numbers for software that has no real product market fit or will turn a hammer into various shapes to make IT pretend that it's alive, conscious or even fuck and useful. There is no path from what I can see to turning generate avi from what IT is today into anything resembling a sustainable business. And the only path that big tech appeared to have seen or thought about was the throw as much money, power and data at the problem and having you that appeared to be and definitely appears to be now a complete dead end.

And we're still now this is really come out of this movement. I've used a hand full of A I products. I found useful nai power general, for example, but these are not products that one associates of revolutions.

They're useful tools that would have been a welcome. Surprised if I didn't require boning billions of dollars, blowing past emissions targets and stealing the creaative works of millions of people to train them. It's just sickening.

It's sickening because this did not have to happen, had sent up up a shy what microsoft did with OpenAI and said, not for me, may, that's definitely not Harry talks. But nevertheless, none of this would have continued. You think microsoft is gonna alt the ship up on their own.

God know, they have no juice such an adeler. He's just he's a cold leader, something i'm going to get into a later episode and it's just it's all very sad. But if you want to cheer yourself up, maybe you could listen to one of the following advertisements.

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at high number five. And were back. Look, I truly don't know what happens next, but i'm going to walk you through what i'm thinking.

If we're truly at the diminishing return stage of transformer based models, it's gonna extremely difficult to justify buying further iterations of invidia GPU pass black well. And also, I have doubts they're going to be able to make a new one every year. The entire generate AI movement lives and dies by the idea that more computer power and more training data makes these things Better.

And if that's no longer the case, there's not really a reason to keep buying bigger and Better. What's the point even now, what exactly happens when microsoft 和 google has rax worth？ Black world G, P, S.

Models are getting there faster. I guess, what does faster even mean? What does Better even mean? Better has yet to mean the new product Better is not seem to be measurable by humans, just by bullshit benchMarks. This also makes the lives of OpenAI and anthropic a little more difficult. Sam walton is going rich and powerful, lying about how GPT will somehow lead to agi, some conscious computer.

But at this, at this point, what exactly is OpenAI meant to do? What are they doing? The only way is these companies ever been able to develop new models is by throwing massive of computer and training data at them.

And they're only other choices to start stapling their reasoning model on to the side of their large language model, at which point something happens, something everyone is happening, something that is so good that literally nobody working for open an eye in the media appears to be able to tell you what IT is. yeah. Putting that aside, open eyes is also a terrible business that has to burn five billion dollars to make three point seven billion dollars.

And there's no proof that they are able to bring down their costs. The constant thing I am from VS and A I fantasies is that the chips will bring down the cost of inference yet. I don't see that happening.

I've yet to see that happening. The syrup is dia plate sized chips. But you know what? I just don't think that he is gona scale. And at that point have to wonder, do they have like where is this going?

I know you're listening to an episode where I tell you, but still even reading this stuff all day, you just look at IT too hard and you start feeling little crazy. I've read pretty much every article on OpenAI at this point. I've read microsoft earnings, also bought a straight same with the rest of them.

I've read all their blog post. I've reall this year. They don't have any idea. I'm confident that they don't have any idea. It's terrifying.

And this is just this dismore situation when the only other there's really only a few options. If I monist you stop. Now that is the biggest one, you just stop.

Someone has to admit, microsoft, google, they'll never do this. They need to go. This is not going to scale.

We need to pair this back, or we need to stop IT and IT will hurt their stock. IT will hurt their media. But it's the right thing to do for the environment alone, but as a sustainable business.

But assuming they don't do that, we have another problem, which is the only other option they can have is to keep flowing. The gas IT costs one hundred million dollars to train G P T four o anthropic CEO dario and day estimate a few months ago that training future models would cost one billion, if not ten billion dollars. With one researcher claiming the training opens next model GPT five will cost around a billion dollars outside of a miracle.

We're about to enter an era of desperation in general AI with two years in and we have no killers s no industry defining products other than ChatGPT a product, the burn's billions of dollars, and nobody can really describe every episode. I'm like email, may told me, watch t GPT is and i'll get some smart ask who sends me three power graphs? No, no, no, no, no.

