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cover of episode The Economic Fallout from Trump’s China Tariffs | Shehzad Qazi

The Economic Fallout from Trump’s China Tariffs | Shehzad Qazi

2025/4/21
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Hidden Forces

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Demetri Kofinas
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Shehzad Qazi
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Demetri Kofinas: 我认为,目前美国政府对华政策缺乏清晰连贯的公开策略,内部可能也并非如此。 Shehzad Qazi: 美国政府的目标是重塑美国与全球的贸易关系,这其中也包括改变与中国的贸易关系,而非制定一个针对中国的全面计划。 Shehzad Qazi: 特朗普政府的关税对中国经济的最初影响是积极的,因为企业提前购买材料和增加库存,但这种积极影响已经消退,中国制造业将面临放缓。目前对华关税税率最高可达145%,但情况瞬息万变,未来税率可能不会维持在如此高位,但也不可能回到特朗普上任前的水平。汽车关税规则有所修改,根据美国汽车零部件的含量来调整关税,这使得关税计算变得复杂。中国消费者支出在疫情后一直低迷,原因包括疫情封锁、经济增长缓慢、房地产市场危机等,导致消费者非常谨慎。中国依靠国内消费来弥补失去美国市场的观点是错误的,因为中国国内消费不足以支撑其全部产量,政府也未采取有意义的措施刺激消费。中国政府多年来一直承诺刺激国内消费,但收效甚微,最新的行动计划能否成功还有待观察。人民币正在贬值,但中国不太可能采取单次大幅贬值策略,因为这会引发金融恐慌并损害其与其他国家的贸易关系。市场低估了地缘政治风险和贸易战风险,将特朗普视为“交易者”而非“关税人”,这导致市场在最近几周遭受巨大损失。中国的报复性关税影响有限,其反制工具也十分有限,因为中国是全球最大的出口国,但国内消费却很疲软。中国可以通过进一步升级贸易战来施压美国,例如限制关键物资供应,但这可能会导致局势进一步恶化。美国虽然在贸易战中占据优势,但这并不意味着中国无法对美国造成伤害,中国可以限制关键物资供应来施压美国。美中之间达成全面贸易协议的可能性很小,未来可能达成一系列针对具体问题的“小型协议”。未来可能会出现新的贸易联盟,但其形成需要时间,目前尚不清楚中国在其中扮演什么角色。美国政府未来可能会优先考虑某些关键供应链的本地化或友好国家化,而对其他产业(如服装)的关注度可能较低。拉丁美洲可能在美中贸易关系中扮演重要角色,但需要进一步了解拉丁美洲经济状况才能做出更准确的判断。美国若要认真开展产业政策,可能需要大幅增加资本支出,这将对预算赤字和收益率产生影响。

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Shownotes Transcript

In Episode 411) of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Shehzad Qazi of China Beige Book about the impact Trump’s China tariffs are having on the U.S. and Chinese economies and prospects for a grand bargain. Demetri and Shehzad discuss:

The material impact that the trade war has had thus far on both economies

The companies and sectors most likely to be impacted, as well as those best positioned to weather the storm

The respective performance of each country’s currency and stock market

Explanations for the punctuated sell-off in U.S. Treasuries

China’s action plan to revitalize domestic consumption

Demetri also asks Shehzad about Trump’s stated desire to “do a deal with China,” what such a deal would look like, how big it could be, and what concessions either side is prepared to make in order to get it done. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by:

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io). Join the conversation on Facebook), Instagram), and Twitter) at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas) Episode Recorded on 04/16/2025