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cover of episode Don't Fear Putin, Strike Him - January 6th 2024

Don't Fear Putin, Strike Him - January 6th 2024

2025/1/6
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Fighting For Ukraine

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我分析了叙利亚当前的局势,认为这不仅仅是阿萨德政权的垮台,更是对普京领导下的俄罗斯的重大军事和政治失败。西方政客们似乎并没有完全理解这场失败的深远意义,否则他们会从中吸取教训。 俄罗斯在叙利亚内战初期提供的援助微不足道,甚至连提供的食物援助都非常糟糕,这导致叙利亚民众对俄罗斯的援助非常不满。直到2014年对乌克兰开战后,普京才开始关注叙利亚,其目的在于与西方寻求共同点,支持阿萨德政权,并测试武器和军事策略,为日后对乌克兰的战争做准备。 多年来,俄罗斯将叙利亚描绘成其最亲密的盟友,并利用叙利亚进行大规模的宣传,将叙利亚描绘成东正教的诞生地,以此强调保护叙利亚免受伊斯兰极端主义的必要性。然而,俄罗斯在叙利亚的巨额投资并没有带来预期的胜利,反而导致俄罗斯在叙利亚的战略资产面临损失,包括其在塔尔图斯的军事基地。 面对叙利亚局势的恶化,普京并没有采取任何有效行动,只是依靠宣传机器来掩盖失败,将责任推卸给伊朗或叙利亚政府。这种做法与俄罗斯在乌克兰的行动如出一辙,都试图通过宣传来掩盖失败,并宣称取得了胜利。 叙利亚的局势表明,如果受到足够强烈的打击,普京将会放弃一切,放弃任何征服。因此,我们不应该害怕普京,而应该坚决打击他,让他彻底失败。

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It is January 6. What is happening in Syria right now is not just the collapse of the Assad regime, it is also a loud and resounding defeat for Putin's Russia. You can't even imagine how significant

this defeat is. Unfortunately, Western politicians don't fully grasp this either, otherwise they would draw the proper conclusions from this failure. Let's start with the fact that during the early years of the Syrian Civil War Moscow did not offer much help to Assad. Most of the assistance was limited to miserable food supplies sent as humanitarian aid to Syrians.

I remember seeing firsthand in 2012 how bags of gray cheapest Russian pasta delivered with great pomp to Latakia airport were discarded by the roadside.

When I asked locals why they treated the aid that way, they replied: "We won't reject help when it's offered, but we can't eat this stuff. Have you seen this pasta? Even our dogs won't touch that garbage." Putin turned his attention to Syria only after starting the war against Ukraine in 2014.

That's when Russia got involved in a foreign war. From the outset, Putin pursued several objectives in Syria: trying to find common ground with the West, which was already fighting ISIS there, supporting the kindred dictatorship of Assad, and testing weapons and military tactics for later use against Ukraine. For years, Syria became the top topic of Russian propaganda.

It was declared Russia's closest ally. TV broadcasts proclaimed Syria as the birthplace of Orthodox Christianity, emphasizing we need to protect it from Islamists. Instead of pasta, bullets, missiles and mercenaries were sent to Latakia and Damascus.

Here I need to pause and remind you that the only way this podcast is monetized is through your donations. It's tough without them. Please check the episode description for all the necessary details on how to support me. Thank you. Back to Syria. Russia's poured tens of billions of dollars into the conflict.

These funds were spent on weapons, infrastructure, propaganda, and even Russian language textbooks, which suddenly became mandatory in Syrian schools.

Enormous sums were spent on a war that was supposed to be Putin's triumph. He even visited Syria himself, boasting about how he had won and how everything would now be wonderful. In return for these billions, the Russians secured from Assad the continued operation of the Soviet-era naval base in Tartus.

This base became the primary supply hub for Russian allies and mercenaries in Libya, the Central African Republic and other countries of region. And now all of this has suddenly vanished.

Assad, Russia's best friend, is gone. A country so significant for Christianity has been surrendered. Russia is on the verge of losing its basis, and billions have been wasted for nothing. And what does Putin do?

Nothing. His propaganda machine simply blames Iran, claims that the Syrians did something wrong or insists that the Russian operation there ended long ago. There's been no nuclear escalation, no mass mobilization. Nothing. Their main ally has simply been abandoned.

And this is precisely how Russia will abandon the occupied parts of Ukraine. Propaganda will spin the narrative that it was actually a victory, not a defeat, that all objectives were achieved and everything is fine. What's happening in Syria demonstrates to the entire world that Putin will abandon everything and everyone, relinquish any conquests if he is hit

Hard enough. Don't fear Putin. Strike him. He must lose.