END THE FED | RABBIT HOLE RECAP #329
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Suffer such a boy's money here to introduce this rip of rabid hole recap was brought you by good friends. Add unchained. Unchained is here to help you Better secure bitcoin, to make IT easier for you to buy bitcoin, to offer you financial services on top of your bitcoin.

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You've had a dynamic where money become freer than free. Let me talk about a fed just gone that all, all the central banks going nuts. So it's all acting like safe haven.

I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to do by their currency, bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, bitcoin is the Victor. I mean, that's part of the bulcke for bitcoin. If not, pay attention, you probably should be, probably should be, probably should be, probably should be.

Saturday morning rap .

let's I can go. Thank you guys for being flexible. My schedules insane here.

I'm pretty oned myself right now. There's a way, there's a way going to fake mustache and trash hand hear at the comments I was going to dress up this year and surprise you on camera.

Were you me for halloween?

I was. I was you for halloween because my wife's idea SHE didn't realized that we were going to record on on a saturday this week, thought we're going to do halloween rip on thursday. But the universities couldn't make that happen.

But he bought SHE.

bought me awake in mustache. I couldn't figure out the .

mash rate before .

I came in here.

Disappointed a bit. I am till believe I was passed down in the bathroom in the comment. Trying to figure out kind of work, shout to my wife, but i'm traveling this week for work.

Had a flight yeah, get push turned into a red eye. SHE loved me play golf yesterday for the unchained first annual White paper day invitations. Great day of an dallas now recording on a saturday and start the happiest way in the world. I love you, baby.

Happy time. One day a one day.

I mean, what we're add .

a shadow to my wife. She's like an awesome. Yeah also a lot of travel.

I'm currently in argentina, first time in argentina. Vives are incredibly hide down here and very bullish. Ed on on argentinians .

blagg e now lai now, cautious optimism turning into a full blown 好的。

So freak this week i'm here as a guest of the human rights foundation um and myself Alice like steam mile suiter block and Albert ellis of the randal's foundation. We met with higher king indian government officials as like a big one delegation and to talk to them about biton .

delegation.

First of all, I never done that before my life. So that was.

did you put that to our jacket?

Yeah, you would be probably. I was. I was a suit. I was a suit for a day. But there .

might .

be a picture that comes out will see but a 我 IT was like ten of us。 They were incredibly Young and they spoke very freely. You know, IT was IT IT definitely .

felt like A.

IT felt refreshing from usual government antics. And so if we went through like this whole, you, why, why this should consider big coin, what I is grape for their people. You know, a human flourishing happens a via freedom, and how I can empower both.

You know, there I can empower both. You know, the country is a whole, but also the individuals and. Part of my I will also started talking about strike and I was like, no strike has twenty thousand users.

And in argentina with basically no marketing. And there has been a lot of demand in argentina for bitcoin, just natural organic demand for bitcoin in argentina. And I even went as far .

spelling .

out uh strike S T R I K E and then the ambassador returns. Ambassador response to me was that he was early a strike .

user polish which is concerned .

um so need this to say I think they understand the opportunity bitcoin, I think they understand the opportunity of less government and less reregulation um and so I just left we all left at me and just incredibly optimistic about the path of this country. And then of course, you know, I ve just spent the last few days here in bo sis. The people are just amazing, very resilient people .

or more about the people what what is a wide gain post mal way coming in instituting .

of where are destroying .

their IOS equip of the irs over there? Are people optimistic me we've heard um if there has been obviously, they've cut the budget. If is, I believe they're a surplus.

Now inflation still high by coming down, I believe there may be in a recession. What are the vides on the street or people happy with with what's going on? They in the roping, the banded office and people are getting their bearing ings. Let's survive beginning.

I think the the Young people are very optimistic and there's kind of a new kind of coming from the perspective of the there's really nothing to lose. Let let's see what happens here. And the older people are, I think, ride fully.

I mean, i'm speaking ing in generalities, but are are are right, ride fully, a bit skeptical and a little bit more cautious with IT. I mean, the last are seventy years or so of government here has been pretty horrible, so to say the least. I mean they have the largest I M F debt burden in the world.

Alex gave a presentation at the bit conf about IT and their people have just basically been saddled with this this massive growing debt um because the past administration. So there's I think gratefully there's a decent amount of scaped ism. Let's see how that actually plays out. But also a lot of optimism going to .

start by bit anything.

