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cover of episode In-Focus: Everything to Know about the Israel-Hamas Hostage Deal

In-Focus: Everything to Know about the Israel-Hamas Hostage Deal

2025/1/16
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The Caroline Glick Show

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我将分析以人质换领土协议的细节、幕后原因以及该协议将把以色列和美国带向何方。协议的第一阶段,哈马斯应该释放33名人质(死活不限),预计其中约23人还活着。这33名人质包括女性人质和5名被俘的以色列国防军士兵。同时,以色列将释放约1000名囚犯,包括约100名被定罪的恐怖分子杀人犯,这是一个战略让步。以色列将撤出加沙所有居民区,并允许平民返回加沙北部。协议第一阶段为期六周,届时应释放33名人质;第二阶段谈判将在第一阶段第16天开始,可能导致永久停火和以色列完全撤军。拜登政府可能认为协议结束,以色列将允许哈马斯重建军事和政治力量,从而取得战略胜利。特朗普政府则表示,将与以色列和盟友合作,确保加沙不再成为恐怖主义者的安全港。对于以色列人来说,这项协议令人担忧,因为这可能会成为哈马斯的战略胜利。自10月7日以来,大多数以色列人认为这是一场关系到国家生存的战争。以色列人理解与哈马斯无法共存。释放的33名人质是由于以色列军队在加沙的英勇努力和牺牲换来的。如果在确保释放33名人质后,我们能继续实现战争的其他两个目标,那么这项协议就是成功的。以色列普遍预期,这是拜登5月31日提出的协议,哈马斯在5月份拒绝了该协议,因为他们坚持要求以色列承诺结束战争。以色列希望在哈马斯被击败后达成协议,但特朗普采取了不同的路径,接受了拜登的计划。卡塔尔是全球圣战的中心,它为哈马斯等恐怖组织提供支持。卡塔尔利用其巨额财富在西方购买影响力。近年来,卡塔尔主要关注特朗普圈内的共和党人。专家认为,威特科夫与卡塔尔的往来可能会使他处于尴尬境地。卡塔尔在特朗普第一任期内进行了大规模游说活动,以改善与美国的关系。特朗普的团队由商人(如威特科夫)和媒体人士(如皮特·黑格塞思)组成。特朗普团队与卡塔尔等国家的商业关系引发了人们对其决策动机的质疑。耶路撒冷担心威特科夫会达成一项更偏向哈马斯的协议。威特科夫与卡塔尔的商业关系令人担忧,因为它可能影响他的决策。特朗普认为加沙的人质类似于1981年在德黑兰被释放的人质。加沙的情况与1981年德黑兰的情况不同,因为哈马斯是一个试图消灭以色列的恐怖组织。1981年德黑兰的情况与2025年加沙的情况完全不同,因此结果也不同。哈马斯希望在战争中生存下来,如果以色列失败,哈马斯将成为全球圣战的中心。如果哈马斯在这场战争中获胜,这将对全球圣战构成威胁。埃及也参与了对哈马斯的资助,阿巴斯·卡马尔因与哈马斯合作而被解雇。埃及情报部门负责人阿巴斯·卡马尔在10月7日事件中与哈马斯合作。在战争前,至少有10条走私隧道将武器和人员从埃及运送到加沙。为了了解六周后会发生什么,我们需要关注伊朗和约旦河西岸的情况。伊朗即将成为拥有核武器的国家,我们需要关注伊朗在未来六周内的行动。我们需要关注以色列在约旦河西岸的军事行动,这将表明战争是否结束。如果美国在特朗普政府领导下恢复其在国际航运线路上的作用,这将表明战争尚未结束。对特朗普来说,这是一个巨大的考验,内塔尼亚胡的领导力也面临考验。内塔尼亚胡在过去15个月里证明了他的决心和领导力。内塔尼亚胡面临着意想不到的情况,但他已经明确表示,一切取决于第一阶段结束后会发生什么。拜登政府试图通过牺牲以色列来展现其在中东的力量,但这导致了其在该地区的影响力下降。特朗普与拜登的关键区别在于,特朗普会坚定地支持盟友。

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Okay, we have a deal. What's in the deal? What's behind the deal? Where's this deal supposed to take us and how are we supposed to look at the deal? I'll have all the details and analysis about the hostage deal coming up on In Focus. Okay, so here's the deal.

I'm going to focus on various aspects of the hostages for terrorists and territory deal. And I'm going to, first of all, I'm going to explain what the hostage deal is, what the various stages involve.

And then I'm going to do an analysis of the actors that are behind the deal. The Biden administration, Trump and his Middle East envoy, envoy Stephen Witkoff, Qatar, Hamas, Egypt, and finally Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. And I'm going to do it all kind of briefly, but as comprehensively as time allows in order for everybody to understand what it is that we're

having to deal with now that everybody's talking about this hostages deal going forward and beginning to be implemented on Sunday, the day before Trump takes office. So first of all, what's in the deal? And probably I should just preface this by saying this has been a very hard time

a week really for Israelis, for myself, um,

We've spent the past 15 months completely mobilized for war, and let's remember that this war has three goals. One is the total eradication of Hamas as both a military organization and a political regime in Gaza, the prevention of Hamas or any other terrorist organization ever posing a threat to Israel from Gaza in the future, and the release of all of the hostages. Okay? So we have been...

totally focused most of the past 15 months on achieving the first two goals and we're on the precipice of achieving them and boom suddenly the focus is changing it's shifting to the third goal which is the release of the hostages we recall that hamas not only sadistically murdered raped tortured mutilated

1,200 Israelis to death on October 7th, but they also kidnapped 256 Israelis into Gaza over the course of the past 15 months, both through the November 2023 hostage deal and then

various rescue operations, exposing, finding the bodies of hostages that were executed by Hamas, et cetera. The number of hostages still remaining in Gaza today stands at 99. Okay. So that's what happened on October 7th. What's happened since October 7th and

We've all been focused on this show primarily on the war, but the left in Israel and in the United States as well has been focused primarily on the third goal of releasing the hostages. And so now we're shifting suddenly to the question of the hostages. And under the deal that was...

Concluded in one way or another most of it was concluded in one way or another Over the weekend last weekend mainly by President Trump and his envoy Stephen Witkoff who?

who have embraced Biden's offer for a ceasefire for a partial hostage release that was published in May of last year. Israel agreed to this deal, and Hamas agreed more or less to the deal, although I have to say that despite the fact that both President Biden and incoming President Trump have said that the deal is a done deal, and Qatar's prime minister, I think, gave a press conference announcing that it was a done deal

Yesterday, Wednesday, Israel still hasn't approved it because Hamas is trying to put in extra conditions. Already now I'm taping at one o'clock in the afternoon on Thursday and it's still going on. And as a result, Prime Minister Netanyahu postponed the cabinet meeting indefinitely to discuss the deal and approve or disapprove it because the Hamas terrorists who are at the table are

and not dead, are putting on additional conditions, and they're trying to get more last-minute concessions out of Israel, which Israel is refusing to make. So this is not a done deal yet. All the same, we're going to look at the deal as it's been announced and what it requires. And the main thing that we have to remember is that—well, not the main thing, but one of the things is that in the first phase of the deal, which is—

largely the only relevant phase, and we'll discuss that shortly. Hamas is supposed to release 33 hostages dead and alive. We're operating under the assessment that about 23 of the 33 that will be released will be alive. Those include the female hostages, including the five IDF soldiers from the observers unit who were taken hostage.

On October 7th, the older men, the Bibas family, dead or alive, Kfir and Ariel Bibas and their mother Shiri and their father Yarden, who was separated from them on October 7th. Hamas claimed early on in the war that Shiri and the two little boys

were murdered. And Yarden was filmed receiving the news that his wife and two baby sons had been murdered early on in the war. But we don't know. We've never seen any proof. We've never seen the bodies. So that the Bibas family, at any rate, are supposed to come back. The older men are supposed to come back. Some of the wounded, which will or will not include IDF soldiers who have been injured by Hamas, either on October 7th or during captivity or both,

were supposed to be released, but we'll have to see. So that means that 66 hostages are going to be remaining behind in Gaza. So 33 Israelis, including the females and particularly the female IDF soldiers, the Bivas family, and older men and wounded are supposed to be released.

We'll see. Hamas is supposed to let them out in sprinkles, three a week more or less. And in exchange, Israel is supposed to do a number of things. One is we're supposed to let out about 1,000 terrorists that are being held in our prisons, including about 100 convicted terrorist murderers, including mass murderers.

This is a strategic concession, as we know, because previous releases of terrorists from our jails, including ones that weren't convicted of murder, have led to all of the terrorism that we've seen, including October 7th, which was engineered and commanded by Yechia Sinwar, who was released in the

1027 terrorists for one Israeli hostage, Corporal Gilad Shalit, who was held by Hamas for five years before he was released in 2011. And among the 1027 terrorists who were released that day was Yechia Sinwar. So October 7th basically was born during or as a result of the Shalit

deal and here we're seeing that we're going to have a similar outcome in sense of releasing terrorists from jail and it can if we're not careful and vigilant and we don't win this war by achieving the other two goals of the war which is the annihilation of Hamas as a military organization and as political regime in Gaza and preventing Gaza from ever receding this kind of terrorism in the future re-emerging

then we will have another October 7th, and that's just clear. So first of all, that's one strategic concession that Israel is making. Another is that Israel is removing its forces from all of the populated areas of Gaza, including most critically the Netsarim corridor that bifurcates Gaza from north to south. And another strategic concession is that Israel is going to

allow civilians to return to northern Gaza across the Nasseri and quarter and the people who are supposed to be doing the scanning to see if the people returning to northern Gaza are terrorists are themselves aligned with Hamas that is observers from Qatar and Egypt and

So this is a strategic concession. At the same time, Israel is not withdrawing from the Philadelphia corridor, which is the border zone between Gaza and Egypt. Israel will remain at the perimeter inside of Gaza from north to south to prevent any terrorists from getting anywhere near to Israel.

But we'll have to see what happens. Those are the strategic concessions, more or less, that Israel has made. And they're going to be made during the first six weeks, during the course of which we're supposed to see 33 hostages released. And then there's a question about phase two. So phase two, negotiations for phase two are supposed to begin, I think, on day 16 of the first phase. And...

And then they're supposed to lead to more or less a permanent ceasefire and Israel withdrawing from Gaza in total and rebuilding of Gaza, restoring all of the rubble, rebuilding it.

And here is a question. What happens in phase two? Is this we're going to be able to reinstate hostilities, go back to war, go back to fighting Hamas after we get the 33 out or no? So Joe Biden gave a press conference declaring that he had declared

gotten this great deal and thanks to him everything is fine. Also on Wednesday evening, Israel time, and he said this about phase two. During the next six weeks, Israel will negotiate the necessary arrangements to get phase two, which is a permanent end of the war. Let me say it again, a permanent end of the war. There are a number of details to negotiate to move from phase one to phase two, but

The plan says if negotiations take longer than six weeks, the ceasefire will continue as long as the negotiations continue.

So you see that what Biden just said there is basically Israel isn't going to be allowed to reinstate hostilities during phase two, that they're going to be negotiating. And if the negotiations are ongoing, then they're also not going to be able to reinstate hostilities. So basically he sees that Israel is locked in by this deal and will not be able to resume hostilities at the end of phase one.

Okay, Israel's position that's been made very clear by Prime Minister Netanyahu is that if Hamas

If Hamas breaches the terms of the agreement during phase one Israel will reinstate hostilities and if Hamas and Israel have if Hamas is acting in bad faith at the end of the first phase that Israel will reinstate hostilities and so a lot of what happens in the future and whether this deal is a strategic defeat for Israel or not is

is going to be contingent on how the Trump administration lands on the issue of reinstating hostilities. So in this vein, I want to take you to what incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said. So first thing is a quote that he gave in an interview on Dan Sinor's podcast that was

was released on Tuesday, so two days ago. And this is what he said on that podcast. He said, Hamas cannot have a role. ISIS doesn't have a role. Al-Qaeda doesn't have a role. It astounds me that people try to put them in some kind of category. They are hostage-taking, murderous rapists and torturers that should never exist.

have any role in governing. And then here on Wednesday, he gave the following interview on Fox News to Brett Baer. So you can go to that video right now. We've made it very clear to the Israelis, and I want the people of Israel to hear me on this. If they need to go back in, we're with them. If Hamas doesn't live up to the terms of this agreement, we are with them. Hamas is not going to continue as a military force

entity, and it certainly is not going to govern Gaza, Brett. So, I mean, I want people to hear that crystal clear. So what he's saying very clearly here is that the Biden administration may think, you know, may be siding with Hamas's interpretation of this deal, that

It's over. That the minute that Israel agrees to phase one, that phase two will be implemented in the sense that Israel will allow Hamas to rebuild its forces, military and political, in Gaza, and they will be in control, and they will achieve strategic victory, and Israel will have 33 hostages back, 66...

more or less remaining in Gaza, although we might get some back if we completely remove all of our forces from Gaza, but the Hamas will have won the war, that they will have survived in power, the regime, their military forces, etc. This will be the biggest victory for jihad since, I don't know, Saladin or whatever.

So that's where Biden is. That's what he basically said in his announcement on Wednesday. And Waltz gave the exact opposite statement. Incoming President-elect Donald Trump said on Truth Social, he said, with this deal in place, my national security team, through the efforts of Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will continue to work

closely with Israel and our allies to make sure Gaza never again becomes a terrorist safe haven. So that's not exactly what Mike Waltz said, but it's a good statement. So the people who will be in charge on Monday, that is President Trump and obviously his national security advisor, Mike Waltz,

have been fairly clear on where they stand, which is the opposite of where Biden stands. And obviously, you know, we can go back to what incoming Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in his testimony on Capitol Hill. So we can just play that for a second.

I support Israel's existential war in Gaza. I assume, like me and President Trump, you support that war as well, don't you? Senator, I do. I support Israel destroying and killing every last member of Hamas. And so Hegseth, of course, saying what? That all Hamas people should be killed. Incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio said words to that effect as well. So that's where the incoming national security team is.

But, you know, for Israelis, this is all very daunting. I mean, we lost 405 soldiers to date fighting in Gaza, 840 soldiers since October 7th. And it's very, very intimidating, very frightening to think that

that this deal for the 33 hostages dead and alive, leaving 66 behind, that this can be a strategic victory for Hamas. I mean, we have fought so hard, our sons. We've given so much. It's not just the 405. It's the 13,500 who have been wounded, who will pay the price of their heroism their entire lives, and so will their families, and they will bear the scars of this battle all their lives forever.

