We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode The Polls Weren’t Wrong
People
T
Tatishe M. Nteta
Topics
Tatishe M. Nteta: 本期节目讨论了2024年美国总统大选的结果，许多人对特朗普击败哈里斯感到惊讶，因为他们认为民调显示这是一场势均力敌的选举。然而，民调专家Tatishe M. Nteta教授指出，民调并非预测性工具，而是对特定时间点公众意见的快照。民调显示，这是一场势均力敌的选举，最终结果取决于候选人动员选民的能力以及摇摆州选民的最后决定。哈里斯未能赢得任何摇摆州，这反映了全国范围内对现任政府和国家发展方向的不满情绪。民调机构需要根据政治事件的发生及时调整民调方向和问题，以反映公众对政治事件的理解。网络民调比电话民调更有效率、更有效，也更经济实惠，并且更符合美国人的偏好。出口民调存在局限性，尤其是在近期的选举中，由于样本偏向于当天投票的共和党选民，导致对少数族裔和工薪阶层选民的代表性不足。需要高质量的数据来解释选举结果，而不是简单地归咎于特定群体。需要考虑经济因素、候选人与现任政府的关系以及潜在的歧视因素。民调机构需要更清晰地向公众传达民调的非党派性和非意识形态性，以及民调并非预测性工具的本质。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The chapter discusses the surprise at Trump's victory and the misconception that polls were predicting a close race.
  • Trump's victory in Georgia and North Carolina signaled his potential win.
  • Democratic strategists expressed confidence in winning the election, focusing on Midwest states.
  • Trump won most swing states and the popular vote, contrary to poll expectations.

Shownotes Transcript

Many folks were surprised at how soundly Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the election, especially since they thought the polls made it seem like a coin flip. The problem is, that’s not quite what the polls were saying.

Guest: Tatishe M. Nteta, Provost Professor of Political Science, Director of UMass Poll

Want more What Next TBD? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus) to get access wherever you listen.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices)