#70: Is Apple’s Vision Out of Focus?
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All I do is like cookies all day long.

I'm really not a fan of this phrase is ever I aide my face until lindy Wilson and I think IT works are the vis okay if you .

go out there and chAllenge our alison and we're ready or we're wrong and we expect i'm just going to be transparent.

Every technology company you release the product, some of them float like apple has a long history of releasing form factors that absolutely flap.

I saw you in a sports car on instagram and I was like, what is happening to sam right now?

I am very a .

why did you buy .

a the man?

Did yo magazine hear that you .

are one of the most important voices in media telling the future media.

There's like the cookie moment.

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的 太 惨白。

Right to the test more less. Well, hello, hello, welcome.

more or less. Hello, hello.

hey, everyone.

great. You look blonder.

I do. Well.

yeah, is this A I break? What's going on?

Can I tell you? Get a secret? Yeah, I have this sort of girl crush. And yeah, David like, okay, David likes whenever girl crushes on lindy Wilson, the country singer. She's like the country Taylor swift and she's .

I .

know he is just .

those that don't know.

Can I have a girl crashed on lady Wilson?

So then I was like, okay, i'm turning forty next year. I haven't really done anything like crazy to my looks ever really well one time out of college, but we will talk about that anyway. I AI, I aide my face until lindy Wilson, and I think IT works. And so now I think my hair juster says, after three times I can be leny blond. So million and one of the three, but it's really being driven by the fact that i'm turning forty days soon, like in a year, and I feel like that now the time, but it's like not a midlife crisis .

because of your birthday in december isn't IT.

So yeah by thirty nine in december is about next december is forty. And I just feel like I need to really extend authorities, but I don't know yeah I don't know what either. I think .

great love IT.

I had to know us forty years old are like sam. You one talk about your midlife .

crises of the topic for red.

I know I saw you in a sports car on instagram.

What is happening .

to sam right now? Very .

happy with my way.

Did you buy me course?

I bought him me on that. I bought a Cherry, right?

I actually can't believe this.

Believe it's great.

Now time or dry way there .

is so fun. I bought it's just, you know, it's manual, like boat, the soft PS. So like literally, you just take the roof down with your hands and put IT behind you.

And IT, is this around how know? I went to C. V.

S. Today to pick up a prescription. As just knows, i've never done that in my life. But I want of the drives red me down, you know, get .

what's upon a time. Sam had good taste in cars. And .

no, the me is great.

This is what your dave are you, are you questioning the taste of my meta?

I mean, you're going to go for a convertible, something you could have gone nine, eleven.

And no, no, you know, I think i'm going to chance on .

this if you went there. Oh, okay.

we don't have to get into the whole nine eleven cycle. Here's the thing, one of a mea man and I got to tell you.

and oh god.

i'm a to sponsor .

this podcast of so I need .

to be clear, in the nineties I thought to me I was cool too.

I job in miotto with my dad and like the nineties and and I remember having a blast in IT as like a kid. And i'm really happy with that. I look the post conversation, but here's the problem. The problem is, is that in the south bay of 3Frances go.

we don't live in the south bay. We live in.

Yes, you do. You live in the south bay. I'm here to tell you porches.

their beautiful cars. Everyone has a porch. Very boring. It's is not a thing. It's just like it's so boring.

Where is like meta? Actually the biota is like fun and it's great. And so i've been having a very good time with IT.

Um i'm very long meta and I have to say people becoming out of the wood work. I've got a lot of dms about the miotto. It's my computer .

is a boy .

most of we have round this out by talking about our crises, but I will say I like that we're a meadii to coma bolt family yeah describe .

teas and our family.

There are other beautiful cards from my personal statement perspective.

driving on the auto vice, very happy. I've so got sam has been happy this week as but okay, so we got all of that crisis out of the way. I am really looking forward to this podcast and talking to all because I wanna know, are the VC okay? Just I was I was noticing .

you are picking a little fight with somebody on the internet this week and what are you going .

to fight with me? I have a whole newcomb strategy, guys. If you go out there and chAllenge our journalism and we're right or we're wrong and we correct IT, i'm just gonna be fully transparent with the world about everything that happens.

And this is about to actually really, especially in a fun way, not not oversetting, but let's catch the poor listeners up here. But basically, dear listeners, a very exciting thing happened in the world of silicon valley this week. There was an exit.

What the fact company .

did you say?

Venture backed cyp to company exit. All in one sentence.

I mean, wait, there's like I did. I'm .

constantly making adventure back money on venture backer ript. I don't .

know what you're so surprised about but let's so state but for one point one but you know let's not get into the five print billion dollars a stable coin company called bridge um and you know what instantly happened is sqa the lead series, a investor in this company, others investors in these company, in this company, including han ventures from Kitty han, I believe, rabbit capital.

all of the three suspects.

they had really good news to share with the world about their and all of the sun. They started to really care what order they were listed in, in the information as investors in said company. And to be fair.

like scientists arguing over research papers like whose name is first.

but to be fair, we I like we, we, we left ed out. So they mention of show koa first IT was IT was an error. IT was brought to our attention and IT was fixed and updated.

I believe within five and a happy minutes, error was clarified. We even said that we made this clarification. We weren't hiding the ball. I think just .

assume that scores always making money on everything isn't IT like think you need to say that.

you know, soy is some go to act and said, this is the state of journalism. Can you believe .

the information?

No, he did. He did. And to which I respond, this is the state of communications. You know, an error was made, was in in otherwise, you know, fine, peace again, IT was an air.

I'm not going to sit here arguing that IT was an oversight, right? We named bunch of investors we didn't name delete investor oversight, fixed five and half minutes. And you know this attitude. But then, guys, this I haven't even share IT what happened after this problem. Oh yes.

