We’re On The Brink of A Global Shipping Crisis | Pirate Wires Podcast #29 🏴‍☠️
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Defense secretary loyd Austin announced global task force to stop yemen's hooky rebels from attacking ships.

The government of yemen started launching attacks on commercial shipping. Prices of ocean fade from asia to eur up three to five times. Go look at photographs at their army.

These are not like red tag rebels. They are fully well funded military. I think their ambition is to make the israel palestine, please, spread into a wider sort of regional conflict. What big question is like whether this can be solved with a naz? Or does IT require ground forces?

Welcome back to the pot. We have a uh special emergency episode on the sus canal crisis feature ing. Uh the one the only the legendary rio Peterson, the CEO of flex port.

First of all, thank you for joining me on the p ryan. Flex port is a multinational supply chain management and logistics company, and ryan himself is the former focus of A P. I route SHE posting guide of silicon valley.

And this was the piece where I first started to write about the trend or phenomenon really of, in this case, a resupply and management company or a social media company or any kind of technology company sort of educating the public on their space in real time as if they were themselves in a media figure and use a snappers of this historically for a really long time. Um you would see this, you would have a business show and the CEO would come on and kind of explain what what's going on. But IT was really left to the media personalities to discuss any topic that was happening in the world.

Now under a social media are the sort of mature social media scale that's really no longer of the case. And I do think that you represent this new thing that exists. You do a great job of IT.

You're always educating me and it's your twitter, not the york times, which is how I sort of have been following the U. S. Canal crisis.

Twelve percent of all global trade go through the red sea, according to the international chAmber of shipp. And goods entering or existing, the have to go through this point right here. The boil mandeb straight IT feeds into the red sea.

IT also borders huth y control territory in yemen. But perhaps more concerning for global trade, these assaults are jeopardy further north through the U. S. canal. And that is one of the most important global trade pathways responsible for thirty percent of all the world's container trade.

What is happening right now in the red sea, people might have seen some tweet of yours, some conversation on twitter.

well um starting in november but really picking up steam in december in the middle of december, the second f of december um the uh relaxed the government of yemen. We call them rebels because they're not recognized. Ed, what if you go look at photographs of their these are not like rag tag rebels.

They are fully well funded military that is a control of most of the state of women. Started launching attacks on commercial shipping. And there are been, you know the one crazy viral video that helicopter landing instead of special forces Operators from the from the U M I. Military taking over and they're still holding those um the sailors hostage. And that was a car career that was like one of the first things.

Then they started shooting missiles and hitting um hit a few container ship so far and so now all the world's container ship shipping line almost all um have decided to right around the southern p of africa and no longer used the sus canal road IT takes twenty to twenty five percent longer to go from asia, from china really to the to europe, twenty twenty five percent depending on wear in europe. Your headed and where you're starting. Um that's that's a really big deal, not just because of delays, which annoying and and tough for businesses to manage around.

But but you're if you takes twenty five percent longer, IT IT reduces the three put if um IT reduced the capacity of the network um and if you know Prices are driven by supply and demand. So if you drop the supply of shipping by twenty and twenty five, we expect that the Price will go way up and that is what's happen. Prices from of ocean fraide from asia to eur up three to five times um Prices from asia to the U S.

Are also way up um about uh two and a half x for asia to the east coast of the united states and it's even up fifty percent for asia to the west coast, which is just shows you our inner related and interconnected the global shipping markets are because like the suicide is not disrupting your ship from china to the U S. coast. But what's happened is that the Carriers need more ships to fulfill the capacity for asia to europe.

So they pull some ships off asia to the U. S. lines. And next thing you know, you you have a capacity crush. As of friday, the stock markets were pretty much flat.

Um if there is a chance for this despite al into a sort of major I mean, IT seems like a crisis already if if it's somehow continues on um why do you think markets aren't quite so fearful?

Yeah I don't know. In stock market seems to be much smaller than me and much more or than me at the same time I can start market. Um you know maybe maybe people think it's kind of be short term.

