cover of episode Ep 100: Why AI Is Underhyped with Elad Gil

Ep 100: Why AI Is Underhyped with Elad Gil

2024/11/2
logo of podcast Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist

Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist
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Elad Gil认为大型语言模型（LLM）能力的提升是逐步的，如同攀登阶梯，每个步骤都会解锁新的应用领域，最终可能实现涵盖所有人类服务的能力。他以自己投资的Harvey公司为例，说明了LLM技术在法律领域的应用，并预测未来LLM将能够处理所有人类服务。他还谈到了人工智能技术在各个领域的应用，以及对未来社会的影响。他认为，目前人工智能的实际收入和影响被严重低估了，即使在应用率不高的情况下，也产生了巨大的收入流。他认为人工智能革命的核心在于“认知单元”的变革，即人们将为能够思考和执行任务的工具付费，这将改变各种服务行业。他认为大型语言模型（LLM）的能力是否会指数级增长，最终彻底改变并改进各个行业，还是会达到某种极限，目前尚不明确。他对专注于特定垂直领域的AI工作流程工具最为看好，因为模型的升级只会提升这些工具的效率。他认为人工智能将在教育领域产生巨大影响，未来每个孩子都将拥有个性化导师，从而实现更有效率的学习。他认为，在社会发展时期，建造大型的、鼓舞人心的纪念碑对于激励人们取得成就至关重要。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Elad Gil discusses his early career experiences, including working at a failing telecom startup during the dot-com bust and joining Google during its period of rapid growth and talent acquisition. He highlights the formative lessons learned from navigating a challenging economic environment and the unique entrepreneurial opportunities within Google.
  • Elad Gil's early experience with a failing startup taught him valuable financial awareness.
  • Google's rapid growth and lack of middle management created a 'grey market' for talent, allowing entrepreneurial individuals to thrive.
  • Elad helped build the initial mobile team and worked on early AI/ML for ad targeting at Google.

Shownotes Transcript

For Episode 100, we have a special conversation with Elad Gil, one of Silicon Valley's great thinkers, builders, and investors. Elad has been involved with many of the leading technology companies of the past 20 years — and likely the next 20 years. Learn how he's backed dozens of unicorns, why he thinks AI is underhyped, and where he sees investment opportunities amid this new wave of disruption. 

An early leader at Google, Elad helped build the initial mobile team, before founding MixerLabs, which was acquired by Twitter in 2009. Elad stayed on as VP of Corporate Strategy and became a key "fixer" during Twitter's hypergrowth phase. Later, he co-founded Color Health, a genetic testing company specializing in cancer detection. Over the past decade, he's backed nearly 40 unicorns, including Airbnb, Coinbase, Figma, Instacart, and Stripe. He's also invested in Harvey, Mistral, Perplexity, Pika, and other leading AI startups. 

In this episode, Elad takes us behind the scenes of the early days of Google and Twitter, and how Silicon Valley culture has evolved. He explains his three categories of exceptional founders and how he positioned himself to become one of the top angel investors. We also dive deep into AI, from the trajectory of LLMs to frameworks for investing in the AI value stack. Finally, we discuss AI's impact on education and the most exciting possibilities for the decade ahead. 

00:00 Episode intro

01:16 Building Google’s mobile team

06:01 Early days at Twitter

11:37 Building Color Health

15:57 How he’s backed dozens of unicorns

21:52 How small clusters of talent change the world

25:20 Where are the young people in government?

27:25 Where are the young startup founders?

30:17 Why AI is underhyped

36:40 Will LLMs get exponentially better?

39:10 Investing in the AI value stack

41:33 AI and the future of education This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com)