Then my dm start lining up with all the other investors, you know, saying other things about the piece, right? And i'm just like, you know, what is underscore to me is something i've long known, which is one learns a lot more about companies and their internal struggles and strategies in moments like these, you do you know, through other kinds of reporting. Because what instantly became clear is that there was this like little bit of feeding frenzy to not like no one was disputing these investors had had an ice ex IT.

But the bickering over the degree to witch in horse trading just seems to me to be an all time high. So we don't have to go down this one example, although there haven't been many. But because because this means .

such a death of exits, like people are just desperate, I mean, this wouldn't happened. And like .

Normal entry time, I think norm is IT .

that the eve of these venture capitals are going bigger or that the markets just like been drier, you know, and they like me to prove to their ropes they have returns.

It's Sunny but just like yeah ahead, dave.

Anybody whose front raising is dealing with the lack of liquidity in the system, we've talked about this many, many times right now. And so the lack of liquidity leads to people needing to just I think you're saying is looked the cookie right in order to do marketing to get more L P S, right? Like that's all they're trying to do, is make sure that I really knows that they made some vpi here so that they can know get the next lp in the door. Like that's what this .

comes down to as a well known cookie leaker, I think realises that just goes to show that you know publications like the information set the tone for when and people going to look up .

who did and so funny. And you like the cookie more, and I like the cookie less.

All I do is lucky all they want.

I need to look the cookie more. Maybe I shouto start doing that right now.

I just, why would you lack a cooking? You would eat a cooking.

Guys have a lot of this phrase. I think sam, was the invention of this not going well for me.

guys. I'm going to i'm going to look for my email right now to find some email from the bridge founders at some point to make my post about how I love that at first.

Oh yeah, exactly. I think i've got that too well.

But basically, bit I think you nailed IT. And I think sam also right. I think this is a heightened period of anxiety investors.

And again, you know some of this is typical. I mean, I we've written stories about departures from venture capital firms, partners who left to, on start, other firms. Sometimes when people leave, we might brief F I. Sometimes we might write article, the investors notice the difference and then call me and say, well, why when these people left IT? So, you know, so IT wasn't a big deal.

You know, you did IT IT s in you N H right? And of course, like the reality is like there's different news, not all people at all venture firms are created equal, right? But like it's daily at a at a pretty crazy level, this at this moment. Now just take IT this friday.

You become so important, powerful in this world that people really care about getting their t in the information. You maybe when you were the journal, people cared less because he was one of more random in whatever. I think you should to take another.

I think, sam, right. But I think there's another thing going on here, which is that people have also realized that taking the call IT trump in a twitter strategy really works, which is latch on to whatever my new scandal there might be and turned into uh you know, wrestling federation heal moment that they can like drag through the twitter verse and get maximum distribution for, right? Like that's also what's going.

So i'm just gone to do that too. Is that onna work for me? No, no, you just keep being .

excEllence in doing the highest quality work. And who cares of people do on twitter like no.

I know, but I can. I mean, it's in fact.

yes, I won't say who, but we were meeting with a very large lp today. Who smartly said to this, uh, we have a lot of data on this and we can definitively say that they ve venture capitalists that are eating the most are not the ones producing the D. P. I.

Well, I have to say that their data seems to be quite wrong because I I treated like eight times other than you say there's a thing i'm very set because I just talked to my email and I don't have emails with either of these founders. I have nothing to string shot .

with bridge or strip or .

what bridge I like, literally just look through .

both them. And apparently i've met neither.

I'm sure you are right about the theses at some point. Sam.

I thank you. This is minus strategy is I don't know in care and they would like to see how many eat the elect cookies that's care what happy is .

talking I yeah I will say to to break out this topic and then we pack line guys. But we're doing this to within media right now, which is we had an excEllent story inside the relationship between NVIDIA and t sm c, probably one of the most important relationships and technology right now.

Tss, don't know. That is for people that know.

yes, short. So T S M C makes the chips in a vidia design. And the in taiwan, we don't have to get to that part ortn't.

Part of IT IT is important, and in vidia, the the king of this generation of this AI race is in a constant race to build, design, ship, new chips and very rapid pace. And IT is straining their relationship with t, sm, c. And there was a particular default with a black world chip, which we reported many months ago.

Johnson said IT was fake news that there is any problem with IT. He now has said, oh, absolutely, there was a problem, but IT was r and videos, not t sm c. And news reports saying the problems that with T S M C or fake news news reports us linking up.

So I looked at our garden at six times. I like, nowhere do we say that T S M C fucked up, right? nowhere. Or we like this is a great business story about when most important alliances and business and how it's wetheral this boom that is straining literally the capacity of like more global supply chain.

And you know the calculus johns's calculus is like, oh, it's really bad if t sm c thinks we're pointing fingers, so i'm just gonna fingers at the press. But like, it's shitty because it's not what we said. And so I am gonna respond to this. And again, maybe I won't matter.

I think you going to eat like cookie.

eat. I want to eat cookie, so anyway, you can do. And again, when we screw up, we fix IT. And so this is an argument about everything being.

I think got a great message to get out there.

Just I just think that like you have Better things to do than to be like Vicky on twitter with these people.

Well, IT is really important to me. And I honestly think that and many other institutions, there are a lot of moving pieces. And it's very complicated for the editor in chief to just speak out because like maybe there's a business relationship, maybe there's an advertising, there's just a lot of relationships, right? And for Better, worse, I can speak out. And so i'm going to.

But I think it's I think it's great that you're putting this message out there that you do try to fix things. And I think that's maybe the difference between today and ten years ago where people weren't trying to do IT in real. I mean, the fact that you are saying, like we fix this in five minutes, like that's like, really that's awesome, right? And I think that something people we .

didn't even we didn't even sneak IT in. We then put something at the bottom of saying this was added, right?

Like, so I guess i'm looking I heard someone told me, how about stop? This could be information about res that.

yes, but only now my whole team knows that same.

Thank you. Look, that's fine, but i'm much more into the more or less emerge.

So this is a great .

you sure that says I E looked cookies the information on the no.

that's a more less shirt. I don't give IT a dress.

We are launching our merge store. I know that's really surprising to you all since I talk about merge all the time, but you guys ever those meetings when like some great on your team like comes in with like twenty two ideas and then you say yes to ten of them and they're shocked they're like what I can do this and i'm like, great now I did ask him to logic for the holiday season, which probably is a little aggressive, so maybe won't do that.

But guy, that is tightened the chat. B, T, I liked cookies. It's response. No one. These things that have been looked might not be the most times.

Is there any mark? Can I share one more inside about the press that is come to me of late before you move on to other breaking news? So I was also thinking though, so like this debate over, you know, listing investors in the order of the size of their investment are so forth.

Like I do think that the bar of expertise and sophistication that journalists have to meet in their coverage is getting higher and higher. And that's like a good thing like people often talk about, like the impact of the substate economy and all these expert a piner pandects. And I think the impact to like competition to the whole news of industries were are overstated.

But one way I think that ecosystem has changed the news industry is like when you have people who really, really understand the business, even if they're not reporting, but they're sort of a pining IT does like raise the public expectation for like how much of journalist is going to actually understand what dpi is or that it's important to understand how much cash was put in or you know things that people in the industry rightly, I think, have grapes with the press for not understanding. And I think it's a good thing that the bar is, is going up. But I think I have lately felt that is really I think .

what lisa is like, the world is getting smarter. Like the and is not unlike this brother in the world, is getting smarter because access to information has never been easier and speech has never been easier. And like all those things, so the world is also getting dumb or because of this information and misinformation and information warfare. But you know if you're paying attention, yeah like if you if everyone smarter than the person who you're reading to inform you Better be even smarter, right? definitely.

How is not a good thing? No, I agree it's good. But like when I would write about to start up fifteen years ago in the wall street journal, you know I would throw in the names of a couple of investors who invested in or something because, like, no one really cared that much and and also know I just probably wasn't, you know, I shouldn't have done that, but I sort of did.

And now, I mean, we we shouldn't do that. No publications to do that, right? So anyway, I think that's that's a good thing. But but journalists have to get with the program. Did you guys see new york magazine this week, by chance.

here that are one of the most important voices in media telling the future of the media.

There's a look the cookie moment .

look at that face just .

made like like way to me dave.

I don't know how to bring things up, but anyway it's a cool let's plug new york magazine for a second the cover of their latest issue for all you print people um they interviewed anonyme sly end on the record fifty .

media leaders so a very large .

entire world that sounds like a big number that .

so like that sounds .

like a lot to me.

It's like anyway, they they throw like eva chen from meet up so let's like.

you know, I don't know of that. Like I thought you have to run a media company.

Media I don't I feel like this only five video.

exactly.

Well, you know, you can't put the x space on the cover forever. I don't know who .

were the five not kind of fing out.

yeah. How do you .

feel that the photos where everyone's mid speaking.

so that the controversy around this isn't that like half of these elites are, seven, eight of these elites think the industry is in dire straits. It's that they took portraits of every single one of us, and every single one is completely unflattering. And the idea was that I was everyone mid conversation, like chit chatting.

And I mean, it's funny. I would say that the photographer who I liked very much took them on his iphone, which I thought was interesting. But anyway, that the internet is a buz with how ugly we all look.

so they should just give you before they publish the article. Like the original image and like five A, I generated drafts off of that. Get to choose from an improve that would be the best way to do IT.

Now I actually this is very untrod, which is now face filters are looking good. The new good is to look bad, like a cultural world. So like all the kids, instagram have shady photos with book, terrible. And like polar ods. It's just like you actually I think I actually think IT looked shady to us because we're old, but to the people know that they are like the cool s portraits of you ever taken because .

you look sure I just looked at IT. I thought I look odd. I didn't actually feel like.

I mean, odd. You just look like you in the middle of speaking.

I am. They actually asked you questions throughout the suit, the shoot, the suit. Anyway, people should read that if they care about the medium.

Did anyone? Is that the interesting in that piece? Justicia, I mean, i'm sure you did, but I didn't actually ad.

I think I blocked because i'm not a subscriber.

I subscribe for IT. I get in fifty box.

Fifty box are living your wife in that. I guess that makes sense.

I didn't think there is as anything that surprising to me. I tried, I shouted out, is like media outlet. I'm taking note of two way.

which no one is heard. I did like you've told me about this.

This is cool. Yeah, this is cool. If IT smart helpings, very, very higher newsletter, but also zoom. So it's like live CNN every night on the election or emotion or it's not oh, but it's a little less party than the others. But yeah, I don't know.

I just create my team, figured out everything I said on the record and then everything I said off the record too. So at least i'm consistent internally um but it's a fun concept like the concept. okay.

We have to talk about the shift to our other major topic of the week. Also, according to the information we've known, the vision pro hasn't exactly been a rocket ship, but. IT does appear like they are suspending production on version one. We have also reported a that they are considering th Epace o f v ersion t o t.

he b est I c apable. There's stop producing them. That's shocking thell.

They have started piles of like billions of dollars. These are unsold. Why are they even making them in the first place?

I mean, I think that this makes sense, right? Like when we when this product released, I think we had a pretty good episode on IT. And if I remember correctly, one of the things that we are saying is that this product was a developer kit, right? The point of this product was to get IT in the hands of software developers so that they can see what's possible with, uh, you know, this new Operating system, this entirely new context. IT wasn't meant ever to be a consumer device. I mean, every time apple name something pro, you're willingness .

to defend apple to the end of the universe will never seem to amazed me.

It's okay. It's okay. It's okay.

Let's have defense. I an it's not a defense. It's like literally just what they said right by in a pro product. It's that's a developer product like .

that's what they they were. Now tim cooked this was tim cooks great mean the media around IT was this is the great release of tims legacy and and like you can capture all you want. It's like hard to argue that this is successful.