15 alone have been killed in the last week. So we're looking at the tremendous cost of this war and the very clear-headed understanding by the vast majority of Israelis since October 7th that this isn't just any war. This isn't another round of fighting with Hamas that'll end in a stalemate this way or that way. This is a war for our national survival. We saw what the end looked like on October 7th, and you can't unsee that.

We saw the depredation, the torture, the misery and immiseration of the hostages at the hands of these Hamas barbarians in the hostage videos that they forced them to produce.

And we understand, you know, that there's no coexistence with Hamas. There's no way that they can be allowed to remain in existence if Israel is to be safe over time. So there's a tremendous sense of apprehension. I know for myself, you know, there have been moments this week where I've literally had a hard time breathing when I'm thinking about this deal. And it's because this is a battle for our lives. This isn't some sort of

War, you know another one. No, this is a war for Israel's very existence and it's all on the line and so the idea that You know, this could end in strategic defeat is terrifying aside from everything else and so here I just want to say that I

I agree with an interview that one of the bereaved father's attorney, Yitzhak Bonsal, whose son Amit, who was an officer in the paratrooper reconnaissance unit, and he was killed in battle in Gaza early on in the war, I think in December. And since then, Mr. Bonsal, the father, has been a very...

leading member of the heroism forum that I've been really privileged to work with over the past 15 months, who's been pushing for victory to make sure that the deaths of their sons in combat aren't in vain. And he gave an interview this morning on channel 14, where he said that,

the sons who have died and those, the thousands and thousands who have fought, have dedicated themselves to the war goals amongst which are the release of the hostages. And had it not been for their valiant efforts on the battleground, we wouldn't be getting back to 33. So that...

The 33 coming home is a consequence of the valiance, of the courage, of the heroism of our forces on the ground in Gaza and of the sacrifice, including the sacrifice of the lives of the sons of Israel who have died in this battle.

And that, you know, obviously, again, the proof is in the pudding. If after securing this goal of bringing back 33 of the hostages and hopefully the rest of them in time, we go back to securing the other two goals of the war, of eradicating Hamas as a military and political organization in Gaza and preventing Gaza from ever posing a threat to Israel in the future, which is, of course, a long-term goal,

then this is what we have to do. We have to concentrate on number three, and that's what we're doing. So Yitzhak Bonsal said this, and if he's willing to say this as a bereaved father, I think I took a lot of heart from listening to him, and I think that it's important to notice that he's actually correct. So I think...

you know, that that's true. And so we need to do that. And now I just want to take the rest of this more or less broadcast and talk about the actors that have been involved in this negotiations. And first, I'm going to preface by saying that the expectation in Israel

The widespread expectation in Israel is that, yes, this is Biden's deal from May 31st. As he stated correctly, one of the few things that he stated accurately, but all the same that he stated accurately in his statement on Wednesday, this is the deal that he proposed and that Hamas rejected, Israel basically accepted, and Hamas rejected in May because they insisted that Israel from the outset commit to ending the war and that Israel not be...

uh, not have its forces deployed in control of the Philadelphia corridor. So Hamas, uh, was the reason that this deal didn't happen in May 31st. And you can look and say, okay, but a lot has happened since May 31st, like the destruction of Hisbala, for instance, and, you know, a lot more destruction of Hamas's forces in May in, in Gaza, and a lot more soldiers have been killed, obviously. And therefore, you know, um,

Is this the deal that we wanted? And the answer is no, Israel didn't want this deal. Israel wanted to come in still fighting and for Trump to end the limits on us, other restraints that the Biden administration imposed on Israel, including the provision of constant supplies to Hamas,

uh etc and we wanted to bring the war to a conclusion with hamas on its knees and the hostages all home but trump went on a totally different path which was very shocking to israelis myself included which involved embracing biden's plan for may just accepting it accepting this plan which didn't make any sense when it was done but we were in a position with the biden administration where it made sense to agree to it

and it was hamas that didn't because they saw that biden was supporting them and so they rejected it and so now instead of going and making a better deal trump simply used the power that he has in order to get israel to accept this terrible deal that we could do much better

in negotiations, say, in February, after having, you know, taken, having all the restraints on our operations withdrawn by the Trump administration and our arsenals replenished by the Trump administration, as he's pledged to do, because we've been under embargo from the Americans. So it was very surprising that the Trump administration would

would, you know, or the Trump team, particularly Special Envoy Witkoff, would take on this deal. So the first actor that I want to talk about in terms of what they were doing with this deal is Qatar. And first, I should just preface this by saying this is going to be a very, very brief discussion of Qatar. I'm going to have an in-depth conversation with

