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cover of episode The End of the German Economic Miracle | Wolfgang Münchau

The End of the German Economic Miracle | Wolfgang Münchau

2024/11/25
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Hidden Forces

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Demetri Kofinas
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Wolfgang Münchau
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Wolfgang Münchau认为,德国是全球化的最大受益者之一,它利用全球化实现了经济模式的国际化,并在全球化时期创造了巨大的经常账户盈余。然而,德国未能适应变化的世界,错失了工业资本主义、技术和地缘政治的机遇。在20世纪70年代,德国政府预见到信息革命,但到了80年代,这一方向被放弃,德国在数字技术领域落后。德国对互联网的迟钝反应与其缺乏参与互联网早期发展有关,这是一种文化现象。德国在互联网泡沫中的失败,强化了其坚持传统优势领域的观念。新重商主义的目标是通过经常账户盈余来为国内的就业和社会结构提供资金,但这种模式依赖于廉价的能源和稳定的地缘政治环境。2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚之后,德国继续维持与俄罗斯的能源合作关系,忽视了地缘政治风险。德国企业长期以来忽视了地缘政治风险,继续对华投资。中国在许多领域都对德国构成竞争,德国低估了中国工业的崛起。德国通过汇率和劳资关系制度来抑制工资增长,以保持成本竞争力。 Demetri Kofinas 梳理了德国经济发展历程中的关键节点,包括二战后的重建、20世纪70年代对信息革命的预见以及80年代的转向、90年代中国经济的崛起、集装箱运输的自由化以及马斯特里赫特条约的签署等。他指出,德国经济的成功与全球化密切相关,但也面临着技术变革、地缘政治风险以及国内政策等挑战。他认为,德国未能适应变化的世界,错失了工业资本主义、技术和地缘政治的机遇,这导致了德国经济的衰落。

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Chapters
Germany's post-WWII economic miracle was built upon two pillars: a corporatist industrial model and a spirit of self-made entrepreneurship. This fostered growth in sectors like mechanical engineering and retail, with notable examples like the pipeline industry, nuclear reactor production, and the rise of Aldi.
  • Germany's post-war success was driven by mechanical engineering and retail.
  • Aldi's innovative, low-price model disrupted the retail landscape.
  • Early entrepreneurs prioritized business growth over personal wealth.

Shownotes Transcript

In Episode 391) of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Wolfgang Münchau, the director and co-founder of Eurointelligence and the author of a phenomenal new book about post-WWII Germany, the rise and fall of the German economy, its industrial sector, and the end of what he dubs “The German Miracle.”

Wolfgang Münchau and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode laying the foundation to help listeners understand how Germany became the economic and financial juggernaut that we have known it to be throughout the 1990s and most of the 21st century. They discuss the two pillars of the German economy, the supercharging of its industrial growth model during the period of globalization and unipolarity, and the cultural, technological, and geopolitical sources of its economic decline.

In the second hour, Kofinas and Münchau zero in on the ten structural sources of weakness for the German economy, including the German capital model and banking system, a corporatism that misaligns incentives between the interests of politicians and those of the economy, the fiscal doomsday machine in the form of Germany’s debt brake, a radicalizing electorate, and a political mindset among German elite that treats geopolitical risk as an economic externality to be safely discounted or ignored entirely. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts) | YouTube) | Spotify) | Stitcher) | SoundCloud) | CastBox) | RSS Feed) Write us a review on Apple Podcasts) & Spotify) Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/) Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas) Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io) Join the conversation on Facebook), Instagram), and Twitter) at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas) Episode Recorded on 11/19/2024