I didn't don't think that IT was meant to be a consumer success.

okay? They only wanted to sell five hundred thousand units and they've sold almost four hundred thousand. It's on that far behind. And they've dropped they've drop production from two thousand and one thousand, fifty percent drop in production.

That's a key drop production. You don't drop production when things are hitting .

expectations. Oh, sure. But I guess that's what i'm saying. Just as if this is how the call is looking. And like, of course, you're gona reduce production.

Why why would you right? But I also think that the you know there is a really interesting tension in um in the watch of the product we taught to up at the time, which was basically yes, there was the developer marketing. There is also the cover of that, the fair and much more ballistic d than apple releases.

Developer facing things all the time, like from API and software and that kinds stuff. And IT really did feel like apple was testing the waters, which is fine. Maybe that's the right thing to do with this category, but you ramp up production and you build a supply chain and you spend A A lot of money on doing this and to like have IT fall short of expectations and half to like tell your suppliers stop.

okay. So what's the opposite strategy? right? The opposite strategy is what matter just did, right? They release the on, no one has tried this thing.

They did the same press strategy. They put, you know, mark all over every large podcast. They put, you know, this thing on all kinds of large scale media things.

Everybody covered IT, right? And what's the outcome? Basically, no one, no developers, no one has any idea what this is gonna like, right? There's like a bunch of people explaining to people what it's gonna like and that this future might come someday.

And to give them credit, the people I know who i've tried IT say that it's quite impressive and that in particular, the neural interface risk and thing is very, very impressive. Yet none of that message made IT through right, and virtually know when I talk to is like supercycle hya. Because not of them.

I've tried IT right? And so the opposite strategy is to release five hundred thousand or four hundred thousand and whatever hundreds of thousands of developer kits of this thing and get IT into the hands of developers to make them think about IT. And you know the thing i'll say is I actually just called down the matter um two days ago, and I actually ask can I get a demo of the orient and to their credit, they're like gusher like we love to show to you.

And so I want to go down there and check IT out because i've heard it's so great. Um but I think that's kind of the opposite tack here, right? And you've got a really great A B test.

I'm not sure facebook is, I don't know, like they may not in this for release a ryan, right? I mean, I think what they're saying is like here's where their technology is. We're not gonna released that at this phase, right? But we think the technologies is call, it's like not clear to me they are they're gonna release that you know an iteration from our some I mean.

they are pointing in that direction. And everybody talking about IT, whether it's mark or boys or anybody, they're all sort of talking about at some point. This idea is going to be out there.

And I don't think that um apple saying anything different. You they might say IT in their apple way and they might release IT in their apple form factor. Um but I think both are kind of saying the same thing, which is like there's going to be these interfaces that are in front of your eyes out there in the world.

You're going to be able to interact with them in this sort of spain, computing A R kind away. And you have to think about that platform differently than mobile phones. And like both, both sides are saying the same thing.

Apple has spent so much more money. I mean, even like if you're running an experiment, one like the order of magnitude of the investment is different.

And I think is I don't know the numbers be interesting to death. The number .

well isn't I mean, don't you think about about what at least break even on thirty five hundred dollar device? Like if get their spending time on R N D, and like everything else. But so is orion theoretically ally, right?

Guys, how do you think apple sped marketing vision .

problem and the japan .

and I love that. I can't for once I can .

get in .

two things like I I, the story of where the world is going things like, you know, in terms of A R V R, it's a story that this is all the science fiction from twenty years ago, right? And you have teams that didn't work on the super a long time and making improvements, by all accounts i've heard, ran amazing, but they're not going to release at any no device coming. It's gona be a long time on the burn nett.

I think the total different story in terms of what the progression is there. Apple, in its own way that its super secret thing released a device for the summer, which interestingly, they might have initially cash as developer kid, but everyone thought was great, myself included. It's a core device, right? And then you got all these headlines with tim cook sitting for interviews with CNN.

I'm looking on now tim cook that his legacy on augmented reality and he sitting for the interviews isn't like some random peace. Like this is a planted P. R.

peace. And it's clearly went through the hype cycle with a lot of people, you know, just think was the greatest thing. And apple, I cracked IT. And apple does IT again and this one's not IT right now.

Does that mean that there's no A R strategy ever for them? Not, of course, you're going to keep working on IT, but I think it's extremely hard to look at the cycle from the summer to where we are today and say that this is a Victory or theyve done, done, right? I still think this is probably device that is the most expensive per minute of use in history, right in turn.

If you just look at kind of how you look at that. So I don't know. I think it's pretty hard to defend apple on this one. And I think tim cook, he literally went out on A P R tour about this being his legacy and it's you know clearly not his legislate chain guy.

Think the category the category is is like I say it's not this product.

Yeah but sam, yeah exactly like if that is the headline, I still think it's pretty to accurate, right? Like both tim and mark are betting legacies. I think they're both betting legacies on this A R thing, right? It's not the individual products.

We're not solve this one. I think this more .

or less so to move us forward because we're never gonna ree on how much of a black eyes this is. But i'm interested, dave and bread, what you think apple should do next in this category? What does apple need to do next in arv? R.

I think they're already talked about IT. They're working on this like internal code named in one or nine. It's the cheaper version, likely the smaller version, the more oi an ask version of the vision pro.

And they're expecting to produce somewhere between four and eight million units of that is what they're telling supply suppliers. So that's like an order magi tude more than they ve sold of this development version v one. And I think that's the right direction.

Like I don't actually see too many red flags here. I think like this is a hard technology to create a yan's not out yet, this cheaper version of vision prose. Now yeah, it's going going to take time and it's going to take a lot more R, N D.

yeah. I think that I just agree, like I feel like sure we can agree that, that launch was maybe the wrong strategy. Okay, like maybe launching the APP was a wrong strategy. I don't know.