Um I don't know, maybe war is good for business. Um hopefully that's not the case, but that's the cynical take. Um the um if if it's only last a couple of weeks, I don't think it's you know a big deal. But the promise that there's no reason in my view, there's a reason to think this is a quickly resolved. The united states has sent a entire Carrier strike group to the region but they're not launching offensive attacks to sort of take out the the basis or even I mean, this is not an easy thing to do.

There are effectively terrorist attacks even if their well funded sort of run by a pretty um I don't know, advanced is the right word on a proper military, at least from the photos but it's not easy to just take these things down as evidence by the fact of arabia ia, which is very well funded and was back by the united states. They read war. The studies are at war with yen from twenty fifteen until last, until twenty twenty three until last year. Um we add like A A the truth um a ceased e so if they couldn't stop IT, I don't know why we suddenly think like we're going to overnight stop IT.

right if rather forces number something like two hundred thousand the um powers or booties I don't want to pronounce IT, only read IT. What are they? Do you know .

what the you know I I really don't know uh how to pronounce IT, I would how how t but everybody says who the um so know world war, world war two church intentionally mispronounced the name of the nazis on purpose without the entire words. I think it's okay.

So the hoods, two hundred thousand of these guys, they have taken out the entire soon as canal. We've now sent our military out there. Um it's crazy how much uh uh disruption to the entire planet as such a smaller roup can do.

And IT IT touches on something that I talked about, what palmer lucky on an earlier podcast. As technology advances, IT seems to kind of equalize the playing field and you have the situation we were like really small groups of people can oppose massive even like the most powerful army in the world. It's like gorilla warfare gets IT seems like easier and easier as time goes on. Um you're advising the cabinet.

uh let's say hypothetical situation.

How do they even think about this right now? How how do you stop what is effectively I mean, you say if the government directing of like terrorists, I don't even know I don't even know where I would begin. I mean, what what can you do to secure the red sea and if you can't, I mean, is there a chance that that that that can I would just be at risk forever yeah .

um well as is is very tough to be a leader but IT is not easy to be like armchair courter bag tell people what to do the reality is know the united states is not made a lot of friends by invading countries in the midst east over the last couple of decades and I don't think anyone really wants us to do that uh, out there.

You know maybe the business community does, maybe some people have a you know, people in the shipping industry might prefer IT. But if you look at the european and governments IT honestly affects you are much more than the united states. I am a little surprised that europe peas and said, hey, this is not acceptable.

This is cutting off our major trade lanes. Um I I I would put a lot of pressure on european s to step up. And if they don't want to do is to like, well, I mean, the us.

Barely uses the U S. canal. IT does. IT is a shorter route to get cargo from asia to the east coast. But like marginally shorter, IT saves about eight per saver, is going around the southern tip of africa and freely.

If the panama and I was working at full speed, at access capacity, you could, you could move the cargo from asia to the east coast via panama. Fast just as fast. Forget exact difference in time, but it's it's comparable.

So um yeah I I would put a lot of pressure on the dip allies are otherwise in europe to say, ah this is kind of you're backyard this effect to your oil flows out of their energy. Most of their energy comes from the middle of their trade goods. They don't want to step up and defended.

I don't see why if it's the case, that in order to stop this you need a land invasion like I see no reason for that to be U. S. Troops, but that's my persons opinion.

I know these people there like to see us go be the global police and take care of business. And i'm just not sure that the world wants that up from us and I think works pretty ugly. So I wouldn't do that hard.

The role of private business um for example, I mean, you guys have been doing a lodge is on the information side, is there anything that you can sort of bake into the product to assist in any way? I knows a kind of crazy question.

Mercy running the ships that their ships that are going through and they made a value in attempt. They were the first one before they got hit with a mysql or just knew I just missed originally and then they put a lot of pressure on the us to kind of as send that current group over and secure the sees um united tes had had one destroyer there and now we've got an entire career group um to then the after the U. S.

Deployed major naval assets to the region and mercy said, hey, let's a will give another go and then the very next day they ve got hit with a the ship, the murky o kangxi got hit with a missile and they said, ups never mind and they started going around. Um so yeah it's um you know it's it's if you run ships, it's kind of a very difficult position to be in. Um whether you're going to put people's lives at risk, what how do you determine if it's safe? I mean, is that because there's been no missile this week, is that now it's safe for is IT a mark through like what's that how long do you need to know that it's been no missiles from our perspective? You know like ford does not Operate in your ships.

