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cover of episode How To Monetize Government Policy | Mark Spindel

How To Monetize Government Policy | Mark Spindel

2025/5/5
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Hidden Forces

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Demetri Kofinas
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Mark Spindell
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Mark Spindell: 我在资产管理领域拥有35年的经验,主要为机构、保险公司、主权财富基金和央行管理资产。我曾在所罗门兄弟公司、荷兰银行和世界银行工作,积累了丰富的经验。我与Sarah Binder教授合著了《独立的神话》一书,探讨了美联储的独立性问题。我还曾担任哥伦比亚特区退休委员会的首席投资官和大型家族办公室的首席投资官。目前,我专注于产品开发,并与同事一起开发了ETF产品,让散户投资者能够以低成本的方式表达各种观点。 我对政府政策对市场的影响有深入的了解,并致力于利用这些影响来提高投资组合的价值和业绩。在与Demetri Kofinas的讨论中,我分享了我对特朗普政府经济政策的看法,以及这些政策对市场的影响,包括关税导致的供应链中断、物价上涨、借贷成本上升、资产价格下跌以及美元贬值等。我还讨论了更准确地理解政府政策及其对市场影响的投资意义,包括政府在经济中的作用、美联储独立性的神话、政策如何影响股票和债券的表现、另类安全资产的作用以及新的税收制度对投资结果的影响。 Demetri Kofinas: 本期节目邀请了Mark Spindell,他是Potomac River Capital的联合创始人兼首席投资官,该公司专注于理解和货币化政府政策,特别是央行和财政部的政策。我们首先评估了特朗普上任头100天的表现,分析了他的政策目标以及他在将这些政策转化为其政府的实际经济和政治胜利方面的有效性(或无效性)。我们讨论了关税导致的供应链中断、物价上涨、利率上升、资产价格下跌以及美元贬值的可能性,这些都是由对美国作为自由贸易主要倡导者以及布雷顿森林体系后国际货币和贸易秩序的主要倡导者和担保人的角色的广泛拒绝所驱动的。在节目的后半部分,我们重点关注了更准确地理解政府政策及其对市场影响的投资意义,包括政府在经济中的作用、美联储独立性的神话、政策如何影响股票和债券的表现、另类安全资产的作用以及新的税收制度对投资结果的影响。

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Shownotes Transcript

In Episode 414) of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Mark Spindel about monetizing government policies and how an improved understanding of their effect on markets can enhance the value and performance of your portfolio. Demetri and Mark spend the episode's first hour evaluating Trump’s first 100 days in office, assessing his policy objectives and his effectiveness (or ineffectiveness) in turning those policies into tangible economic and political victories for his administration. They discuss:

Tariff-induced supply chain disruptions

Price inflation

Higher interest rates

Lower asset prices

A falling U.S. Dollar

In the second hour, Spindel and Kofinas focus on the investment implications that stem from a more accurate understanding of government policy and its effect on markets. Listeners will walk away with a deeper understanding of:

The government’s role in the economy

The myth of Fed independence

How policy impacts equity and bond performance

The role of alternative safe assets

The impact of new tax regimes on investment outcomes

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io). Join the conversation on Facebook), Instagram), and Twitter) at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas) Episode Recorded on 04/29/2025