I actually like to get into the numbers of what the scale the investment was and how does that compared to market cap in all these kinds of things because you could get all apples to apples about this and be like, well, you know meta was spending metaverse level, like on Apollo project level R N D on trying to get to what is apple spending in terms of R N D as a percentage of their um resources, trying to get to both in both cases, they're saying, like I would really like to get to AR. I think that AR is the next platform. And you my experience of this year has been, I think, sam, we've both been talking about this the last few few pods.

You know this weekend I went to a forty nine years game and I went to the um imagine dragon's concert and I took my rab and metas with me and they were fantastic tic. Like they're definitely the break out product. I'll keep saying this.

I think it's the breakout tech product of the year, and it's starting to show a future where what is on your face is actually a really serious platform. And I think that that's the thing to be looking at here and that both companies are clearly I mean, it's not even it's like this isn't like a fancy for you know, controversial opinion. They're both clearly .

pointing directly in that direction. Apple initially targeted sales of three million division pro units, then they revised number to nine hundred thousand. Then they revise the number to uh, eight hundred thousand and IT looks like they sold four hundred and fifty thousand.

This is not a successful product, even a developer. And you can say they're point in the same direction. Lots of people see the vision. I means not put our glasses agent new years ago um in terms of like IT being right and is not even a unique direction.

I mean again, but the snap the snap things were a flop right? And so was metal glasses version one right?

But this is my point is that I think there's a difference I to argue with the fat excuse me, what's all the floating billions of dollars in revising your thing, your estimates down from three million to nine hurd thousand, six hundred thousand and four hundred thousand. That's a very big flop for a thirty five hundred dollar device.

So it's a three trillion dollar lar company like I know.

I mean, two things can be true at the same time, which is long term. Maybe they'll get there, and i'm sure they're now trying to produce a super shape ray bank, competitive things like that, that can all be true. And we can still admit that this was a bad product launch ultimately in a flop. Like I don't conflict.

Maybe my push on this is why would you assume that they weren't thinking three steps ahead in the first place? Like why why would you assume that this was the end game?

Why would you assume that? But just perfume, why would you assume that just because they are have a long term strategy, why can't they still have made a big error in the first step?

I just think most people do right, like I think .

that also its apple doesn't revise down things often. I just again, I think both things can be true and when and lighten point of years and but that sometimes sounds .

been watching doctor rocky.

yes, very doctor.

I i've been watching the barea.

what's name no, we all .

we can. We can I add on I do want to add on that. Apple also there's a report today that they cut iphone sixteen orter by ten million units for two four and first tap of twenty twenty five. That's that's an like .

yeah which is also a big fucking problem for them like because I mean.

whether or not it's fair or not, hardware companies liver die by their forecast. I covered up the all three journal for four years and you know investors care about numbers and companies are very, very, very careful in apple, more than any, in forecasting and giving up numbers. So I wouldn't necessarily say multiple downward revisions is like a cell for the company, but IT is certainly a sign that the strategy did not play out as they had intended because they never would have released numbers and many things they do. So but just .

like every technology company, you release the product, some of them flat and like it's partially like that is the root of innovation. I guess that's all i'm trying to say here. I'm not trying to be like a super apple more or whatever. I'm just trying to remind us all that if you're into product development, which I think all of us are, um you're going to release things that don't work and that's okay. Like apple has a long history of releasing foreign tors .

that absolutely. But I just think that we went through is particularly weird thing with this because they release there to develop play downtown, downplay. Then I started being like, oh my god, people think it's amazing.

And they poured into IT and became tim cook legacy. And this is IT, and we've unlike. And then they IT turns out that, no, actually it's not IT was a really cool product.

M O, is not a real product, right? And that doesn't mean are going to lose forever. But that means there are way behind, for instance, matter that has millions and millions of headsets, multiple versions working.

has been investing way longer and theyve spent. What do they spent in the first like .

oculus wasn't like ten billion dollars or something.

blew a lot of money. And to like the oculus stuff that also didn't necessarily fly off the shelves.

I think that's true. I one reason this um how approach that we're going to be talking about these two companies for the next five years because like they you know this is really one of the bottle grounds of tech. But what's interesting to me, dave, to is like apple, you're right, like companies can screw up things all the time.

And apple, a lot of things. Apple, I mean, I unfortunately spent years of my life reporting on a television and they never launched, right? And that's just part of the course.

That's just I remember when I was there, Steve launched this speaker. I don't remember what was called I think he was called the ipod high five or something like that IT was like a IT was a beautifully designed speaker that was an absolute flop and there was an entire launch event around IT um and this is Steve .

yeah I probably didn't cost as much to build, I don't know taken but but also I think IT is a very interesting time where you know we're reaching the end of the smart phone era and apple's ability to innovate in hardware is an important question. And you can go into that with high with high confidence. But you know, didn't reo the head of hardware .

just resigned, right? Like retired he'd or just left. There's a lot going on, and I would argue that I think there's actually a bigger strategy shift going on. Um and this is not I don't have any side knowledge, anything but I think you look at all these chess pieces and IT seems clear. I think IT was two weeks ago.

Um you see a bunch of information coming out from I think IT was bloomberg and the guys over there who have do have inside you have an inside track yeah absolutely. They're covering um the homework system, right? And they're suggesting that apple is going na release several devices and perhaps an entire ecosystem of stuff for the home.

And so the way I kind of interpret a lot of this is that I think one of the big legacies here is gonna this canberra. I think if IT is like the cambridge, an computing legacy, which is like the the watch, the ipod prose, the phones, like home devices, potentially devices, this is like a symphony of products working together to do things in your life. Like another example of this is I was at the imagine dragons concert, and for the first time, I put on my airport d's prs and use the new hearing protection mode. And IT was shockingly amazing, like I was so kind of taken a back by how great IT was that um i've always had problems with my ears ringing after concerts and being able to put these on and put them in transparency mode and to have IT perfectly model the music down um you know a level that didn't hurt my ears was pretty amazing.

And so actually you, David, at this concert wearing meter rabies and your airport d Price like covered and speaker sam.

welcome to be in .

his wife, a captain, a little fan in .