Yigal Karmon from memory that's going to go up next week and we're going to talk only about Qatar. So for the purposes of this broadcast, I just want to say a couple of things about Qatar first. Qatar is...

the epicenter of of the global Jihad I mean it's not just Al Jazeera which propagates Jihad uh resonates Jihad calls for Jihad in countries around the world that is owned by the Qatari regime and directed by the Qatari regime to advance the cause of world Jihad it's also uh that they are the

base of the taliban of hamas they were of isis al-qaeda they all have offices in qatar and they're all welcome in qatar qatar is the breeding grounds of terror through al jazeera and it was a home base for sunni terrorist organizations

And it has to be seen as such. But the reason why Qatar doesn't pay a price for the fact that it is the epicenter of global terrorism is because Qatar is arguably the most corrosive, corrupting force operating in the Western world today.

You know, I don't think that George Soros and all of his compatriots light a candle to Qatar in terms of their influence buying with their billions. I mean, their sovereign wealth fund, I think it has $800 billion. And this is money that just gets replenished every time that they open up their oil pumps. So it's like a casino. You know, casinos are basically printing presses for money because people keep coming back to gamble more and more. So too, you know, with...

with qatar and their oil i mean they have almost no population and almost unlimited supplies of oil and gas so they have an enormous amount of money that they slosh through western capitals buying influence oftentimes as we've seen pictures of european politicians who've been caught with

you know, millions of dollars in cash in their refrigerators or whatever. It's all Qatari money and it's all to buy influence. And sometimes they do it brashly, you know, crassly, and sometimes they do it in a more sophisticated way. But they've spent billions on influence operations in the West, particularly in the United States. And over the past several years, their main focus has been Republicans in Donald Trump's circle. And so one of those people is Stephen Witkoff, the Middle East envoy. After Witkoff's appointment was announced,

You had articles about him, profiles coming out in Jewish Insider and New York Times and other papers. And I just want to quote you, first of all, what the Jewish Insider wrote about

about Whit cough so but the headline for this first of all is that Whit cough owned a property in Central Park South called the Park Lane Hotel that had gone into a lot of difficulties because his partner in this which was a middle-aged Malaysian businessman was exposed as a fraudster and he fled the United States for China and everything was sort of falling apart and

So in came in August of 2024, the Qatari Sovereign Wealth Fund, which is of course like Al Jazeera owned by the Qatari regime and they bailed out Witkoff. They bought the property for $623 million.

and including all of his portion of the ownership in that property. So $623 million. So here's what I'm just going to pick up from the Jewish Insider profile. It says, in the summer of 2023, Witkoff had...

sold Manhattan's troubled Park Lane Hotel, which had also counted Abu Dhabi's investment firm as a stakeholder, to Qatar Investment Authority, the country's sovereign wealth fund for $623 million, adding to Qatar's push into New York real estate. The Arab states of the Persian Gulf region

Have been making a huge push into New York real estate and this is what they were saying but in addition to being a potential asset for Whitcough who reportedly views Middle East geopolitics as one giant real estate deal his past dealings with Qatar in particular could place the incoming envoy in an uncomfortable positions experts say as a Gulf state has faced bipartisan criticism in Congress for hosting Hamas leadership and

and it goes on the park lane sale came after qatar had engaged in an aggressive and widespread lobbying effort during trump's first term as the president-elect sided with saudi arabia and other states that had imposed a blockade on the gulf countries seeking to build goodwill with the u.s qatar launched a campaign to influence hundreds of people close to trump including whitcoff

who was among several American executives to meet with Qatari officials according to foreign lobbying disclosures that broadly describe a series of, quote, introductions to, quote, facilitate collaboration and discuss business opportunities, among other things.

Then it says here, "Ben Behr, the director of advocacy for the Middle East Forum, a conservative policy think tank, expressed concerns that Woodcuff had been targeted by Qatar, suggesting the hotel sale was part of what he called an ongoing charm offensive reaching within, quote, 'Trump's inner circle of billionaire policymakers, including Elon Musk and others.'"

then the new york times and its profile of what of whitcoff they explained how his malaysian partner had gone on the lamb run away to uh china after he was exposed as a fraud uh

The feds tried to lay their hands on the Parkland Hotel to get back some of what he's stolen in his fraud operations. First, the UAE swooped in and they invested $140 million into the property. And then it was ultimately the Qataris that saved the day buying Witkoff out with those $623 million.

So Trump, if you look at the team that he's assembled, it's basically made of two groups, right? You have the businessmen like Woodcoff and then you have

television personalities like Pete Hegseth. And the idea, I think, basically is you have the businessmen who are making the deals and you have the media personalities who are selling the deals. And that's basically how he seems to be staffing his administration in many respects.

