cover of episode Ep 112: Peter Thiel on DOGE, Tariffs, Building Generational Companies & the Future of Civilization

Ep 112: Peter Thiel on DOGE, Tariffs, Building Generational Companies & the Future of Civilization

2025/4/17
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Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist
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Peter Thiel: 我对伊隆·马斯克的‘无聊公司’非常看好，因为修建隧道可以创造数万亿美元的价值。这个领域之所以存在机会，是因为它非常混乱，以至于没有人尝试去做。这并非技术问题，而是因为存在腐败和工会等非技术性障碍。例如，曼哈顿的地铁建设成本是巴黎的十倍甚至一百倍，这反映出严重的效率低下。如果能够克服这些障碍，就能创造巨大的价值。 Joel Onosdale: Peter Thiel的观点是，很多领域之所以存在机会，是因为它们很混乱，并不需要技术上的突破，而是需要解决一些非技术性的问题，例如腐败和工会问题。 Joel Onosdale: Peter Thiel认为，SpaceX和Palantir的成功案例证明，即使面对人为障碍，也能通过坚持不懈的努力取得成功，并对社会产生积极影响。他认为，我们也应该尝试在医疗、教育和大学等领域进行类似的改革，但要保持适度的乐观，并选择合适的目标。

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This chapter explores the challenges faced by talented individuals in navigating today's broken systems and offers insights into how to find opportunities in these areas. It emphasizes the importance of focusing on areas that are broken due to non-technological reasons, where solutions are obvious but not implemented due to systemic barriers.
  • Focus on areas broken due to non-technological reasons.
  • Tech offers more opportunities than other sectors.
  • Elite institutions are broken and don't provide clear direction.
  • The tech industry is a vector of progress.

Shownotes Transcript

From co-founding PayPal and Palantir to writing the first check into Facebook and investing early in SpaceX, AirBnB, and numerous other unicorns, Peter Thiel has shaped the American technology world for over 25 years. Dozens of our most talented leaders have been inspired by Peter, and as a major influence on how we understand the world, he’s also helped to shape the future of the West. Peter likes exploring clever ideas and wisdom, and loves to win.

What's next for our civilization? How should talented people decide what to focus on? And where are the best opportunities amid our myriad challenges? There's no one better than Peter at understanding broken systems, recognizing civilizational currents, and charting a contrarian course. We begin with his mental framework for building in dysfunctional areas, and why Palantir proved more difficult than we ever thought. Peter reveals his worst investments of the past few decades and why broken sectors are often impervious to change. He explains the talent, philosophy, and timing necessary to build a truly generational company.

We also cover DOGE, President Trump's trade policy, and why Peter is more optimistic about the new administration in Washington than at any point since President Reagan. We discuss whether the vibe shift in Silicon Valley is real, and Peter's theory for how Meta (where he served on the board for 17 years) was captured by the woke mind virus. Lastly, he explains the precursors for cultural revolutions, i.e., the woke backlash, and why he's uncharacteristically bullish on the DOGE movement and new opportunities for lasting political change.

00:00 Episode intro

01:40 UATX vs Harvard

04:45 What should talent people focus on?

07:40 Peter's thesis behind Palantir

11:05 Why Palantir sued the Army

14:30 Optimism vs pessimism

17:10 Peter's worst investment areas

20:30 Peter's perspective on Trump & DOGE

25:45 Trump's trade policy & how to deal with China

30:40 New opportunities in broken areas?

35:10 Los Angeles, Austin, and broken cities

40:25 Is the Silicon Valley vibe shift real?

45:45 Cultural revolutions and why speech codes backfired This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com)