IT you should see .

all the other random devices. It's a longing but I look take about time the matter ray bands for a second. It's like for listening to music and walking around town.

So much Better than airports, right? And like I just think it's hard to you know to you cannot pay attention to that, right, which is that a lot of the pieces that felt really like apple proprietary are being chipped away at and they've now sold three hundred thousand of these pro things. And you know oculus sold twenty thirty million units, right? Like that's not a pleasant place to be. That's not a place like oh apples crushing IT, right um that's a place where they look behind .

yeah sure but you know if you move to the rest, right like if this brian uh wrist thing and plus you know the yeah but if you look at what you have to achieve to get this to happen, right? Like you need to get millions of devices on rest and millions of devices on into the glasses format. Like apple arty has millions. And I mean, I don't know what the number is, but we're talking tens of millions, maybe hundreds of millions of devices on rest right now and and in people's pockets in the form of airports. Um you know you you've got a battleground that's playing out in multiple points on .

the body apple out. But when you look at the pieces and the chess pieces and how the words move this year and what i've heard about the iron risk and is is incredible, right? Like you forget the glasses. People love the risk in an it's hard to not say that this is a year that apple to be less bullish on apple, not more bullish on apple and shockingly more bullish on mark and what's going on a meta in terms of being, oh my god, these actually start breaking hardware. That's good.

Yeah, I agree. I actually told action here.

And like I just think it's really hard to sit here and be like don't worry about apple that their first V, R headset went great.

I don't think good, dick. So what do you think apple needs do to change the tide then? I mean, that seems like there's like an executive shakeup starting to happen. Obviously, have apple intelligence that's continuing to iterate .

and launch is also years behind one.

Glad you brought that up because you know it's so interesting to me talk about sandbagging apple intelligence. I think it's coming out in its first margin next week. And creed federally and others are doing a tour just lowering expectations.

They're sitting down on the record with journalists I saw join a turn at the journal and being like, don't expect you to be good at. And I think that's just so interesting and maybe you know it's just playing the expectation game and for those you know ability. So this is basically putting A I and more of the services and e mail, apple mail, right, that some of that stuff and maybe some enhancements to theory.

But but I think the question of also apple and AI is really interesting. We've talked about a lot. Dave made a convincing case of how with their a and language models and on device, right, there's really cool stuff. I you know there clearly.

I mean, I was talking to some people in the world of A I regulation and I said, OK what? You know? what? what? what? So and those company posture went through the whole list to what about apple? We have to heard from apple, right? And and so I don't know, like is the bet that by partnering with others, like open the eye and geri and tweet, they can co up what they need from AI services without investing more money than god? A good one maybe like it's actually really interesting strategy is the opposite of that is investing in A I 嗯。

having used IT for the last few weeks.

oh yes, dave, please hold on. Davies used apple intelligence. Tell us, Steve.

Now I just think that um the the large models have almost nothing to do with the experience that they're delivering on apple intelligence right now.

What's the most magical thing about IT? What's the thing we're going to .

use and be like cool I think the fiction summize ation is really powerful.

Oh shit, what happens to the information push IT actually makes you .

engage more for what it's worth like if you send like if the information sends five notifications, it'll summarized IT in one and then when you click IT opens IT up and shows you all of them um similarly like group a group texts it'll take group tax and you know let's say you been in meetings or whatever hanging out your kids for the night. Put your phone down, you come back and actually summarizes the conversation, the group conversation for you which I find to be really valuable now.

is IT like specially for what threads, by the way, we get really behind on what's up. I can just summarize like the last twenty things.

but how is that doing that? So it's the O O S. level.

So IT can summer as what IT summaries the notifications and if you have your notifications turned on on what's happened, every message coming in and is a notification that will summarized all of those .

into like one notification IT will summarize inside of imessage. So you know when you're inside, I message that summarizes is the chat can't do that. And what's up, of course.

And are these like breakthrough use cases that you know are like knowledge based use cases that the foundational models are doing? no. But are they great applications of this model type? yes.

like. And IT will be actually I think, the first time a billion people use A I in a you know tiny way. Um they won't .

even know they're you though that's .

the thing is also eat these things out like I can summarize emails quite easily and IT sumi zing, I got like you won a summary of your unready moms and .

I mean but it's not by default just know like back to my devil in the default like the default on IOS once this enables is I base summer zia all of your notifications AI summarizing of your email if you're email user AI summarizing of um all of your chat threads it's showing up all over the place and also theory just works Better like IT just works Better now IT us know we've all been using theory yeah even that sounds right.

A super low bar siri, relax. All of these things have been nonsense for ten years, right? IT is a dramatic shift. Like when you talk to theory now, IT just is good at talking to you that .

answers the question. Like can book an open table reserve because that was the onic example .

when they want.

that was their example. And I don't know if I can .

do IT that look not an account of three point five iland. Our company. Now that's incredible manufacturing. I have more their hardware surrounding me this moment than any other device by a mile. I probably I so no one's counting, but it's hard it's kind of hard to foot the fact that the stocks never been higher. But I actually think strategically, they're never been a weaker in terms of what this next generation looks like.

Just the question. And actually, it's a good time to bring up china.

Well, I think it's worth asking. Ask them the same question we asked last week.

Prit, yeah, would you do so? So like like f samer CEO of .

apple was unlike apple.

If you're running apple, what are you going to do? Sam.

the great question. I mean, the problem, you can acquire anything because a vantine trust.

I know that's what I was going to say. I was like the easy answer is acquire bunch shit to get ahead.

You can acquire a lot of little things.

You can acquire cyp to stable in ba lab.

No, that's too expensive. Just that that been too expensive.

Lena must like the colors and brothers.

We have a lot of things. And offline they could acquire .

requires ripe. And just like slowly, like turn off payment options for all your competitors. slowly.

Not a good answer. We need a real strategic answer here.