We we put cargo and other people's PS. Um so what the best we can do and IT is very valuable is we've updated our kind of dashboards and our data street um aps, the data that we send to our customers to just make a very clear what the best new estimated transit time is. What's the route that happening, got thousands of containers that have been rounded around the southern p of africa is just like making a really clear to customers what the new arrival times are and then just tons of hard work replanning.

And we've got one customer we've been fighting. I keep hearing about this one customer and talking to them directly myself, but we have twenty containers. Customer of hours makes a perl and they they recently set up manufacturing in Jordan uh and so George actually as a small port on the red sea in ocbc um the famous okba where uh t Lawrence, one more of his first battles there abia so that um that poor is on the red sea has um and now all the Carriers that used to stop there on their way through to have basically stopped and so we're scrambling ying to figure out, okay, how do we get this twenty containers out of okba right now? Kind of an interesting in case study of like dramatic dow stream chaos that can fall out of this.

So the more than we talk about IT, if there's not a workable political solution or a tenable political solution involving the american military, and I mean, maybe there is, but we haven't seen IT on the table yet. Actual ship seem pretty much incapable of defending themselves. I mean, you can talk about a situation where you're arming them and things like this.

But again, given the technological constraints, our our realities, it's it's very easy to disrupt for a small, very motivated group of people to disrupt shipping in that area. Um IT does kind of look like what we need is the panama t canale to be like up and running in full capacity and that might be the future that that is just like the areas is kind of potentially lost a trade, which I mean, historically, this has been, no, this has been, this has been the trade out forever, right? The modern history for .

thousands of years, i'm in sensor Augusts shed to invade them into control that shop point in a right around the turn of the millennia, two millennia ago. It's yeah but these days wax away. I mean, I don't think you you know it's forever lost to history.

The U. S. Was closed completely from sixty seven until seventy five. Uh I following you know that um israel war with the egypt or during that war in beyond um is hard to image. I mean this was so valuable to civilization and there are so many forces that wanted to be open and even in a like china does not ended IT from the ships having to go around IT makes them less attractive as a manufacture.

So um and many other countries too so no even india was like down there india set there are special forces down and um when A A ship that had been boarded by pirates and clear cleared IT know it's like Daniel navy stepping up. I think there's a lot of countries that will egypt doesn't want this study. Arabia has got, uh, geta.

Its major report is on the red sea and they're trying to build a new new one as part of new this this big fancy new project. They are trying to make that a huge port, uh that kind of useless of the rec is not being transition by a thora of the worlds containerization. I think exod is going to take this very seriously. I'd hardly imagine that in the long term a small group of is able to cut off uh, maritime access for this such an important choke point. But but h, you know, the world doesn't just train towards progress all the time.

Hey, guys, banks for listening to the pie wires pod, make sure you like, subscribe, comment below and share this with your friends. Speaking of the small group, I think there is just I have a lot of confusion as to why they're doing this. Um what is what is the motivation? It's like partly there's like prior component and IT seems like pirates are always just wanted to fuck you up.

And that's just like the way IT is you want to be like raping and pillows ing in doing whatever part of IT IT feels sort of like the e walks and star war is just like throwing stones that have the giant at the giants and bringing them down. There was like this is our territory. It's like that kind of energy um but that's my sort of ignorant look in I mean, do you have any sense of sort of what is the motivation and um what is maybe what is the path out that, that people are kind of hoping for? Is not just this. What you're saying here is like the indians get involved, the chinese get involved, everyone else gets involved. Um let's start with motor clear .

that it's um it's about israel and trying to stop the the blanket of gaza and um you know so IT ultimately this I take their ambition is to make the israel palace in conflict spread into a wider a sort of regional conflict um and you know it's interesting because when I tweet to me and wants you shoot missiles at civilian ships like you sort of a terrorist right I know I doesn't seem like that complicated issue um but when I the people come out of the woodward come and say no this is a legitimate part of a legitimate struggle for the palace inan freedom and it's um yeah it's obviously on the issue is pretty raught kind of like lots of people on will take that time surprisingly because to me it's like you are terrorism is kind of no place in the world and sort of obvious when you blow up these these ships that have nothing to do with israel and you know the sales from the Philippines or something have families back home and crazy um the who ties have a slow game if you it's like a here let me google at rao que. It's a death to amErica that's part of IT.