You know i'm not there is a little bit of fake news that came out like about the central bank mining bitcoin. Like that was an art installation. They were running a couple of miners as an art installation er as like a side event of the conference.

Um so I I don't think they're quite there yet um but IT seems like IT seems like they're really close to leaning in topic and in a real way. And as as I said before, you know the the people have kind of lead this charge, right? visuals.

There's a lot of demand for individuals to to obtain bitcoin and use bitcoin. One of the things we did was we went to like the like they were us like where they exchange bit in for cash and now was a pretty that was an unreal experience. You know we don't. The people, the people find a way, the people find a way regardless. And and now that there seems to be a government that is also starting to lean in and and and move towards more financial freedom and more freedom in general, I mean, that's like are pouring gasoline on the fire that the people started.

Yeah, just give you hope that we can do IT. Here in america, we were not argentina style. I am a man good to me. I ve always .

found hope and freedom, tech freedom teches me hope and the people that use IT and push the movement forward. And this trip has very much slots fied that yeah.

things are get hard here in the .

united states. I mean, you've been you've been away from the homeland for about week now. Things are escalating as we had toward november fifth election day here in the states. Prediction markets are begetting. The Price kalo mos soaring in the prediction markets relatively to wear SHE is SHE.

That is fifty nine percent to forty percent. Trump is at fifty nine percent. I love about that story.

yeah. I mean, again, relatively closing the gap. A lot of a lot of questions about whether not there seems be fucker with the election, people focus on swing states.

Pensylvania was kind in navara georgian or CarOlinas. He has tense here. And we've got a last minute avenger coming coming to, uh, the side of a the Donald trump campaign to RAM paul. And not sure if you saw this.

but has happened yesterday. I mean, I titled the episode on the fed.

This this is right.

right? One ramps .

coming back. Could you magine your ark? Tosi grant bds, elon, with with ron paul helping out the the older wipe red statement coming in.

If they, if they import point the big way, that could be .

absolutely massive. Help, help. Beautiful with that. Y that man, the nicest man. American political history, you taught us to plenty of the seeds, likely in our minds, many of you listening to this humiliation, niels, your mothers ties, who, in your teenage years when the rain pal revolution was happening, two thousand and eight and two thousand twelve, telling us why the food was bad, why was the lower taxes cut the government, stop sending our dollars to far wars.

He's late in the late in the grass, for for, for a little over a decade now, continuing to do his work. A one polite too. Getting is getting his day.

Getting his opportunity come back next to effect change in the U. S. government. IT would be beautiful. Think i'm going to vote. We've got a lot of man listening to the spot cast, unlike the freedom tech, is definitely away. But there is also pass of resistance that lay us, one, I believe, with much more resistance, one with less resistance, more optimism, more help, more building. We're getting the government out of your life first song say I think you get .

out of just when the men got about.

I think the men um are are not burning as much .

these days are are listen.

the seven women listeners you go vote to, but I think this platform you can go look at the the demographic breakdowns that exists on the back end of the podcasting in youtube. It's ninety seven percent men. So I still .

think we have thousands of female listers.

Shout to our lady freak.

There's a lot of freaks in argentina. I've met a bunch that's always .

is a global is a .

global a global .

podcast.

I think that's the crazy thing about the animal. S is like a hundred and sixty plus countries that's preluding sane.

I was said, every country we need to get a, when you get distribution in and before more countries will .

have global coverage.

this apps and APP stream are coming out fuck and crazy right now.

And I know my laptop today, and I bring my laptop.

and four, twenty one thousand sad apps will Spark bitcoin alchemist map twenty one. One is a on test dummy, just zp ten thousand sets or nasty stream as R H R 到 TV side stream freak。

What else? Big week.

I mean bitcoin, we we approached all time hires, we then hit IT, but back below seventy thousand, below seventy thousand, sixty nine thousand seven dollars. What do what do you think they think big coins pricing in the election right now are waiting for the election. Would your thoughts post election results for bacon?

I mean, I think both both bitcoin and broader markets have basically been unlike this rotation trade over the last four weeks or so, expecting a trump in and and pumping based on that.