Now I mean, I look, I think the answers are three point five two and other company, you find great people. You do everything right? Like is what you do.

We could do everything mean you you probably .

the question in my mind, and i'm not an apple special at all, I just look at now.

but it's time at apple, you're shifting to a wartime strategy. Like what's your wartime strategy?

How we cook to like nicely, retiring to supply chain ageing and promote someone who's a real visionary leader who has a vision for the company that isn't you know more efficiency. Um you probably actually I mean, the question is whether apples very person.

I don't know.

The question is apple is very secret strategy to development like the question is is like has IT run course, like because the culture need to change and they need to be more emotive in public, right? And they need do what every other internet company is doing right? Um should they be in that? The question right is like their entire appropriate development and and is very, very different other .

time companies. It's partially because of hardware, sam. Hardware iteration cycles are just long, so you'd have to split the strategy.

And two, right? So you're suggesting an internet software strategy, I don't know. Or do you ether it's hardware in public more.

The thing is very hard to know without being on the inside is it's the problem is that the mistakes they've made because it's hardware and long lead time and A I stuff takes time, is year, are years in the rear view mirror like these these this is not like a slow moving car crash. If it's a car crash, right, because the stuff takes a long time and is slow. And so it's really, really hard to like know what you do today when the tanker is missing. Potentially you know it's possible um you do nothing and you just see how that plays out. But I think if we're going to do something, you know you're making these long term bats and you probably are betting on alternate models at how you Operate and build um what you're doing right now more.

And what do you think of john turnus?

Uh they seem to be, I don't know, john um we've um met in passing but um you know seems to be I mean I ve just read the articles so whether or not he's being position or not, I have no idea.

Yeah well, that's their position him .

as the .

next in line I don't know .

about without doubt that's like.

yeah, they're calling him .

time cooks greatest achievement .

because and he is he is on the hardware side. And so that's the question of like I .

don't think he is forty nine.

So with the stocks never been higher, like this is the problem with be slow moving efforts, right? Is that you know, you look at the number, like these things take years to develop, and that's why I think is particularly hard to manage. These types of companies is like not a quarter of a quarter of thing.

You're not a hedge fund, right? You're not trading. There isn't the thing you do with immediate doping chaos. It's hard to know if you're doing well, but I was said the indication this year is just I think it's hard to argue that the long term forecasts for apple is oh my god, these guys are crashing everything.

I think that, sam, your point about do everything is right. I guess like earlier on, I was saying, I think that this cambridge, an computing, uh, strategy shift, if that's what's happening, is probably the right wartime strategy.

It's like how do you put a device in all of the most important parts of people's lives, right? Like it's clear there's one missing from the home um that like the whole family can interact with uh you've already got stuff on the rest. It's clear that the eyes are gonna be something a big deal.

I think that's probably okay. Um I think that small devices organized in symphonies like is like the thing that is going to be the future and that you're going to have to be in all these different places. And I think that like continuing to be great at that is like actually the right strategy and not trying to be like head to head.

I don't know. I don't know that i'd be head to head with meta. Actually, I think i'd be way more a broad um in terms of my deployment of my hardware promise in my own device.

Soft really want this vision. You guys gave me an another article which is like a graphic of the body and then like that who's fighting over the device for like which part? But like .

it's like only fans for the .

penis god. I know that's onna become a social clip for this episode. I'm already nervous .

than those too. That's why he said that. Like, guys come on for the body .

and that's a very high value part of the body. Think with that, you know like.

but did you I do have the .

new orring and it's like.

let to fight for the finger.

Summer, you wing you're .

lingo in lingo. I maybe there .

is is there an a rectifier function device?

Now let's check out the lingo.

Yesterday I ordered IT, but i'm afraid to put.

the needle is enormous. Honestly, IT is enormous. If I got all my god, a big middle, I felt nothing.

Everybody says that, but it's still a big needle. I'm sitting here going right, Jason. Sam said, this is good, but this needle is huge.

I opened IT and even I was like, that's a big needle. And I was like, this hurt. And I was like, one, two, three. I didn't like this. Feels, I actually find with this.

this elt like nothing. I was very surprised. What does do? Like, what if you fall in your ARM? And like, I mean.

I have been follow my army, but it's good and I were recording episode on watching my books level, daddy, like this is what I do now on my apple device, right?

I'll put IT on tonight. I've just been kind of freak out by the needle.

It's my only thing is, you know, having used IT for two days is that someone who does not have diabetes is not hudgers. And clear to me what the data is. It's like if I eat a thousand six years, IT goes up. And when I run, IT goes down and about finding Spikes .

that you shouldn't that you weren't expecting or that were yeah .

maybe you're just very regulated IT you are training for america.

Great shape of the thing i've figured out is which is good is I actually think I have to research this, but I think there's a high performance, awfully used for this, which is one, I think, talking to my trainer, trainer mike, that what happened yesterday, I ran for ten miles and you watch your blood sugar drop, but then your body, like IT comes back. And I think that good. That means your body like switches, energy production that maintain. And the second thing is I think you can if you have a continuous cool modern, you can start timing nutrition like to help they even I thought that .

was kind of the point, not just for high performance training, but if you're train, if you're a person is be in shape and eat well and have good nutrition like that is what you want to do.

what you clearly don't want, massive Spikes, right? And it's good. I've i've confirmed, by the way, that the David bars that claim m to have no sugar in them do have no sugar in them because they have no.

you're using your lingo to test your protein bars.

This is good. Although I am worried, I tried the vo my poop test, which tells me that I have too much. I shouldn't so much trout, which I don't eat. And now I think .

that might be peptides. Oh, and pet.

so the fish peptides .

seem like there a problem.

I want to do that. I actually been meaning to try IT.

It's important to test everything all.

It's a little bit of a headshake because the marketing makes IT seem really great and IT is cool. IT tells you not so much trout, Normal food to the bion folks.

drought and fish cap tides of the same thing.