The problem is that, you know, obviously, if you're talking about billionaires, well, they make business deals with lots of people. And, you know, and Qatar comes into the mix, UAE, other countries with a lot of money come into the mix. And that opens up a lot of questions about who, what is driving whom to make what kind of business.

uh decision um and this came into play obviously over the weekend because woodcuff was reported to have really just sort of laid down the lawn and sort of surprised netanyahu

Right. So I think the fear in Jerusalem was that Witkoff, you know, before he came to Jerusalem, he was planning on making an even more expansive deal along the lines that the Biden administration were wanting to do, use the May 31st deal offer as a basis for even more profoundly pro Hamas deal making. And so, you know, the what Netanyahu was able to accomplish was that he forced Witkoff to maintain faith with Biden's bad deal from May, which

But it was sort of stunning to everybody concerned that it was this idea that he should be trying to do anything like that to begin with, right? That why would you be using Biden's failed pro-Hamas policy as a sort of stepping off point for the Trump administration? This isn't what anybody in Israel had really expected. And so it flummoxed me when I heard the news. I was stunned.

Why would they do that? Why would he act like Brett McGurk's deputy when he was Trump's envoy? It didn't make any sense. And then when the story came out about it afterwards that I received on Sunday morning about his business relationship with Qatar, which is a state sponsor of Hamas,

and the Taliban and Al Qaeda and ISIS, etc., then things started to look very, very disturbing. And then that becomes a question: How much do these business ties that these billionaires have with countries, first and foremost with Qatar, how is that going to be influencing their calculations? And that's sort of a disturbing question to be asking about Trump's team because Trump, of course, has been an extraordinary friend to Israel.

and people like mike waltz and marco rubio my pete hegseth and so many others on the team who are in the positions but they're they're being confirmed like they're not involved as victor davis hansen said on my podcast earlier this week you know like so then what's what is happening it's very very disturbing on the one hand and on the other hand and we're just going to have to see

So, you know, that's Qatar. And then we move to Donald Trump. And, you know, Donald Trump, he has clearly everybody's been saying it, resonating it, that he thinks that, you know, the hostages in Gaza are like the hostages in Tehran that were released by the Iranians on the eve of Ronald Reagan's inauguration to the presidency in January of 1981. Right.

And he wanted a similar thing to happen. The problem is that while obviously the picture may be very similar, the conditions are very different. I mean, Hamas is not Mark Zuckerberg coming clean on censorship. You know, it's not the same kind of change, right? Because they're not the same type of people. You know, Mark Zuckerberg is a businessman. He's an American businessman.

You know, there's no similarity whatsoever between him and genocidal jihadists who are holding 99 hostages. And it's true, you know, I think seven of them are American citizens, but they're Jews and they're being held because they're Jewish, because they're Israeli. And we have to realize that. And they're being held by a terrorist group, I mean, that is waging a war to annihilate Israel.

And that's a very different situation than the situation in Tehran in 1981, or 1980. It's true that Ayatollah Khomeini declared war on the United States, but the Iranians didn't invade America.

and america didn't let out any you know a thousand terrorists to its own soil or to china or to i mean canada and mexico in order to get the release of the american hostages being held in tehran america didn't give territory to the control of ayatollah khomeini in the in in in 1981 and again most importantly the united states did not make any strategic concessions to

an entity that was waging a war to annihilate the United States in 1981. So the conditions that obtained in 1981 are totally different from the ones that obtained in 2025. And if you're trying to make a comparison or to reenact an historical event,

but you're doing it with conditions that are completely different, then the outcome isn't going to be the same either. And so that's something that, you know, is troubling about what's motivating. You may get pictures, but it's not going to tell the same story. And so that's why statements like Trump's and statements like Michael Waltz's and Hegseth and Rubio about...

remaining true to Israel's war aims and making them America's war aims in a way that they weren't with the Biden administration is so critical. Because again, everything, whether this is a strategic collapse or the achievement of one of the war goals, releasing the hostages as a means to then go back to, or at this junction and then at the end of this period,

phase one, we go back to achieving goals one and two, eradicating Hamas as a military and political organization and preventing Gaza from ever posing a threat to Israel in the future in 42 days. And we're just going to have to see, but it's very important to keep those in mind. And now we're going to move to Hamas. So again, Hamas, I think I've already said it, so just a sentence here, Hamas wants to survive.

you know, from their position, if Israel collapses, if this is the end, if we end the war without eradicating Hamas, then Hamas is the most successful jihadist organization in recent history, in recent memory, more than Al Qaeda, more than ISIS, more than anybody. And they become the epicenter of global jihad, and they are the, the

guiding light for jihadists all over the world. I would argue that the jihadist who murdered people in the United States on New Year's Eve in New Orleans, he certainly aligned with Hamas and certainly identifies with Hamas. This is obvious. They've been an inspiration as we've seen people marching on the streets all over the world, including throughout the United States since October 7th on behalf of Hamas. It's because they're inspired by Hamas. And if Hamas is seen as coming out of this winter,

and Israel capitulates and doesn't renew its operations, then this will be a gift to global jihad, and it will be an existential threat not only to Israel, but to the nations of the free world. In fact, to all non-Islamic, non-jihadist entities throughout the world. And that's very important to keep in mind, particularly bearing in mind Syria and what's happening in Lebanon as well. So we have to understand that.