When is IT not a group?

Slow is god is great death to america, debt is occurs on the use Victory to islam is their slogan. You know so you kind of say, well, they want a little bit more than the end of the, you know, a ceasefire and gas that seems that they are asking for more than that. And but people say that that's not to be taken seriously.

The slogan. Just here, words or something, i'm not traveling to you in any time soon. Me, yeah, the death to amErica thing always gets me .

if I get IT again, this comes up and and we're told this like, well, this is just you have to understand the cultural context, right? It's always that's always the suggestion.

But if you just back up and contemplate the cultural context, um IT will all seem less terrifying as an american or I would terrifying the wrongful D I live safely in america, alarming, let's say, as an american or um thought provoking I certainly want to double click learn a little bit more uh but you you have so you have clearly then I mean this is a what a sad like to me is like you trying to go to u military into conflict as you said, to sort brought in the conflict where sort of smartly waiting IT out. You mentioned earlier of conversation that the french were actually protecting their own ships through the region. Ah can you describe IT a little bit and as a precedent there, do you see that expanding in practice?

Yes, so the french navy has been escorting. There's a major french ocean Carrier are called C M A, C G M based out of my side in france. And there there are one of, I think, that the third, second or third largest a container ship company, they'll be the second largest in the next couple years with all the new deliveries i've ordered.

They, uh, they are the only one that continues to transit the red sea right now. And they are being escorted by the french navy. And the french navy said, we're gonna protect other ships, just our own. And yeah, there's absolutely precedent for this.

This is the way the world work until one thousand hundred and forty five of the inner world, world two in the united states, that we're going to be, we're going to patrol the global navy and allow everybody to ship anything, anywhere. 啊。 Before world were two IT was every men for themselves on the high, on the high seas, in the colonial powers, would protect their own ships.

And ec dam. And you had to have an envy if you wanted to do global trade. And the right, the current era of globalization is LED by the american order to say, no, anybody can trade and we'll just keep the seas open free from pirates and and rebel forces. So it's definitely a really interesting point.

You're for the britten woods kind of stuff and everything that followed this is I and peers, I am right about this. This is where I first encounter. And I guess what what I mean is, is there are president for the french sort of circumventing the U. S.

You would think that I mean, this is if the united states, if the role historically has been of the role the navy globally and robot two has spent to protect shipping rounds and IT is sort of not at this point or or if IT is, it's trying it's like sort of half handed. Does this alter the relationship in some may be permanent sense between amErica and the rest of the world? I think if we're not doing this and that agreement post world war feels sort of over, if the french half to now do this themselves and like everyone has to do with themselves, that's a that's a new world order completely that .

the yeah is is a new world order if that's what happens. Um you know I mean good to the french is at least stepping up in doing something and most of the other worlds nations aren't there at all uh or aren't capable of of being there um and you know it's really an interesting question to the euro's want us to play that role or night um they don't seem to be you know you would think they'd like thank you. AmErica will also help you out.

Let us send our little figure whatever we get a down to support the danish, the danish navy hasn't one for yet. But by a large, you know, you haven't seen a huge amount of other government stepping up. They haven't wanted to.

The way I understanding is the Operation prosperity, guardian, is what the U. S. Nav is going this Operation and the other allied nations and navy haven't wanted even where they like the friends, there's deploying ships to the region, but they don't want them to be under U.

S. common. And so they're maintaining their own command and their coordinating and participating in ways. But they're not saying, hey, we'll just give you the ships and let you run the exercise. You sort of how world were two went when everybody you know let eyes and hour take to be the supreme commander?