But I mean, I don't .

think markets are perfectly efficient. So I think I think there's a lot of there's a lot of capital just sitting on the sidelines waiting to deploy into the coin until after the election.

yeah. But IT does .

seem like that's a key driver of the recent run. Also I mean socially speaking, like big or in cycle speaking, where right in the suite spot where a lot of the upward movement tends to happen on the four year having cycle. But the E T, usually this is around the time when we start reaching the past all time high.

Uh, that kind of got front run because of the effect of the etf, I think. And then we kind of a stage staging and now we kind of getting back into the classic cycle to a degree we've talked about in the past that you bit on now is more of a macro asset that has ever been ah so so there there are some new on there. But um I don't think the cycles are dead completely.

I don't know, I don't know. This is this chap. Solidity for less seven, eight months, very strong, very strong base to build off of moving forward as we head towards one point eight million dollars between now and this time next year.

Yeah, I mean.

that's all.

I'm incredible bullish.

So, news items this week， I think one of the big ones that caught my eye, particular because we've been saying for many years that states are going to lead the way in some regards in terms of bitcoin adoption. He had the C F O of the state of florida, my petros come out write a letter to the state advice reboard saying I want you so very similar to the microsoft but it's not a vote as a Mandate ah.

He wants the state pension system to um seriously consider putting bitcoin on the state's treasury so that's the bullish signal. One of largest economies in the country in florida believe in this letters. He said if fladda was a standalone country, IT would be the sixteen largest economy in the world um so floridas got the Mandate to to look into bitcoin encrypt, for what it's worth, that was the cypher word was in there. Another interesting thing, he was on C, N, B, C. We return this on a thursday morning, and he said that the state pension system, he has six hundred million dollars allocated to cry pta related investments.

Oh, wow. yeah. I mean, what is kept a related investments? I imagine pensions .

investing funds or something like that.

So the people visiting on the park, guests mari dead air clothes with clipped related investments. yeah. Hopefully not like. Yeah, I don't know.

There's a lot of you out there. Yeah.

holly, a big one. Yeah, i'm bom.

We couldn't do this on thursday, but luckily, I mean, you're gone. I was incredibly exhausted that a red I flight, I was not possible, red I flight, but he turned into .

one yeah either I fly .

to and but .

mine was like, ten hours .

started the there is a october thirty first sixteen anniversary of the the White paper being released. And I think IT is crazy to think what's happened in sixteen years. Bitcoin en is the six largest based money in the world um will be the fifth largest if we get above above eighty six K I believe gone from the zero zero dollar market capture one point four two trillion around there right now in sixteen years.

It's gone from this fringe cyberpunk experiment that got laughed bad and called still is to this day, but not as much anymore. Response scheme, the spec of investment and asset for drug dealers, in speculators and in in criminals. In sixteen short years, we've gone from zero dollars to around seventy thousand dollars, one point four two trillion dollar market cap, six largest based money in the world and gone from a net on the ash of the of the global economy to be forced to be reckon with.

Um you have states seriously considering in putting in on their pension to have countries um seriously thinking about putting IT on their treasury. IT is a political topic here in the united states heading into the most important election of our lifetimes. And it's just crazy to think sixteen years is not a long time, half my life, little little under half my life, but crazy to think that between is bin around four or half of our lives. Now this point.

Yeah, IT feels like a big, big queen birthday. I felt like a very strong ten, thirty one day. I mean, for me too, that was the day we met with the ambassador.

I would say, by the way, just one more piece on that glad things of fucking pro. I I felt like, I mean, I think he's over than me, but I felt a proud father just standing there when he was doing as a bitcoin pitch. Just very strong. But yeah, bacon comes such a long way. 哎呀， it's it's been in honour, in a privilege to a watch IT grow.

really. I think it's been fast. I can vividly remember what I was doing on october thirty first two thousand eight. In the wave paper launch is running through broad street celebrating .

the filer's .

world series win. And IT doesn't seem like that long year senior in high school, obviously started a career, started a family. A lot happens since then, but they warn you, especially before you have kids, it's like IT goes by fast.

It's the same with big when IT goes by fast. If you played forward in other sixteen years, I think of where we can be, it's is going to be very weird in a good way. I think want to be surprised the upside in terms of how much success spec coin has.

And IT does feel like this like, no, you're down in argentina. I I imagine you're feeling this too. And you did mention IT earlier, but now feels like, particularly with this election coming up, that people are extremely cautiously optimistic. The trumps IT.

particularly for bickle in IT.

feels like things in yet pretty wild, pretty fast.

yeah. I I mean, I think so too in a big way.