Finally, Egypt. So here, Egypt, that's going to be with Qatar in monitoring the traffic or the traffic into northern Gaza after Israel withdraws from the Netsarim quarter, you have to realize that Egypt, too, has played a role of sponsoring Hamas. And it's a story that sort of went under the radar screen, even to a certain degree in Israel, but certainly in the United States. I don't think it's been reported, but it came out in the Israeli media in October.

in dribs and drabs that Abbas Kamal, who was the head of the General Intelligence Service, very, very powerful man in Egypt, was fired in October of last year, 2024, because reports started emerging in Israel that he collaborated with Hamas on October 7th. And how did this happen? He was a trusted confidant or partner of Ronen Bar, who's the head of the Shin Bet.

And on the evening, apparently, this is from sort of scraps of news and information that's come out related to a larger case involving Netanyahu's former military spokesman or military spokesman who's under house arrest named Ellie Feldstein and a NCO in the intelligence service named Ari Rosenblum, who is in jail, arrested.

For apparently very little reason but they exposed apparently to the Prime Minister. This is all apparently apparently it's been reported that Abbas Kamal

had lied to Ronan Barr on the night between October 6th and 7th that Israel started getting these indications that Hamas was about to invade Israel. They turned on their SIM cards, their Israeli SIM cards, which are the clearest indication because they would only be used if they're invading Israel. And thousands of Israeli SIMs all went on simultaneously in Gaza. So that's just like, hello, we're on our way in, right?

And so Ronenbar took this and other telltale signs of Hamas leaderships all going to ground in their underground tunnels, and one or two others. He relayed this information to Abbas Kamal, and Kamal assured him that he knew for a fact that Hamas wasn't intending to invade. So that Hamas, in this sense, received the active collaboration of Egypt in the form of Abbas Kamal, and they didn't, and this is a strategic...

development that it's exposed and for various reasons this was hidden this information was hidden uh from the public and and apparently to from the prime minister anyway this is all as reported I you know it's not been corroborated officially and all of the rest of it but this is what's come out from court documents related to Ali Feldstein and Ari Rosenthal Ari Rosenthal so um

You know, and aside from that, we already know that there were at least 10 smuggling tunnels under the Philadelphia corridor that moved massive amounts of armaments, personnel, and whatever else they wanted from Egypt into Hamas-controlled Gaza in the years and months leading up to the war and arguably until Israel took control over the Philadelphia corridor against the threats, wishes, embargoes of the Biden administration last year. So, yeah,

So those are the people. And so finally, before we get to Netanyahu and where we're supposed to go and how we're supposed to look at this going forward. So if we have a six week hiatus where we allow, we make all of these strategic concessions essentially to Hamas in order to get home our hostages,

What are we supposed to bear in mind? So first of all, we have to bear in mind that Gaza is, of course, a central front in the war because we were invaded from Gaza, but we're in a seven-front war.

so the places that we have to look for indications of what's going to happen at the end of six weeks there are two of them i would say first and foremost it's iran iran is on the cusp of becoming a nuclear-armed state and we know this they're expanding their operations they're rebuilding their anti-aircraft batteries that were destroyed by israel in the in the most recent counter-attack against their massive ballistic missile assault on israel from iran and so

you know, there's been murmurs, statements, whatever, by senior officials and others that, you know, during this period, we're going to take care with the Trump administration support of Iran's nuclear installations. We're going to destroy them. We're going to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear armed state. Netanyahu is going to keep his 30-year promise to the Israeli people, essentially, that he's going to block Iran from achieving nuclear weapons. And so that's

the first thing that we have to look at, if that happens in the next six weeks. The second thing that we have to look at is Judea and Samaria. The Biden administration has aggressively blocked Israel from taking the action required to protect central Israel and the 600,000 Israelis who live in Judea and Samaria from Palestinian terrorists in Judea and Samaria, who in terms of firepower and the expanse of the area are much more of a threat

to Israel's civilian population centers than even what we've seen in Gaza. And we saw the appearance of RPGs in places like Jenin, which is a massive threat to the operations of IDF forces in Judea and Samaria. So if we see a significant, strategically significant uptick in Israel's military operations against

Palestinian terrorists, including in the Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria, we're also going to see a very clear indication that we haven't reached the end of this war. We're concentrating, as Yitzhak Bonsal said, on achieving the third goal of the war, which is the release of hostages, but it's not at the expense of the other two goals of the war. So,