One there is one day in switch, which is that you sent your poop in a vile fine and then they like good we will tell you with the results are in four weeks after you fill out like a ten thousand point survey .

is a limiting problem with all microbiome tests. They're all off like this. I thought biome was going to be a Better.

simpler er certain a great sales pitching. I'm not against IT. I'm just saying the delays of setting. And then they also really they really want you to tell you everything about you. They can like customize and sell you more shit and like it's like you to feel like like twenty months of surveys just because you want your pop test.

you guys should be happy you're not a woman because now they have vaginal tests where you send .

in like I used camp yeah .

and they test all of you like microby, I mean china and bacteria and all these different place.

I ve always wanted to find the smart toilet that can .

just do all things done right now. Mart.

toilet.

i'm not sure, i'm suppose, say we want to live, but there is a smart toilet deal in flight right now with friends leading. So where do .

we go from here, guys? We started, we talked about the future, the media, great. You want to talk about.

I anna, talk about, I just wanted give like an fia about go where A I think the new york times rote about this. It's really sad. But I also think it's something we should be thinking about as a collective of solution valley, which is that, like G A fourteen year old boy in florida committed suicide after many months in a deep relationship with his chatbot on character A I. And they pulled his parents, like, pulled excerpts of his chat and sort of like figured out they were like, kind of romantic relationship in the chapter, was telling him that, like, the only way to be together was to, like, leave the world and bobble all these different terrible things in the boy minute suicide. And I like, I don't think this is the first time this is going to happen, obviously, character eyes figuring out what to do about this in the future, but just like one of these really bad implications of A I box and people's relationships in the long, and I said epidemic and .

all of these things happening at once, just way till the A I start betting on um what is IT uh assassination marketplaces to make more big coin.

No, god, this just went really dark.

I'm sorry, went dark. T what I think is important to talk about because I think collective.

but is there data around what happened? I guess like that's the thing that obviously like i'm a of mental health advice, like always been focused on this part of the internet. Um but is there data around what exactly happened? What went arrive with the conversation?

Yes, but I I think so far, it's in the form of a lawsuit, right, which isn't to say not true. It's could be entirely.

but we might be missing a lot of let's also goes back .

to like teens and mental health, which we've talked about a lot before. And like character A I terms of service require the users to be thirteen in the united states. And so like, like what other safety controls to exist with chatbot, with A I, with all of these different tools that could go high?

Like and I ve been advocating forever, we need a national identity service that would you enable people to actually verify?

The thing is interesting. This is no different than social media, which is people say shady things to each other on the internet. And like the interesting is liability moving. Like how IT moves, right? Because always sudden is not a liability with crazy people on the internet is the liability with the companies that are running the boys yeah.

I think that's an excEllent point. But I also think the nature of a chapo t technology and eighteen is very different from just like reading social media post both of which can have effects on your mental health but like you know I do believe that after many months plus of if you read IT by Kevin ruin the new york times people should read the piece like um it's clear that this kid developed relationship with the chat the very much affected him mentally and that and so yeah we absolutely have to be talking about this absolutely yeah it's not.

I mean, we've all been through many waves of disruptive technology coming. There have been a lot of negative effects, have been a lot of positive effects. I I personally think we're at a point where we can just take the argument that there are pluses and minds' to all of this IT may be the reality, but some of the minneapolis are devastating.

And uh, I mean, this is an argument that perhaps the minus is are smaller than we've been thinking of, right? Like the the narrative has been one of, oh, we should worry about nuclear warfare and you know biological weapons and all of these big, big, big problems. And rather than focusing on the very, very small ones, which is if a chatbot talks to a kid and leads them in the wrong direction over three months time, like this can be the outcome and I can happen at massive the scale.

That's not what it's worth, but that's exactly what we've been talking about. A tiktok, just a robot instead of chinese propaganda. It's the exact same story, right, which is like chip, chip, chip away distributed control the narrative algorithms. Bob law, this is a .

great point, sam. Actually most people, I still don't think, associate tiktok with being one of the first AI, you know uh, product scale that did this first. Now it's just much more direct. It's like you're talking to the algorithm rather than the algorithm ing up content that leads you .

in the direction. The first, I think this is a very different, to be honest, right? Like it's just like our new sourcing IT basic are sourcing of memes from humans and then feeding them properly as someone versus writing your own content. But you are also souring IT from other people and reneging IT.

Yeah but I I say in my only point is I just don't think most people realized that they like interpret the interface as the interface and they don't think of these things as the same thing.

On that note, friends, I am keeping someone waiting.

All you have a VISA in the pool house.

I do, but I don't think this one wants to be on the camera.

I hope not there. The maker of the smart toilet.

because I will talk to them. You guys.

okay. Morns, well, he really .

loved.

No, we can do IT without him, but we'll go. Episode ys, there's a lot happening.

Lot of the important thing, yes, we saw travel's keli I R L last weekend. Yeah, where on the football field play the s do you guys.

how do you feel that like .

Taylors gna lose .

the election like a tailor election? Well.

cantor .

trump, of course not. But I can have an opinion on what's going to happen that's different from I shouldn't say of course no i'm getting not .

for business but .

ah but the 嗯 it's no guys we're not going to get you know our audience loves us but they don't like when we pretend we know about stuff we don't know about which is spare。 Audience, but um but we should .

not politics talk about you .

on a secretary of state that we talk okay friends, thank you for another fun week and our listener's viewers, do you follow us on youtube? Our facial expressions, especially mind when sams talking, do. IT to the episode you can also regret new lock, which will gradually get more later glass as her um whatever crisis progresses. So with that, hope you guys have a great week in weekend and we'll see next week.

Hi, I guess .

that.

If you enjoying this show, please leave us a virtual high five by reading IT and reviewing IT on apple podcast, spotify, youtube or wherever you get your podcast. Find more information about each episode in the show notes, and follow us on social media by searching for at more or less at dave morn at lesson at j lesson. And as for me, i'm at break. See you guys next time.