Yeah.

I am .

I I .

would say, I would say. I'm trying to choose my words very carefully here. If trump wins, I mean, this is going to be the first this this will be the first administration where like big corners, have some big winners, have a front row seat in a lot of the policy making decisions.

That's very great.

Good govea for exit off for us, make IT too big to c that's i've I i've been a constant libertate arian and co capitalists like don't vote, it's not worth IT and I know you got me with the with the clip the other week. I would say that's not fair. I've never believed that the elections are important until this one because that does feel like you you get common as m where you get some sense, hope of of fixing things.

I'm I think i'm i'm gratefully skeptical a lot of the promises, but we shall see our place that we .

shall we shall microsys big ways this week. Coming out saying they're to delete shareholders by forty two billion dollars of the next three years.

Yeah holy ship, Michael.

Forty two billion over three years to buy big wine.

I mean, do you doesn't stop? Well.

I always .

like the number forty two.

Twenty one times still it's a great number.

It's crazy like I mean, because there were public company, he just like telegraphs IT to the world is like i'm doing .

nothing and they're stocked in that bug me and said i'm going to love the shit out of you in the next three years. I mean, related to other stocks, IT was relative strength.

The whole market kind of down, right?

yeah. Yeah, we had a terrible jobs report yesterday, not for you. You got that. But pay roles came in at twelve thousand.

They were expected to be a hundred thousand and they would have been negative sixty three thousand. I believe IT wasn't for government jobs being added to the economy last month. I think there was like net net eighty thousand new jobs, all government. If the government was on herring people, we would have head and negative jobs report. And .

that's the other thing.

I mean, regardless of who gets in, they're adopting a pretty terrible economic situation that seems pretty clear that um economy sputtering right now jobs report, which is historically manipulated. Not only that, they say there's only two thousand thousand new jobs. They were added last month. They revised August, september down pretty significantly as well. Not sure if you guys are paying attention to the plummet of the federal reserve system, but the reverse repeal is being drained pretty aggressively right now, approaching zero spreads to blow out in the overnight markets, which is not a good sign. And then um the blow out of the long end of the field curve, thirty year, ten year treasury ies is accelerating and doesn't seem like anything that the fed or the bite administration does to post your economically is stopping people from dumping their their long, long term bonds.

And the chapter or three of the Manda les chapter three, the book is just getting started. Man was a big standard, I like I don't you can be an absolute want. And the situation right now is, I mean, what the interest payments on the debt is larger than defend spending right now and defense ending is way too high.

Yeah but IT .

gets hard to .

I mean.

short of just printing a shit on the money and buying bitcoin directly with IT and then holding the big coin, IT is hard. It's hard to see a path out of IT.

Yeah, RAM pw, we need you.

We need rapp to come in.

Congratulations on launching bitcoin afa with the john and grant. And so you guys released the first episode.

released the first episode dicon alpha, and has been long, long time coming. We have to rip the band date off. I'm excited. Um more people need to get the insights of grant element and john Arnold going be fun show. We're going to keep a quick and we said never gonna IT by weekly.

I just saw the group chat for bitcoin alpha and they already want to rip next week so next episodes come out next step says first come out in thirteen days but there maybe one of six days keep you freak of bressed to that yeah we're just going to get together um every other week as of right now, maybe every week and talk about the state of seeing on the institutional side in the venture side with a bitcoin because obviously we see that attent thirty one people need to hear some more particularly people outside the bitcoin bubble. Not the hope is that will have some institutional investors who are bit curious listening in and hearing the pitch, uh, getting a Better understanding of what's going on within the big win industry because I mean, if you look out a broader venture, it's pretty big bloodbath right now. Many funds who raised in twenty, twenty, twenty, twenty one invested or that deserve coveted money in A B to b set.

And vanilla tech ventures are struggling. And I truly believe having just looking out of the world right now, they are like bitcoin. In terms of if you look at work with the sector from the B, C perspective, the between industry is like one of one of the few outside of a eye that actually has any legs under IT ability to drive returns for investors.

So if you want to listen to big one alpha, uh, it's on it's on Martin project, the t ftc part just feed and also are our youtube. So T F T C on youtube .

yeah you take IT out.