Um I don't know how bigger a deal that is, but if if they're unable to keep IT open, you know it's also interesting like how the french able to guarantee the security of these ships while the U S. can. Are they say here .

who know you clear? U S. canner. Won't if it's I don't know what's going on there, but I want to know on the trade piece, what are the ways in which this so you've now when you're taking so much trade through us, given round off of the table or redirecting IT rather um that's going to put pressure elsewhere. What are the ways that trade roads can break down that maybe people are not thinking about and and how I would you hope uh, that people work around those issues?

Yeah I mean, it's always these choke points. There's there's a handful of them in the world that sort of this one is the U S. In the red C N moco, the straight of moloch which is where singapore is located.

IT is the other big one is ways around you receive of africa ana animals actually much tougher because the um going around the southern tip of south amErica is like this. We'll see how this plays out on the cape of good hope as well. But the seas are very, very rough down there and it's so much further around and the new article yeah yeah it's like, you know the straight majella is no no joke.

I don't think you just send the container ship through there and and everything's fine. Um and um so and and it's much more in the america's backyard and our we need depend of mechanical al for american economic and national security interest. So I don't think that we would allow that.

But hey, there's things like bad engineering or drought or whatever the case may be down there. Um the world tends to adapt. You know it's the global economy is pretty robots. Lots of people making decisions in their own self interest, a route find a way they right around the so higher ocean free Prices. At the end of the day, my my very rough math, and I need to get smarter on this and find smarter people that need to do the math.

But I think the higher ocean free Prices, if they last at these levels in asia, euro will increase the Price of consuming goods that are shipped by ocean by two or three percent um that's a big deal. But does that destroy the whole economy from now? Is like a one time increase. It's not that you get two percent every year forever. Increase of inflation is a one time boost, and then from there will be the same year after.

So its global economies robust. But IT, I think the lesson recovered was IT may be more fragile than we thought. And when you talk about the panel canal, as given the U.

S. Is off the table. I mean, we don't really do much there anyway, but there's more pressure on now in the U. S.

In these couple other child points you mentioned my imagination just kind of going and sort of the world without the pano canal for any amount of time, in addition to no access to the U. S. canal.

What would that look like? And I would not expect IT on on how IT might happen. I think that there are a million ways that might happen. And I just i've become interested in general, just like worst case scenarios um three thinkable scenarios what just if you wouldn't mind speculating, what might that what would something like that uh, lack of access to both of those communes do to global trade?

Uh, well, you know you immediate be back in a situation where all the containers reaching the united states have to come to the west coast um well, all the ones coming from asia and that would be you'd have those huge bottle next which could not handle the capacity on the west coast um and then you know you tried to do rail and truck across the country, but we would break out, we would be able to keep up um and unlike the last time, you know the last time when this happening cover all ships from back top off the coast alarm, which that was driven by demand. There was like a twenty percent increase in container volumes driven by consumers flush with cash from and board .

at home shopping. And you're got to get you a journal.

And somehow if you can go out to the bar, you just go like, let me buy something. Amazon.

you couldn't bind a car. IT was like, I mean, imparted that the narrows ago. My god, it's because there's no material like them on, you know, it's because people won't stop buying cars.

They are flying. Yeah yeah. Actually that was demand LED that's very different and something that's truly supply LED like a shut down of the canal.

We you know something to keep an eye that haven't heard much talk about, but at the end of next year, thing is in september this year, she's me not next year, I always forgetting only twenty four. Uh, in september, I wanted say, the east coast of the union that represents all the long short men on the east coast. So the port workers, their contract ends in september of twenty and twenty four.

And if they go on strike, effectively experience what life is like without the pending market because there's no point using the can there's nobody available on low the ships when they arrive. So that's going to be something to monitor is whether they can get the that negotiation done to a level that satisfies the union. Um and then the other thing that happened, I I haven't seen the update in a couple days but uh uh I need to go check the um but the by administration close the the main rail crossing from mexico into the U S.

Or the second largest rail crossing because too many migrants were riding on the trains coming yet um and so all this cargo, a lot of decent of cargo comes up from mexico, but rail even including something that brought to mexican ocean ports and then raised up up, up from mexico up to texas and so they close that um to like a lot of things happening at once. They can disrupt supply. Chase, I had someone ask me on twitter.

