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cover of episode Tehran to Taipei: the Risks of Strategic Overreach | Dmitri Alperovitch

Tehran to Taipei: the Risks of Strategic Overreach | Dmitri Alperovitch

2025/6/30
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Hidden Forces

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Demetri Kofinas
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Dmitri Alperovitch: 我认为以色列选择现在袭击伊朗核设施,主要基于以下几点考量。首先,伊朗的核计划正在稳步推进,他们已经拥有了足够制造多枚核弹的浓缩铀,并且可能重启了核武器的武器化研究。其次,由于以色列此前已经削弱了伊朗在黎巴嫩和加沙的代理人力量,并摧毁了其防空系统,伊朗的报复能力降至历史最低点。此外,以色列也评估认为特朗普政府会默许甚至支持他们的行动。当然,这次行动也面临着风险,例如伊朗的导弹袭击造成了人员伤亡和财产损失。但总的来说,以色列认为现在是采取行动的最佳时机,以尽可能地推迟伊朗获得核武器的能力,并削弱其在该地区的影响力。 Demetri Kofinas: 我理解以色列不希望伊朗拥有核武器,但伊朗已经成为一个“门槛核国家”近二十年,他们并没有采取下一步行动,将浓缩铀从60%提高到武器级别。通过大大削弱伊朗的代理人网络,并揭露伊朗是一只纸老虎,无法或不愿意捍卫其盟友对抗西方殖民主义,难道不应该认为,一个更温和的政府迟早会在伊朗出现吗?这个政府的公民出生在两伊战争之后,在推翻沙阿之后十多年,并且对伊斯兰共和国对其个人自由的限制以及管理一个本可以成为富裕发达经济体的方式感到沮丧。我觉得以色列已经为自己创造了一个真正的胜利局面,而不需要在未来十年或二十年里割草,并为了害怕在这些外国袭击面前崩溃而让一个不受欢迎的政权继续执政。这是不是一个天真的看法?

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In Episode 425) of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with geopolitical and intelligence analyst Dmitri Alperovitch about the new security dynamics and economic opportunities that arise from America’s and Israel’s attacks on Iran, the risks of strategic overreach, and whether U.S. actions do more to compel or deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In the first hour, Alperovitch scrutinizes Israel’s decision to initiate a series of targeted strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, including their decision to assassinate key nuclear scientists and senior members of the IRGC. We discuss America’s choice to participate in this campaign, Iran’s response, potential additional repercussions from these attacks, political conditions within the Islamic Republic, and whether this latest round of violence might precipitate the collapse of the Iranian government or incite a coup against its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. In the second hour, Alperovitch is asked whether he believes Trump's decision to involve the American military directly in Israel’s war with Iran was in America’s national interests or if it results in strategic overreach that will further undermine American security and the credibility of American global leadership. He and Kofinas discuss how this move is perceived by other regional players like Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, how it alters the security dynamics in the Middle East, and how it affects Dmitri’s assessment of the risks Washington faces in its broader Cold War with the People's Republic of China. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by:

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io). Join the conversation on Facebook), Instagram), and Twitter) at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas) Episode Recorded on 06/23/2025