I see average gary, average gary, asking when the next tile dispatches. um. I, I been pretty swamped here, but I think we might have one in a few days.

I keep guys updated on master. Problem here with me, and i'd like to do a recent person with problem. So hopefully we can make that happen.

I was starting to him battle last night. See you open to, oh, yes. I mean, we just need to make the time and make that happen.

Yeah, we're like.

we just run. And all over the place of here, I mean, even this, like, look at this rapper, right? How to make that happen yeah, is very much works.

I spent a marital capital on this trip when to to pay back today. Missing a socket practice.

Well, send my apologies to the firm. Well, there was most in my fault.

I'm trying to pull off the boost from last week and now sounds not working for me. Me, get off the wifi. He said. That helps, but I think you're going to like the first the top is were one of the top is from last week.

Top top is from wilmington soft by bitcoin rabbit rk three twenty eight first comes from northwest arkansas bitcoin sixty nine thousand four hundred seventy nine sats northwest argensola bitcoin is hosting naster one to one next saturday, november ninth at eleven A M, we will meet at start up junkies off the fate with the downed square, check out our nasty feed made up or acts to find additional details and reach out with questions. You us to learn about another freedom tool for your stack. Go hugs at original size, fifty thousand sets, sets.

Chapter one, grey water. Don't use clean water to wash your hands. Intended as a gentle reminder that the admonishment came out shrill form want to seem hickson would call a boomer pop.

But still, the rules of the household were simple est bank insistently flooded them. There were ways of establishing that you weren't under any somewhat older women's thumb without wasting water. He was such a critically handsome man that that shed, let them get away with almost anything else to be continued, if necessary.

Do you realize what this happening?

Yeah, I recover ze that from. Recall that being shaped one of medals.

I think, I think that freak is, are going to get you to read the whole book through boosts week. Every week.

every body is going to learn. Everything is going to learn .

about the ables. When I I saw that boost, got a kick out of I, I, I was not involved. All credit goes to who is a frequent centive .

original size.

Shout out original size. Thank you for your support. Add IT biti hottle .

twenty thousand sets with large public companies considering adding bickering to their treasury ies. Make sure to front, run them with your personal treasuries. Stay humble stacks apps. Great advice.

It's nice. I love IT eight, miss an deer, seven thousand seven hundred .

seventy seven cats, seven across, four pounder. On boost update, the H, R, F will be paying out the first bounty to stack. While IT looks like we had a, looks like we had some influence on on a party .

paid lead to see IT.

Good to see if you guys don't recall eight render boosted us last week.

I appreciate him up getting us IT. There's a rather die. Thank you.

IT is a still a little business on air talk. We've been very busy traveling the world meetings, car founders meetings with ambassadress .

conferences.

This is only the beginning of the world market. Things only get crazy for us. How do we?

How do we? How do we stay same? How do we stay healthy?

I mean, a first years of my strategy was just to say yes to everything, and now got to be very much more deliberate time. Time is the moscow asset. The only thing more scarce .

than biton really feel IT. That was the busiest week my year so far. I thing.

Yes.

it's been a world wind.

You know you know it's you know, action people just got be the change one to seen the world .

IT is on us is crazy again, reflecting on sixteen years a bit on I think that's he said you were proud, proud of bakwin, proud of bitcoin. There is still, as I think, again, just reflecting in looking out what lays before us what is what has happened over the first sixteen years of the the initially in the individuals with micco's, just the bass pat on the back. This is a freedom technology.

They will only succeed if people get off their ask, roll up their sleeves and and get worked done. I mean, I think that is the most incredible thing of everything that happened and where bit one has gone to in sixteen short years as IT doesn't happen without individuals just using the agency to get up and get shit down. And it's been in the face of many headwinds of people making fun.

Of us telling us were stupid saying that big coin is worthless. Um beyond that stronger headwinds from a regulatory front, governments actively working against us, companies working against us. Despite all that, we sent in a pretty strong position today.

So shout out everybody pushing forward and the work is not done yet. A lot of work to be done, lot of tools, companies, products that need to be built. This is just the beginning.