That's not a description. That's an essay. Me, you actually need to tell me what the hell this is. And if you can't youve prove my point in my extremely thin and rigged game, anyway, neither microsoft nor matter, nor google, nor amazon, seem to be able to come up with any profitable use cases, let alone on their users actually like, nor have any of the people who raise billions of those invention capital for anything.

With a eye take to the side, an investor interest in A I is already cooling according to the information. It's kind of unclear how far this fast goes from here, if only because IT isn't obvious what IT is that anybody gets by investing in future rounds of OpenAI, anthropic or any of these other generate AI companies. At some point, they must make money.

And the entire dream has been built around the idea that all of these gaps in all of this money would eventually spit out something, something revolutionary, something world changing. And what we have is this clunk y ugly, messy loss is environmentally destructive and mediocre piece of shit. Generate a ee was a wreckless pursue, one that shows a total lack of creativity and sense in the minds of big tech in venture capital, one when there was never anything really impressive over the amount of money, you could burn the amount of time saml and could say something stupid and get quoted for IT.

I'll be honest with you. I don't really know what happens to the future was always one that demanded big takes spend more to make even big a models that would at some point become useful. And IT isn't happening.

In pursuit of doing so, big take invested hundreds of billions of dollars into infrastructure, specifically to follow one go and put A I front and center of their businesses, claiming IT was the future without ever checking if IT was, if I actually did anything useful. And really, they, as have said in the rock home bubble a few months go, they don't have anything else. They don't have another growth market.

And maybe that's why they are shoving all the cash to this because they don't have IT anywhere else to put IT. They don't want to make y've got nothing else. They don't want to admit that their businesses are trembling under scrutiny from manti trust.

They don't want to admit their services a kind of determination, especially in the case of matter, they don't have anything else. The revenue isn't coming. The products aren't coming.

A I on open a eyes. Next model IT will underwhelm as well. It's competitive. This model, at some point, somebody is going to blink in one of the hyper scale. And the AI era will end.

Almost every single generation I company that you've heard of is deeply unprofitable, and there are very few innovations coming to save them from the atrophy of the foundation model system, which by the way, is the main large language models that they're training in all of these cases. Now, i've tried to keep my emotions in check, but you might, you might be able to tell that this pisses me off a level. I just feel sad and exhausted about IT all.

I feel drained as I look at how many times I tried to warm people and pissed off the many members of the media that failed to push back against the over promises and now right lies of people like sad o worry obama days one calling him now is not particularly funny or accurate but it's funny to say for me and i'm just full of dread as I considered the economic ramifications of this industry collapsing as well as the damage it's already done to our fucking and environment once the A I bubble pops. There are no hyper growth markets left, which will in turn lead to a blood bath and big tech stocks as they realized that they're out of big ideas to convince the street that are going to grow forever. There are some that will boost about being right here.

And yes, there is some satisfaction in being. So of course, of course, you would take them on. You do the Victory lap, whatever I said a thing and I was right.

I don't know if i'm i'm really doing the joke. Kick down the stairs here. I want to know if i'm really happy about being right here.

I think generate vy. I is a huge waste of money. I think the damage is going into the environment is disgusting.

I think the stealing required to make the train data de is disgusting. I think all of that ending is good. And I think IT needs to just to be clear what I said.

But you know what? The other problem is that when this all falls apart, it's gona be rough. It's going be rough for people in the taking industry, and it's going to be rough for the economy.

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Someone to start rapping up here. I'm not read you a quote from bubble trouble, a piece I wrote in April. How do you solve all of these incredibly difficult problems? What does OpenAI or anthropic do when they run out of data? And its synthetic data doesn't fill the gap or worse, massively degrades equality of their outputs.

What does sam often do if GPT five like G P T four doesn't significantly improve its a performance and he can't find enough computer to make the next step what the OpenAI on anthropic do when they realized they're likely never turn a profit? What does microsoft, gramaphone or google do if demand never really takes often and left with billions of dollars on the utilized data centers? What does invidia do if the demand for its chips drop sofa Cliff?

As a result, I don't know why more people aren't screaming from the rooftops about how unsustainable the AI boom is and how impossible some of the chAllenges are faces. There is no way to create enough training data for these models. Little that, that we've seen so far suggest that generate A I will make anybody.

