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cover of episode Episode 46: John Kosar, CMT
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David Lundgren
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John Kosar
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Tyler Wood
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David Lundgren: 我认为 John Kosar 的职业生涯完美地诠释了技术分析方法的通用性，他从芝加哥商品交易所的短线交易到现在的资产管理，始终坚持使用技术分析工具。这证明了技术分析方法可以应用于不同的时间框架、地域和资产类别，甚至包括比特币等新型资产。 Tyler Wood: John Kosar 结合了系统化量化方法和经典技术分析工具。他首先使用系统化的模型来筛选市场，识别潜在的投资机会，然后结合经典的技术分析工具，例如 Edwards 和 McGee 的价格形态，对这些机会进行更细致的分析和判断，最终做出交易决策。这种方法兼顾了系统化交易的客观性和经典技术分析的主观判断，是一种行之有效的方法。 John Kosar: 我的交易策略在过去 40 多年里发生了重大变化。早期我主要依赖 Edwards 和 McGee 的价格形态和动量指标进行交易。但随着时间的推移，我越来越关注市场内部的指标，例如市场广度、波动率和不同资产之间的相对表现，这些指标可以帮助我判断市场整体的健康状况，而不是仅仅关注价格的短期波动。现在，我使用这些市场内部指标来判断市场环境（风险偏好），并结合风险和回报模型来选择合适的ETF进行投资。价格指标现在更多的是用来辅助判断风险和回报，而不是作为主要的决策依据。我使用动态止损位，而不是固定的止损位，并结合经验判断来避免因市场操纵而导致的止损。我的模型是系统化的，但交易执行是基于经验的，两者结合使用。在选择ETF时，我会先进行初步筛选，再结合技术分析进行最终选择，有时会选择多个类似的ETF进行比较。市场环境的变化要求对技术分析方法进行调整，例如对市场广度和成交量的解读。我使用多种技术指标构建模型，并通过回测优化，其中市场广度和成交量是重要的组成部分，我使用累积成交量指标来代替原始成交量指标。我主要关注的是整体市场的广度指标，例如纽约证券交易所的成交量加权平均股价指数（AD线）。尽管我对加密货币持谨慎态度，但考虑到其日益增长的主流地位，我们正在开发相应的交易模型。我更关注的是如何规避风险，而不是预测市场方向，我认为 2025 年将是战术型投资者获得成功的一年，及时行动比被迫行动更重要，技术分析能够帮助投资者识别风险信号并及时止损。

Deep Dive

Chapters
John Kosar discusses his career journey from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange floor to founding Asbury Research and Asbury Investment Management. He shares how his early experiences on the trading floor influenced his technical analysis approach and eventual transition to asset management.
  • John Kosar began his career on the CME trading floor in the 1980s.
  • He transitioned from trading to asset management due to the decline of open outcry trading.
  • Kosar founded Asbury Research and Asbury Investment Management after leaving the trading floor.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association, we welcome John Kosar, CMT, President and Chief Market Strategist at Asbury Research. After spending most of the first half of his 40-year career on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor, he has spent much of the second half trying to take emotions out of the equation by becoming as data-driven as possible. John describes some of the indicators and models he and his son, Jack, combine into portfolios of varying risk/reward profiles to meet the needs of different types of investors.

Fill the Gap, hosted by David Lundgren, CMT, CFA and Tyler Wood, CMT brings veteran market analysts and money managers onto a monthly podcast.

For complete show notes of every episode, visit: https://cmtassociation.org/development/podcasts/ Give us a shout:@dlundgren3333 or https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-lundgren-cmt-cfa-63b73b/@_TBone_Pickens or https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-wood-cmt-b8b0902/@CMTAssociation orhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/cmtassociationCMT Association is the global credentialing authority committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis in the financial services industry. We serve members in over 137 countries. Our mission is to elevate investors mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets through a rigorous credentialing process, professional ethics, and continuous education. CMT Association formed in the late 1960s with headquarters in lower Manhattan, NY and Mumbai, India.Learn more at: www.cmtassociation.org