Yeah I mean, it's it's really easy to fall into the trap of thinking a big win, another freedom tech as merely sl often are projects, but ultimately it's a movement of individuals who take action and I stand up and and get IT done. So shout to tell you 啊呀。

Try and think mining. Mining is pretty hot right now. We're preaching is a to hash I believe long import mental that space in a mining I believe we temporarily hate like eight hundred and twenty X A hash earlier this week can be interested to see for store around there. Let's go the mining tab up up. Seven hundred fifty said in its a hash right now.

that charge is designed to pump forever. Oh yeah, huge shadow to future bit. Um there was a solar minor that was using a future bit that was that that fundable .

very bullish .

and like everything .

like that's not using you know C K pool, which is like a quote on quote solar mining pool that builds a back template that the future bit has everything self hosted. So like there was a proper solar mind block really fucked and go I mean .

that's that's one thing that everybody is afraid of. Vital mining, poor centralization, everything going on with P, P, S, and they worry. But I think I mean, whether it's future bit or what we've seen with bid acts in C K solar pool this year, I think that's one of the bullish, more bullish trends that, that is definitely picking up. We're seeing um ocean mine more blocks for seeing people bid access and future bits. Mine blocks like the common unification of basis, is enabling individuals to .

contribute to to .

block construction and adding blocks. The transaction to the networking, getting rewarded for IT.

which has ocean sometime I believe ocean hash rate right now a long time time it's trend ending up. It's great to sea. Um I would say specifically like I I really I like this the right proper solar mining, right? So don from ocean enables you to do this. Also a future bit has their own mechanism to do this. We run your own node and you construct your own blocks. It's it's it's empowering ing to see and just this concept of basically low power manners um that are that are a lot of y mining, right they may never find a block, but if they do, they get to construct IT and chose reconstruction they want to include um and at the fringes that makes that can make a big difference, right? If there is a transaction that is getting censored at the protocol level, if IT gets .

confirmed in .

twenty blocks because there is A A solar mind block by some random on um that puts pressure on all the mining polls. Fortunately, we haven't seen any broad based protocol center ship yet. Um and maybe this just preempted, but this is this is a trend that we've been watching for a long time, which is this idea of the commodification of asx, the increasingly larger life cycles are that um before they get absolute should naturally distribute um how many people have sex and and how many people are constructing blocks yeah i'm .

very bullish on is a commodification enabling individuals to contribute. It's all coming together freak. What else happened this week? Trying to pull things from top my mind.

Just happened.

And we can this happen.

I've been .

pretty out a bit.

Everybody y's talking about polymer. Polymer came out nowhere. Hot trick on the block this election cycle.

Who's who's the leading investor party market?

I think fanner son, he succeeded a few others. He's found a Polly market with title earlier two balls this week.

Founders fun is still own.

Yeah.

I live the the funniest part about polar market.

I mean, first of all.

they're strict to use IT like I mean, we've talked about this in the past, like we need big and like more usage of bitcoin prediction markets. Um but I think the the funny is part is like the clam that foreign money is influencing the election through Polly market and policy market is not legally allowed to serve americans. It's like paly market would love would love if americans could participate in the election prediction market, but there we're not legally allowed to.

But I think I think there's an important as someone who has paid attention to prediction markets for a while there, there's an important and important distinction to think about in terms of polls versus prediction market, right? So first, all there's, I think, a lot of credibility to say that polls are grossly inaccurate and are very small symposiums and aren't very good at predicting outcomes. But they continued to try if a pole is at fifty five percent to forty five percent, right, in trying to measure actual voting results, right? In terms of elections, right? Prediction markets can be used for all sorts of things like predicting the weather, you know, global disasters, anything.

But in terms of elections, right? You have polls. You have, let's say it's fifty five, forty five percent and for a poll, that poll is saying that the results of the election will be fifty five to forty five percent.

But on a prediction market IT should oh in that situation, if if if the market believes that the fifty five percent person is very likely to win, IT should be way higher, right? IT should be um like as you get closer to the election and as IT gets cal Price in IT IT IT at the way IT ends is IT ends in a hundred hundred percent on one side. So you you have to .

look at IT .

in a different way. And I think that's a loss of a lot of people like a lot of people are looking at prediction markets in terms of of the perspective that they .

had previously with polls .

yeah like on the .

even of the election. If there's a very good confidence that one canada is gonna win fifty five percent, that prediction market should be like ninety percent to that candidate.

Yeah, this will be this would be pretty big for prediction markets like if they are pricing and in pretty significantly in the lead up to election like monday night ever and gets the other way, it's like, what will you do?