This is this like really our our things melting down to an extreme degree. Is that just because like we all have real time access to information now in this stuff always way down and. You know I don't know me questions .

IT is right and the U.

S. Was closed from sixty seven and seventy five. So it's not like this stuff has never happened before. But ah that's the big question.

This is a question that I struggled my own writing because also in addition to having so much access information where Young right? Like we don't, I don't. I was around in at least I was not cognition in even the nineties, little in the eighty, seventy, sixty beyond. Like I mean, I wasn't there for that.

So it's it's you have to go back and read and um then it's a question of I don't know if so if writers were maybe less estero back then um or or what uh but given the tweet that you just mentioned, kind of hitting you as I feel like this is all breaking down at once or or what I mean that your sense is that I sort of just raised this question of the canal is a kind of worse case. What if but do you do you see things getting worse? Or are you hopeful that that the U. S. Canal crisis will be improved in and nothing else will sort of break down and we're going going to get back on the road here?

I think um you know optimism is generally been the right answer or over the course of last few centuries, things to tend to get Better. Um I mean, you know the ninety seventies I O I was born at either but h nine hundred and seventies I were like that thousands of political terrorist bombings in the united states like left bombing is like, you know people car bombs and stuff like it's not that crazy um even this thing you know you compare shooting a few missiles and ships to like the things like world war to or you know I mean IT are invaded egypt to try to shut down the sus canal with romal and know desert fox or whatever north africa they sound like half a million troops or something in tanks to attacks so it's like, okay and the scheme of things is like not that bad. What's going on?

I think on the the situation, yemen, one big question is like whether this can be solved with a navy, or does IT require ground forces like that to me? Is that kind of the big questions? Like can you solve this with navy, naval and airstrikes? Or does IT require j soc of the U.

S. Special forces, or full on inventory invasion, invidious invasion to take or or cassady a ababa invade and put an end to IT because that's the big question. I don't I think you see a lot of armchair counter backs out here, so the united states would put a stop to this.

But like that's the the giant to me, that's the line. It's like, yeah okay. I guess if you can just stop IT with air strikes and not put your people's lives at rest and maybe go for IT, but if IT requires you to go, send your troops in there. We didn't make a lot of friends last time we did.

That will not in, not at home either. I mean, who wants to send their friends in amErica off to die in a foreign war for french consumer goods? Nobody like this.

That's over the whole paradise is IT seems quite over to me politically from the left and the right. It's there's there's consensus on the fact that we don't want anything to do with that. And if we don't, then you know as you mentioned, good on the friends for protecting their own ships.

IT does seem increasingly like that is the reality moving forward. And um you know like if you want to be trading goods, you have to be able to protect your own ships and if that is the the future, then that is that's a very, very, very different world. And I I don't think people appreciate how different that world is. Then even ten years ago, right, like this is all changed really rapidly.

And and this is like fingers. I am just constantly being right. Yes, a lot of other predictions there.

He also predicted the rise of argentina, which who saw that coming. I remember when I was first reading in xian, and like five years ago, I think that was the part was I was like, back when I was getting into iran, when I was Younger, the fact that he was a chain smoker really confused me.

You know, he was like, she's a rationalist and that she's chain smoking and just IT was like a weird, confusing point that made me question all of her work with. I hand IT was the one thing that really made me question him was his obsession with argentina like this is just geographically remote. The fact that they are not all dead now says to me that the take don't matter nearly as much as they should because any other country under those political constraints would be gone by.

Now it's because they're so like set up to win um and now we see, uh, I don't want so we see the rise of argentina. I want to get two hybrid volker, but IT does seem like argentina politics are changing very, very fast in a very, very pro market direction. And um i'm very intrigued to see where that goes. I think that could be yet another giant w for Peters. I am.

It's a little away. It's a way for that prediction. You I want to like to see out plays out. But yes, you got ta listen more. I mean, the guys just been right about a lot of stuff.

And yes, and he didn't I don't I can't say I agree with this view because he's sort of a zero some if is law as amErica comes out ahead and we win but ahead of everybody else and everybody y's worth off, including us. I doesn't seem like A W for me so um I I personally believe that like you know a global prosperity and free trade and everybody you know commerce flowing smoothly is good for the U S. And we should be willing to defend IT um but if the people who benefit even more than us aren't willing to defend IT, then I see no reason to step up well.