But in video money, we're reaching the point where physics, things like heating electricity are getting in the way of progressive much further. And it's hard to stomach investing more considering where we're at right now. Once you cut through the noise, IT just seems kind of barely got down mediocre.

There's no wife on my mom. I'm coming and afraid. So right? Not going a bit too smug, but reading that back, pretty accurate, pretty good for apple.

I was right then. I'm right now. Generate AI isn't a revolution. It's an evolution of a tech industry overtaken by growth, ungry management, consult and freak that I neither know the problems that real people face, how to fix them. It's a waste.

It's a sickening waste, a monument to the corrupting force of growth and assign that people empower and take no longer work for you, the customer, but venture capitalists and for the markets. I also want to to be clear that none of these companies seem to have ever had a plan. They believed if they threw enough GPU together, they would turn, generate A, I would probably tic model for generating staff, either into a sentient computer in open a eyes case, or into some sort of useful product in microsoft case.

Neither of them are right. And I get IT, I get something you you like. Well, this is all the big plans they can proferred da centers.

This is all the big plans. They can steal everything and ship IT back to us. They can do this to us. It's much easier and more comfortable to look at the world as a series of conspiracies, these grand strategies, and that all of these people are powerful, which they are but powerful in a way that is kind of the dread hand controlling your everything.

But honestly, it's fast, scary to see reality for that is extremely rich and powerful people are willing to bet insanely large amounts of money on what amounts to a few P. D. S. And their fucking got these people have no plan. This is not big takes big plan to or their excuse to build more data centres. It's the death throws of twenty years of growth at all costs thinking because throwing a bunch of money at more service and more engineers always seem to create more growth in the past.

In practice, this means that the people in charge and the strategy they employed are born not of an interest in improving the lives of you, the customer, but an increasing revenue growth, which means products they create aren't really about solving any problem other than what will make somebody give me more money, which doesn't necessarily mean provide them with a service, generate A I is the perfect monster of the road. Economy is a technology that lacks any real purpose. So as if I could do literally anything, one without a real business model or killer APP proliferated because big take no longer innovates the clown, and they monopolize.

Yes, this much money can be this stupid. And yes, they will burn billions more. In pursuit of a non specific dream involves charging you more money and trapping you in their ecosystem.

But the round of ideas, this was the big thing. If they had anything else, they wouldn't done this. They don't that kind of screwed. I don't know how long this will take for you to see how much they screwed. Could be a year, could be two cores?

I honestly don't know, but I cannot go on like this IT cannot because at some point, burning billions of dollars every month is not going to work. At some point, the markets will react. At some point, I don't know.

CFO of microsoft and hood might say, hey, we're building billion of dollars to lose billions of dollars we done after the customers. These products are useful enough or maybe he keeps driving to hell, I don't know. But the longer IT takes, the worst it's gonna be for the industry and for the markets.

I'm not trying to be a doom said, just like I wasn't trying to be one in much. I believe all of this is going nowhere. And some point google, microsoft matter, they're to one of those gonna blink. They're na pull back on the capex.

And before then, you've going to see a lot of desperate stories about how A I gains can be found outside of training new models to try and keep the party going despite reality flicking the lights on an north and threatened to call the place on a really though you're gonna see so much of that, you're gona see people in the media who should know about still pumping, still pumping that bag because he gets back to the conspiracy theory I was talking about before IT gets back there, because it's so much easier to think they are work IT out. They're smart. I trust them.

I trust these people. They're gonna work out how to make generate F, A. I make so much money, it's going to be so profitable, always going to be so good.

Because when you don't accept that promise, everything you write about feels like writing about a dying person. Oh, anthropic claims that can write in your, your write down. Now, great.

Whether anthropic gona be in two years, the toilet probably going need a pretty big total for us. J, P, S, I will open eye. They have this idea.

Yeah, the ideas of fucking and suck so far. And the irony is, large language models as an idea aren't a bad one. The concept is interesting.

A word calculator, sexy. Oh, correct. Whatever you call that.

There are meaningful things you could build with that, but not at this cost. Not like this. Not this much money. Not stealing from artists, not stealing from reuters.

I don't know if mine have been used, but if they have, I got legal resources to fy, and I fucked in. Well, i'm sick this year. I'm sick of what I see and being done, the contractors.