These things is also important to realize that once americans aren't legally allowed to air, legally allowed to participate.

thank you. Just been coachy yeah but it's .

it's small, right? The second part is uh, there's a lot of friction to use IT, right? Because it's it's not even I mean, they're be friction. If IT was eat, it's not even you have to like get another chick in the top of eat. It's not like an easy thing to access.

And the result to both of those things mean that is not very liquid, right? So like the prediction market dream is, you know for a large events, you know you have billions of dollars of liquidity, and we're not even close to that. So whales can relatively there's a lot of slippage, right? It's you know it's it's a trading game, right? There's a lot of slippage.

If you have a large amount that you are trying to either you know hedge or or or make a bet on this outcome. This is something like so this is why in other ways, bitcoin is almost a incredibly liquid global prediction market on macro outcomes. And and you start to see like different aspects .

of global trans .

get Priced into bitcoin based .

on market sentiment.

And in those situations, IT takes a lot more money to move the Price of one direction or the other in the short term and for using .

the current bitcoin Prices boner for which direction the election will go IT seems like it's a fifty fifty toss up at this point were like bubbling rabel all time high sing the market doesn't seem confident ough to push you over, which would signal to me that someone of a toss up right now. What happens next week?

yeah. I mean, I think I would say that is. I mean, I think it's the market is is mostly expecting A A trm resent .

cy um .

that what .

you're expecting? Yeah like i'm i'm pretty, pretty confident that that that trump will be in the light house in january.

That would be sick. That would be sick. I mean.

it's great like it's going to come down to like thirty thousand voters in swing states.

Hey, gentlemen, in the few few ladies listening to this going out, but particularly you care about the future bitcoin.

I just I think .

it's important .

that i've never endorsed in my short time as a public figure. I've never endorsed a president candidate um and I I will not do that .

right now either i'll do IT go over for .

you because and i'm great i'm pretty excited that trump will likely win and then over the next four years as a different disappointments role and I plan to bring up martie's endorsement. And he's going to like he's going to have other different excuses. No, he got handed a bad bag. This that this different, hopefully all will be free bitcoin Price .

will be that will .

be sorry and will be like chapter seven amended ables and will just keep pushing forward.

Yeah, hedging the battle little a bit. The enorme again, i'm back. I mean, whoever gets in drum gets in is in candid a steaming pile dog shit.

The excuses are really starting.

The economy said.

I mean, like biting can go self. But he was also handed the steaming pile dog shit.

IT is born big steaming piles. Dogship was looking at to be, the fire is getting stronger. No IT the man is that .

is being .

overlooked in the election. You if anybody paying attention again to ban the bond, yld her or the liquidity in the back and plumbing of the banking system where the jobs markets not looking good anyway, you turn and if got everyone's got a new little thread here moving forward terms the economic stuff. There's going to be, it's funny.

There's going to a thirty year in ten year auction, thirty year auction on tuesday, ten auction on wednesday. And obviously this is going to be very chaotic. C, with the election happening tuesday, results rolling in wednesday. But I would pay attention to those actions as well and see what see how they go, particularly if we get some clarity tuesday night, that auction on wednesday, seeing what the demand for that looks like could could be very telling terms of trump wins in the the auction demand is still low. It's not a good sign.

Yeah, I mean, I don't know. Like I mean, I just stand bone stacked outside. What who would buy that?

Stable coin issues that need liquid reserves. Actually, they're by shorter term, shorter term bonds about .

I think it's you know, we've started to witness this mask off moment and people are starting to realize that is just a bad deal. It's it's a bad deal to effectively lend money to the U. S.

Government and not create imaging IT. So cyclically feeding your degenerate Campbell, a friend who just goes out, takes crazy seven game parleys in the this is every single one of them.

yeah.

Then they like pretend like like amazing credit rating.

Yeah one time in the nineties where we had a budget surplus going to bring that back to worry.

Ah i'm just grateful that we have that people have the ability to topped out of the yeah.

you should take a view of that the ability to topped out .

your own hands yeah .

you have a stack that protect your self, protect your family, protect your local community, your city.

your state. Start with .

within a workout ward in bitcoin held in south custody, secure properly is the safest bet in the world. Feel very confident saying that.

Hundred percent stamper access piece of up.