Well, there are two questions just there. And when we say defend IT, what you're referring to is the system in which our native protects the trade routes and all trade and that's like a major to work. But I don't I don't IT doesn't seem like most people really even think about that at all.

They don't think of that is an important feature of the american LED world. And so it's kind of atrophy over time. People kind of forgot why IT was in place.

They forgot why the american hegemon, I was important, the purpose that served, it's gone. I think it's like there is a chance that people don't remember until it's too late, and at that point will all be sort of stuck back at home. Again, dian talks about about internal trade rounds, but again, I mean, I agree with you, seems like a world without global, or with less global trade would be weavers.

You want a more wealthy, abundant world that is more interconnected, where people can work together and collaborate and spend up new ideas and build new things. I get all that, but as I can keeps sort of beating the drum. It's like a lot of these forces are just totally beyond our control and an inevitable spend a long time since britten woods in the world has just changed its mind on a lot of things. Um this is very you know .

IT takes some hundreds of years to developed from barbarism, civilization but you can go back in .

in an afternoon I do want to ask your opinion on a tweet I saw from maybe oge um he said that the greatest threat, uh the supply chain was facing in the future was global warming. What are your thoughts on that? Just just generally as is he on point or do we have bigger problem? Well.

he didn't say in the future, by the way, said this year the weather here in the future is the ely debate of all you might be right. But in in the present, I think that is definitely people shooting missiles and chips, enforcing all the container ships in the world to go around the tip of africa. Um so now I think that was kind of observed.

yes. So I like the strong vivo that was like a pretty dule tweet that they like kind of like forgot about and I just went out because like I want to go that might have been a reasonable thing to say. Well, right?

That is kind of crazy. Dam you think he's on top of IT that much is scheduling tweet a month in advance is as as possible for then they really do think the globe warming going to be their their focus attention forever reminded me of um actually when the california wildfires were last super super in the news maybe two years ago, all of IT was blamed on global warming. Sort of stripping the government itself of any responsibility for .

land management or the P G.

E capability in any of this uh even in the housing exotic regulations and things like this. IT does come up IT comes up again and again and again as this way to absorb of ourselves for um or of a responsibility for the world I think um much bigger problem forced to ask or answer questions about global warming um but I do want to talk about this about about shipping container is being attacked by terrorists actually actually um on .

the global in topic there's something really interesting that things gone very under investigated which is the blaming um the panama canal. You know we talk about the sus where we get into that about the mythical city ships uh in the in the southern n red sea but it's blocked in the sus. But at the same time right now the panama canal is only Operating at two thirds capacity.

And any time you read an article about this, you're going to say it's because of the drought and then they immediately tried to global warming. But what someone is to go g deeper into this, but i'll have some conspiracy there is here. Some is the in fact, a couple of years ago, they expanded the pana canal and the panama c runs on fresh water.

The U. S. Canal is level is just connects the meditation, ian c, to the red sea.

There's no locks, but the pending marketed runs on press water, meaning there's locks as you go up. And after replanning. h. And so they they allow the fresh, fresh water to flow out. And when they expanded IT, uh, you know within a couple of years, they are not in a fresh water left.

Well, what happens when you make up channel wires that the fresh water flows out much faster and that wasn't a fresh water. I don't know if it's really a drought. I haven't done the research, so I hopeful. Ly, so I get this, get some pie wires spends out here to go. Deep this and see if there's anything to IT.

right? It's this I mean that what that sounds like is an other state capacity problem is this issue where I couldn't say basic because i'm not a structural engineer, but there was a class of engineer who used to exist to could manage problems like this without fAiling catastrophe at every turn, which is, I mean, I know that I ve seen like a high level trend facing the world that is really alarming, just our inability to do stuff. Um well, then you've rejoining me sir IT has been absolutely real as ever stopped to see you online fighting the pirates um and um congrats on all your awesome ensure you're doing IT flex for you. You have really, really been killing it's been awesome to watch um thanks again for joining and catch you guys here this week on friday later.