Those are two things that we have to look at. Again, seven front war. Another indicator I think would be if the United States under the Trump administration finally re-assumes America's role as dictated by its own constitution, that it's supposed to, its Navy is supposed to be used to safeguard the,

international shipping lines, right? And so, you know, if the United States finally takes real as opposed to fake action against the Houthis and their use of their control and their continued control over the choke point for maritime traffic at the Bab el-Mandab, then too, we're going to see a very clear indication that the Trump administration is living up to its promise of

to restoring America's credibility as an ally first and foremost to Israel, but really as the leading superpower in the Middle East. So if we see that kind of operation on the part of the United States against the Houthis that are threatening in a very significant way maritime traffic in that key chokehold point in the map of the oceans in the Bab el-Mandab, then that too will be an indication

that this is a six-week move to achieve goal three of the war, which is the release of the hostages and not an abdication. And again, finally, it's just a huge test for Trump. I mean, obviously, Netanyahu's leadership, his premiership, his legacy hinges on that. And here, just one more word about Prime Minister Netanyahu. Prime Minister Netanyahu has proven himself over the past 15 months that he is,

means that when he says that we're going to achieve all of these war goals and we're going to achieve absolute victory in this war. He's earned credit. He's earned our trust over 15 months. And so we have to remember that. We have to remember his resilience. We have to remember his unrelenting determination to achieve the goals of the war at all costs, whatever it takes, under all conditions.

He meant it when he said that we would fight with our fingernails, and we've basically been reduced to that due to the arms embargo that the Biden administration imposed on us several months ago. And we've been fighting tooth and nail, as Yitzhak Bonsal said, with the incredible valiance and courage of our soldiers and with the unrelenting determination of our leader, Prime Minister Netanyahu. It's obvious to everybody who has a modicum of honesty that Israel wouldn't have reached this point if anybody else were at the helm of Israel.

And so as hard as it is, and it's hard because we've given so much in this war and we've been so utterly focused on winning it, this war for our survival, that it's hard to imagine, it's hard to remember that we've only gotten this far. Or one of the key reasons that we've gotten this far, that we wouldn't have gotten this far without is Prime Minister Netanyahu. So he made this decision. He was faced with

conditions that he didn't anticipate with Whitcoff coming in and adopting Biden's plan instead of striking out in a new direction as we had expected with the election of Trump. And he rolled with that. And he's made it very clear that everything is about what happens at the end of phase one. We know where Biden stands on this. We know where Trump stands on this and where his team stands with us. And so his...

His challenge, Netanyahu's challenge, is to achieve that goal. And we'll have to see. I believe in him. And that's why I'm not despairing now, despite the fact that this deal is a bitter pill to swallow because of the achievements that Hamas has accomplished here. It's very hard. And then finally, you know,

We have to remember, and we talked about this with Victor, and this is my last point, you know, Biden, his whole, and not only he, I mean, obviously Obama, but other American presidents as well, including President Carter, who just passed away.

Their idea was that American power in the Middle East is the power to deliver Israel to the Arabs, that because Israel is dependent on the United States for armaments or for protection at the U.N., where the U.S. has a veto and everybody else is happy to just pile on against the Jews, because why not? So you have...

Biden has all along shown how powerful he is by putting it to Israel, right? By taking it to Israel. And that has destroyed his position in the region. He has no influence over anything, you know? And so he's failed because of that. America has failed because of that because the Arabs look at the Americans and say, well, you're not very strong. You're not very scary if you won't even protect Israel. If you won't even stand with Israel, then why should we care what you have to say? You're not going to do anything against us.

And so the key distinction between where Biden has taken America down the hole and where Trump wants to take the United States in making it great again, a great power again in the region and throughout the world is that you stick by your allies, come thick and thin, and recognizing, look at what Israel has accomplished these past 15 months, that we're the bet, we're the strong horse, stand with us, and you'll get anywhere you want to go. You'll get the Abraham Accords.

You know, you'll get security in the shipping lanes in the Middle East, in the Persian Gulf. You'll get everybody wanting to make deals with you, with America, because they trust you. And then you come in, you know, so is Trump going to be that Trump or is Trump going to be the Trump that embraces Biden's idea and sends his special envoy to Jerusalem and says, take Biden's deal from May 31st or else?

So we're going to have to see, but this is a challenge for Trump. This is a test that he brought on himself by embracing Biden's May 31st plan. So everybody is going to be tested here. And our will as a people is going to be tested as well because nobody has, you know, more shattered nerves than the Israeli people over the past 15 months. And despite that, we've stood strong in this war and we've achieved extraordinary things and we haven't lost faith and we've kept going.

And we have to keep doing that. And we're going to be seeing shattering things over the next six weeks of celebrations in Gaza and in Jenin and

wherever and We're gonna have to keep that steely determination that's brought us this far during these six months of suspended Disbelief and just have faith have faith in in our leadership have faith in God have faith in the American people and in the promise of the Trump administration And do what needs to be done because this is a war for a national survival anyway, those are my thoughts and I

Take them or leave them. They're mine. See you later. See you next week, I hope. Take care.