I'm sick of what I see happening to art directors who lose their jobs to some shit head using daily three many. It's grow desk. It's enough to turn your stuck.

And as we come towards the end of the year, you may have at the beginning of the summing up, why are you so? Why is he so annoyed? I think i've done a good job explaining them, but I want to want a good night.

And look, I fear for the future for many reasons, but I was, i've hope, because I believe that there are still good people in the tech industry. And I love technology. I want to say every epo de, but I can, because I really do.

I love my computer. I love the people are fine through IT. I love the friends and the families, and love one of I found through IT. And I know a lot you do to and I want to make that clear, because one of this is a problem with take IT.

As at home, the people who have taken over attack of the problem, the management consult in the elite, the business people who just want to see growth at all costs. But I do have hope. I do have hope because of blue sky, which is a social network i've posted on over year that's finally taking room.

And this isn't an ad. This is just summary. I spend eleven hours a day of posting, but IT feels different.

It's growing rapidly. It's competing with threats and with twitter, and they're doing so on an honest product in open protocol. I'm not saying it's the solution for everything.

I'm just saying solutions are possible. People are building them. People are trying IT doesn't have to be like this.

The economy does not have to control the destiny of tech. And I think Better things can happen. It's gonna take a while, things are gonna blow up. I'm scared for this industry. For what happens after generate vi collapses are not just for the initial problem, but when they don't have anything else the next quarter.

But there are other ideas out there, there are other ideas of the future that aren't just born at the shitty I billionaire dad and shit he was like anta pixi and sam and propagate regular an and they can, and they will grow out of the ruins that these people create. I want you to have hope. Hope isn't just about blindly being optimistic.

You couldn't feel hopeful while still being pissed off at everything. Hope is about getting up every day and being willing to say what you think Better looks like, what you think a Better world could be. You don't have to do at at scale.

You don't have to be an influencing. You don't have to write, don't have to have to take podcast. You just have to talk to your friends, you have to talk to the people you know.

You have to fight within the institutions you are in to find the joy and to push out things like generate A I. We can have Better. And you are the beginning of fixing these problems.

And I actually believe that with enough push back, these big tech companies can change to i'm not relying on them. I hate that I have to use their products, but you don't. Perhaps you can find alternatives.

I always say it's a great day to join blue sky or use signal proto males, apparently great. I'm very much stuck in the gmail ecosystem, which sucks a few decades in there. It's tough.

Is the decades now. Either way, it's hard to escape the road economy hole. But there a bit of yourself you can remove from IT. Please do not give up hope. Please stay angry.

If you are angry, not telling you to be angry, your indignation is necessary, your righteous indignation is necessary to tell these people to go fucking pounds sand. Your little changes, those discussions you have with colleagues and friends and loved ones about these problems that acknowledge is powerful. And I encourage you to talk about these things.

The taking industry is grown big and strong, telling you you're too stupid to understand what they're doing. And unless i'm very much mistake and based on the redesign and listened to talk to. You all get this.

I just explain GPU and server architecture and shit think you mostly got IT right. And assuming you did, you keep listening. And that's because this stuff isn't that complex.

They want you to believe IT is so they can stay powerful. You're a lot god dam smart than you give yourself credit for. You're a lot.

god. Dams stronger than you are too. Don't let these people make you feel pressed.

Don't let them make you feel weak. You are not. You are so much more valuable to them than they'll ever be to you.

You are being conned. You are the victim, and you will succeed long term. Spread the good ideas, talk about what a good world looks like.

And thank you for listening. Thank you for listening to Better roof line. The editorial um composer of the battle offline theme song is matter sales cape.

You can check out more of his music and audio projects, a meta sales I dot com M A T T O S O W S K I dot com, you can email me are easy at Better off line 点 com or visit Better off line 点 com to find more podcast links。 And of course, my newsletter, I also really recommend you go to chat, that was your ed or ant to visit the discord and go to ask lash Better roof line to check out our read IT. Thank you so much for listening.

Better off line is a production of cool zone media. For more from cool zone media, visit our website clues when we get a dot com or check us out on the I heart radio up apple podcast or whatever, you get your podcast.

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